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Artificial intelligence is losing hype

economist.com

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Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#201

Post by psb217 »

hnfong wrote: post #147
floppiplopp wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Weizenbaum demonstrated Eliza to his colleagues, some thought there was an intelligent consciousness at the heart of it. Few even continued to believe this after they were shown the source code, which they were able to read and understand. Human consciousness is full of biases and the most advanced AI cannot reliably determine which of two floats is bigger or even solve really simple logic puzzles for little kid…

At this point bringing up the ELIZA argument is basically bad faith gaslighting… Finding bugs in some models doesn’t mean you have a point about intelligence. If somebody could apply a similar argument to dismiss human intelligence, you don’t have a point. And here it goes: the most advanced human intelligence can’t reliably multiply large numbers or recall digits of Pi. Obviously humans are dumber than pocket calcul…

Your counterargument is invalid. The most advanced human intelligence invented (or discovered) concepts like multiplication, pi, etc., and created tools to work around the ways in which these concepts aren't well handled by their biological substrate. When machine intelligences start inventing biological tools to overcome the limits of their silicon existence, you'll have a point.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#202

Post by nerdjon »

I feel like I have to disagree, even though I really don't want too. This technology is seriously overhyped.

We have to realize that there is a ton of money right now behind pushing AI everywhere. We have entire conventions for leadership pushing that a year later "is the time to move AI to Prod" or "Moving past the skeptics".

We have investors seemingly asking every company they invest in "how are you using generative AI" before investing. We have Microsoft, Google, and Apple (to a lesser degree) forcing AI down our throats whether we like it or not and ignoring any reliability (inaccurate) issues.

FFS Microsoft is pushing AI as a serious branding part of Windows going forward.

We have too much money committed to pushing the idea that we already have general AI, too much marketing, etc.

Consumer hype and money in this situation are going to be very different things. I do think a bust is going to happen, but I don't think in any meaningful way the "hype" has died down. I think and I hope it will die down, we keep seeing how the technology just simply can't do what they are claiming. But I honestly don't think it is going to happen until something catastrophic happens, and it is going to be ugly when it does. Hopefully your company won't be so reliant on it to not recover.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#205

Post by b_be_building »

randcraw wrote: post #83
ChaitanyaSai wrote: post #52

I've trained as a neuroscientist and written a book about consciousness. I've worked in machine learning and built products for over 20 years and now use AI a fair bit in the ed-tech work we do. So I've seen how the field has progressed and also have been able to look at it from a perspective most AI/engineering people don't -- what does this artificial intelligence look like when compared to biological intelligence.…

I've worked in AI for the past 30 years and have seen enthusiasm as robust as yours go bust before. Just because some kinds of narrow AI have done extraordinarily well -- namely those tasks that recognize patterns using connections between FSMs -- does not mean that same mechanisms will continue to scale up to human-level cognition, much less exceed it any time soon. The breakthroughs where deep AI have excelled -- o…

I have been using Chat-GPT has a full time expert and I can unequivocally tell you that its a transformative piece of technology. The technology isn't hyped.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#206

Post by j-a-a-p »

TL;DR, article is not so much about AI, it is more about Gartner's hype cycle. According the Economist data only 25% of tech hypes follow this pattern. Many more (no percentage given) are just a flash in the pan.

AI is following more a seasonal pattern with a AI Winters, can we expect a new winter soon?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#207

Post by _acco »

AI (specifically Claude Sonnet via Cursor) has completely transformed my workflow. It's changed my job description as a programmer. (And I've been doing this for 13y – no greenhorn!)

This wasn't the case with GPT-4/o. This capability is very new.

When I spoke to a colleague at Microsoft about these changes, they were floored. Microsoft has made themselves synonymous with AI, yet their company is barely even leveraging it. The big cos have put in the biggest investments, but also will be the slowest to change their processes and workflows to realize the shift.

Feels like one of those "future is here, not evenly distributed yet" moments. When a tool like Sonnet is released, it's not like big tech cos are going to transform over night. There's a massive capability overhang that will take some time to work itself through these (now) slow-moving companies.

I assume it was the same with the internet/dot-com crash.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#208

Post by BoingBoomTschak »

b_be_building wrote: post #205
randcraw wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked in AI for the past 30 years and have seen enthusiasm as robust as yours go bust before. Just because some kinds of narrow AI have done extraordinarily well -- namely those tasks that recognize patterns using connections between FSMs -- does not mean that same mechanisms will continue to scale up to human-level cognition, much less exceed it any time soon. The breakthroughs where deep AI have excelled -- o…

I have been using Chat-GPT has a full time expert and I can unequivocally tell you that its a transformative piece of technology. The technology isn't hyped.

It is very nice as "Markov chains on steroids", but people believing that LLMs are anything but a distracting local maximum on the path to AGI are 200% in kool-aid drinking mode.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#209

Post by biomcgary »

psb217 wrote: post #201
hnfong wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point bringing up the ELIZA argument is basically bad faith gaslighting… Finding bugs in some models doesn’t mean you have a point about intelligence. If somebody could apply a similar argument to dismiss human intelligence, you don’t have a point. And here it goes: the most advanced human intelligence can’t reliably multiply large numbers or recall digits of Pi. Obviously humans are dumber than pocket calcul…

Your counterargument is invalid. The most advanced human intelligence invented (or discovered) concepts like multiplication, pi, etc., and created tools to work around the ways in which these concepts aren't well handled by their biological substrate. When machine intelligences start inventing biological tools to overcome the limits of their silicon existence, you'll have a point.

Isn't the comment you are responding to an example of: "When machine intelligences start inventing biological tools to overcome the limits of their silicon existence, you'll have a point"?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#210

Post by ch4s3 »

_acco wrote: post #207

AI (specifically Claude Sonnet via Cursor) has completely transformed my workflow. It's changed my job description as a programmer. (And I've been doing this for 13y – no greenhorn!) This wasn't the case with GPT-4/o. This capability is very new. When I spoke to a colleague at Microsoft about these changes, they were floored. Microsoft has made themselves synonymous with AI, yet their company is barely even leveragin…

What do you see as your biggest wins using Claude?
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