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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#201

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

brookst wrote: post #27
jsheard wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

Is there any reason to believe costs won’t come down with scale and hardware iteration, just like they did for everything else? Short term pricing inefficiency is not relevant to long term impact.

Of course, but every token generated by a 100B model is going to take minimally 100B FLOPS, and if this is being used as an IDE typing assistant then there is going to be a lot of tokens being generated.

If there is a common shift to using additional runtime compute to improve quality of output, such as OpenAI's GPT-o1, then FLOPs required goes up massively (OpenAI has said it takes exponential increase in FLOPS/cost to generate linear gains in quality).

So, while costs will of course decrease, those $20-30K NVIDEA chips are going to be kept burring, and are not going to pay for themselves ...

This may end up like the shift to cloud computing that sounds good in theory (save the cost of running your own data center), but where corporate America balks when the bill comes in. It may well be that the endgame for corporate AI is to run free tools from the likes of Meta (or open source) in their own datacenter, or maybe even locally on "AI PCs".

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#202

Post by sensanaty »

Roark66 wrote: post #139
binocarlos wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

I can't understand how anyone can use these tools (copilot especially) to make entire projects from scratch and expand them later. They just lead you down the wrong path 90% of the time. Personally I much prefer Chatgpt. I give it specific small problems to resolve and some context. At most 100 lines of code. If it gets more the quality goes to shit. In fact copilot feels like chatgpt that was given too much context.

I hear it all the time on HN that people are producing entire apps with LLMs, but I just don't believe it.

All of my experiences with LLMs have been that for anything that isn't a braindead-simple for loop is just unworkable garbage that takes more effort to fix than if you just wrote it from scratch to begin with. And then you're immediately met with "You're using it wrong!", "You're using the wrong model!", "You're prompting it wrong!" and my favorite, "Well, it boosts my productivity a ton!".

I sat down with the "AI Guru" as he calls himself at work to see how he works with it and... He doesn't. He'll ask it something, write an insanely comprehensive prompt, and it spits out... Generic trash that looks the same as the output I ask of it when I provide it 2 sentences total, and it doesn't even work properly. But he still stands by it, even though I'm actively watching him just dump everything he just wrote up for the AI and start implementing things himself. I don't know what to call this phenomenon, but it's shocking to me.

Even something that should be in its wheelhouse like producing simple test cases, it often just isn't able to do it to a satisfactory level. I've tried every one of these shitty things available in the market because my employer pays for it (I would never in my life spend money on this crap), and it just never works. I feel like I'm going crazy reading all the hype, but I'm slowly starting to suspect that most of it is just covert shilling by vested persons.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#203

Post by Mistletoe »

imaginationra wrote: post #153

Grifters gonna grift- My nerd hype died as I used gpt4+ and Claude 3.5+ whatever for coding tasks and realized if a human somewhere in the training data hadn't already solved a programming problem/wrote code for a solution the LLM's are useless for said problem. They're useful as an assistant/junior coder to do repetitive tasks/things you/other humans already have already done tho. BUT that's not going to revolutioni…

I was watching Alien last night and as they talked with Mother it was refreshing to see the ship computer just say “I don’t know” when it didn’t know something. If we could get our LLMs there it would be a nice step forward. You can definitely tell ours were made in Silicon Valley, home of the bullshit and fake it till you make it.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#204

Post by drawkward »

brookst wrote: post #22
isodev wrote: post #19

I'm absolutely flabbergasted how much money and political capital is spent on vaporware, while there are very concrete and very impactful challenges we could be addressing instead.

There’s a lot of money to be made if you can reliable distinguish the two in advance.

There's even more money to be made off the backs of those who can't.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#205

Post by skwee357 »

JanSt wrote: post #80
lynx23 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I get where your fascinaton comes from... > I'm more productive than ever before. You realize that another way to read that sentence is "I am a really bad coder".

Maybe I am, but I'm getting pretty rich doing it, so there is that. :)

The fact that you make money using AI, has nothing to do with its usefulness for society/humanity.

There are people who are getting “pretty rich” by trafficking humans, or selling drugs. Would you want to live in a society where such activities are encouraged? In the end, we need to look at technological progress (or any progress for that matter) as where it will bring us to in the future, rather than what it allows you to do now.

It also pisses me off that software engineering has such a bad reputation that everyone, from common folks to the CEO of nvidia, is shitting on it. You don’t hear phrases like “AI is going to change medicine/structural engineering”, because you would shit your pants if you had to sit in a dentist chair, while the dentist would ask ChatGPT how to perform a root canal; or if you had to live in a house designed by a structural engineer whose buddy was Claude. And yet, somehow, everyone is ready to throw software engineers under the bus and label them as "useless"/easily replaceable by AI.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#206

Post by maroonblazer »

gambiting wrote: post #187
aniviacat wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current LLMs fail if what you're coding is not the most common of tasks. And a simple web app is about as basic as it gets. I've tried using LLMs for some libraries I'm working on, and they failed miserably. Trying to make an LLM implement a trait with a generic type in Rust is a game of luck with very poor chances. I'm sure LLMs can massively speed up tasks like front-end JavaScript development, simple Python script…

I work in video games, I've tried several AI assistants for C++ coding and they are all borderline useless for anything beyond writing some simple for loops. Not enough training data to be useful I bet, but I guess that's where the disparity is - web apps, python....that has tonnes of publicly available code that it can train on. Writing code that manages GPU calls on a PS5? Yeah, good luck with that.

Presumably Sony is sitting on decades worth of code for each of the PlayStation architectures. How long before they're training their own models and making those available to their studios' developers?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#207

Post by EraYaN »

iphoneisbetter wrote: post #165
CharlieDigital wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Build fabs Such a misguided take. If it were that easy to build fabs to compete with TSMC, Intel would do it. China would do it. Hardware is way harder than software.

Or maybe, just maybe, TSMC has gaslit all of us to think it is much harder than it really is. If Taiwan isn't needed for its chips, what is the strategic interest of the USG?

TSMC has way to many competitors for this to make sense. And besides one very important key supplier who has huge wait lists for their EUV stuff, ASML.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#208

Post by petee »

brookst wrote: post #22
isodev wrote: post #19

I'm absolutely flabbergasted how much money and political capital is spent on vaporware, while there are very concrete and very impactful challenges we could be addressing instead.

There’s a lot of money to be made if you can reliable distinguish the two in advance.

My grandma loved to remind my dad about how he didn't think CDs would become a thing, and to not invest in Philips (as i recall)

And he was tech savy, building circuits, computers etc, he just didn't think it would be reliable or better than what existed... definitely a vinyl guy.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#209

Post by CharlieDigital »

klhah wrote: post #186
CharlieDigital wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Build fabs Such a misguided take. If it were that easy to build fabs to compete with TSMC, Intel would do it. China would do it. Hardware is way harder than software.

Threatening to build fabs is not addressed at you but designed to trigger idiot politicians with influence to unlock CHIPS money. The politicians do not know or care if building fabs is possible.

US is already throwing CHIPS dollars at Intel whose latest chips are made by...TSMC

https://www.pcworld.com/article/2355435/intels-lunar-lake-is...

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#210

Post by cml123 »

binocarlos wrote: post #30
jsheard wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

yes, but does your colleague even fully understand what was generated? Does he have a good mental map of the organization of the project?

I have a good mental map of the projects I work on because I wrote them myself. When new business problems emerge, I can picture how to solve them using the different components of those applications. If I hadn't actually written the application myself, that expertise would not exist.

Your colleague may have a working application, but I seriously doubt he understands it in the way that is usually needed for maintaining it long term. I am not trying to be pessimistic, but I _really_ worry about these tools crippling an entire generation of programmers.

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