Is lithium even rare enough to matter? I've read that the Salton sea may contain enough lithium to supply years of demand anyways. From my observation, it isn't the presence of lithium that matters. It's how to cheaply exploit it into a commercial product. For most purposes this just boils down to "mine it somewhere without environmental regulations"
USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
201–210 of 237 posts
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
> cost of ripping open huge swaths of earth to get at the raw material. This mining offsets mining for other things that is happening at several orders of magnitude larger scale. Oil, coal, gas, etc. mining is huge and lithium batteries plus renewables are already reducing the need for those. So, the transition to renewables and batteries might actually result in a net reduction of mining. Of course doing lithium min…
> ”And of course the lithium that is mined can be used and recycled over and over again. Once it is in circulation, we'll be re-using it forever. And given the improvements in battery tech, production processes, etc. the amount currently in circulation is likely to power a larger amount of battery capacity when we do recycle it eventually. Even when considering inevitable losses during recycling.” This point is overl…
I understand the argument that it’s a net positive if we reduce mining, but the ideal green solution probably doesn’t include mining. It’s accessing a limited resource in a way that damages local ecosystems. It’s admitting a comprise.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#203ugh i really don't want people to mine in the mobile basin. that's one of the most diverse ecosystems in north america. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j9coyJeB4Q
A significant reason the real holders of power in the world today are Saudi Arabia and China is because we've refused to gather and use our resources while they have theirs. It's high time we realize that Pax Americana is our era to lose, (re)start mining and (re)start development.
we are already extracting a lot of resources around the mobile bay. i recommend that you do some research before you post knee jerk contrarianism comments
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#204There's also a big lithium deposit in Nevada, and preparations for mining are underway there.[1] General Motors put in $650 million for guaranteed access to the output of this Thacker Mine. It's in a caldera in a mountain that I-80 bypassed to go through Winnemuca, Nevada. Nearest town is Mill City, NV, which is listed as a ghost town, despite being next to I-80 and a main line railroad track. The mine site is about…
Not everyone agrees that this is a good place for a mine: https://www.protectthackerpass.org/ "to shut down the tar sands, we actually have to shut down the tar sands, not just blow up other mountains elsewhere and hope that leads to the end of the tar sands." https://maxwilbert.substack.com/p/the-long-shadow-of-the-tar...
You'll never obtain universal agreement for a mine, because there will always be a contingent for whom the correct number of mines is zero. They'll never put it that way, of course. But the decision process they exhibit is "new mine? no", and the consequence of realizing those preferences would be zero new mines.
Fortunately, checking to make sure the entire Internet does not have a website disagreeing with the decision to start a mine, is not part of the process by which mining is started.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#205Say Lithium becomes essentially free because we find so much of it…would that drastically lower battery costs? Is our current supply of lithium limiting production?
Is sand essentially free because we have beaches and deserts full of it? It can be used to make concrete, a valuable material? (Don't forget the shipping, storage, and refining costs)
Not the greatest analogy since the sand found in deserts isn't used for making concrete (wind-blown sand is too rounded/smooth), and there's actually a global shortage of the appropriate (alluvial, iirc) type.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
RF is a heavy hitter when it comes to tabular data. XGBoost is good as well, but more often than not needs and autotuner to really unlock it (e.g pycaret).
XGBoost models are random forest models. They’re also just consistently better for very little effort.
Not only RF, they incorporate GBM too as I understand it.
Often they are the best "just run it and forget it" but compared to tuning they don't always achieve top -- sometimes surprisingly so.
XGBoost and similar are solid first stops in model building.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
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Actually it looks like their arguments are presented entirely in terms of tradeoffs. They argue that the carbon benefit from electric cars (cited as very far down the list on e.g. https://drawdown.org/solutions/table-of-solutions ) isn’t worth the cost to biodiversity, water use and pollution, cultural values and history, peacefulness and tranquility, etc. https://www.protectthackerpass.org/mining-lithium-at-thacker.…
Frankly, these articles are obviously written from a very left-wing perspective with essentially no relevance on the American political stage.
None of the opinions stated in the protect* article are close to majority.
> > Benson’s argument is that “mining critical metals is a necessity for a greener future.” But I would ask—a necessity for whom? For example, do child slaves laboring in Congolese cobalt mines call this necessary? Cobalt is an essential ingredient in mobile phones and electric vehicle batteries, but those kids aren’t driving Tesla’s and listening to podcasts all day. They need liberation, not consumer toys.
“Liberation” is not the solution to extreme poverty in the Congo/DRC. You either need to convince wealthier societies to do vast wealth transfers or find a way to bootstrap a stronger economy, which very well might involve lithium mining.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Additionally, that area in Nevada can be - at best - charitably described as moonscape. Which, for those of us that like moonscape, is a bit sad. But there is a lot of moonscape in that region, and there aren’t a huge number of moonscape fans. At least that are going to try to picket any projects. So overall, meh. That area of Nevada is also pretty economically ‘challenged’, so why not.
Also, at some point you need to tell people "you don't own this land, so you don't get to say what gets done to it." I'm half expecting the future more conservative SCOTUS to shoot down land use regulation as a taking, requiring such regulation to be combined with payment for the value lost instead.
Thacker Pass appears to be federally owned (Bureau of Land Managment) land.
The public does own this land and does deserve some degree of a say in what's done with it.
I have no issue with this project, and I certainly don't think that means a loud but tiny opposition should be able to derail it, just noting that this isn't private property and thus public oversight should be higher.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#209> "the amount of lithium present would meet projected 2030 world demand for lithium in car batteries nine times over" Does that mean the entire field has enough lithium for the requirements of 2030, 9 times? Or in other words, it can supply the lithium needs of car batteries from 2030 to 2039? That's not particularly long...
Lithium is infinitely recyclable. We cannot really predict lithium demand in 2039, because technology changes much. Look at steel. Most of the steel used is recycled steel, we don’t mine a lot of it any more. If you asked someone 90 years ago, they would have assumed global steel demand would continue to rise.
In the USA, most steel is recycled. Most of the rest of the world uses basic oxygen furnace by wide margin.
Re: USGS uses machine learning to show large lithium potential in Arkansas
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also, at some point you need to tell people "you don't own this land, so you don't get to say what gets done to it." I'm half expecting the future more conservative SCOTUS to shoot down land use regulation as a taking, requiring such regulation to be combined with payment for the value lost instead.
Thacker Pass appears to be federally owned (Bureau of Land Managment) land. The public does own this land and does deserve some degree of a say in what's done with it. I have no issue with this project, and I certainly don't think that means a loud but tiny opposition should be able to derail it, just noting that this isn't private property and thus public oversight should be higher.
Yes, and that degree of say comes in the form of voting.