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China's manufacturers are going broke

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Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#201
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea of reunification is less popular than it's ever been in Taiwan since Taiwan's Nation Chengchi University started polling in the late 1990s. What you don't seem to understand is that unification is most supported among the older generations in Taiwan. With time, Taiwan will only become less open to the idea of reunification as the older generations die off. Currently less than 10% support the idea, down from…

Yes, I'm aware US propaganda can be effective. I'm talking about the post-US future, where China is the top dog. They're heading there.

This is more of what I'm talking about. It's evident you've never talked with a Taiwanese. The younger generations of Taiwanese don't oppose the idea of reunification because they don't like China, due to this idea of US propaganda you have, but because they don't feel Chinese, due to living independent from the PRC for their entire lives. Have you ever asked yourself why they would care to entertain the idea of "reunification" to a country they had never been a part of?

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never sensed any real desire for China to offshore to the Philippines, given its military alliance with the US. Maybe they dangle the prospect from time to time to try to pry the Philippines away. They have much friendlier targets in Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Malaysia at the top of the list.

Not only that, but the Philippines has a tiny manufacturing sector compared to other major SEA economies. [1][2] I wonder if grandparent was thinking of a different country. [1] > In 2021, the economic mix of the Philippine economy was approximately 61% services, 17.6% manufacturing, and 10.1% agriculture. ( https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/philippines-... ) [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Call_cen…

> I wonder if grandparent was thinking of a different country

Nope! I was speaking of offshoring mostly in the services industry, not the manufacturing industry[1]. Things like call centers (as you linked.) Chinese companies like BBK use Philippines call centres to serve customers in English-language markets. Which isn't at-all uncommon—the US does the same thing—but China hadn't been doing much offshoring of any kind until the last decade, and the little they have done has focused almost solely onto the Philippines.

There's also something that you might not exactly call "offshoring", but it's a related idea. It's a combination of "exclave-building" and "foreign investment": Chinese companies responding to increasing levels of Chinese tourism in the Philippines by buying up Filipino companies (most visibly in the hospitality industry, but also everywhere from construction to finance) and modifying those companies to cater more to Chinese-audience interests; then, within China, promoting tourism to the Philippines — and specifically to those cities they've built up a presence within — to increase ROI on those investments. From a Filipino perspective, this was kind of a virtuous cycle, as it resulted in a lot of money being pumped into their economy. But this too has now sharply declined.

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[1] But why hasn't China begun to outsource manufacturing yet?

AFAIK, it's because the Chinese manufacturing sector has so much inertia — so much built up talent, so much invested CapEx, so many local partner relationships, so many achieved efficiencies of scale — that even if domestic labor prices seriously rise within China, it'll take a long time before companies are willing to bite the bullet and invest in moving any of that.

And it's also a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem: if you first offshore some middle step of manufacturing, the rest of the manufacturing process would still be cheapest for you [with your existing China-based processes] to continue to do in China; so now you'll have to ship raw goods out to the offshoring country, and then bring processed goods back into China for finishing. And during that, you'll be in competition with "full-pipeline Chinese" companies that aren't bothering to do that.

IMHO I'd mostly only expect China to offshore steps that either exist at the beginning or end of a manufacturing process. Especially origination of raw goods, e.g. mining. Which would seemingly be the long-term goal of China's infrastructure investments in various African countries.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#203

These are some staggering numbers: 52 thousand Chinese EV companies shut down last year. Xi Jinping (successfully) stimulated EV and semiconductor manufacturing through massive government investment and loans. The problem is that so many companies were funded that they are now viciously driving each other out of business through oversupply. Because the supply chain networks are so dense, each bankruptcy easily cascad…

The US report 453 thousand bankruptcy filings in 2023. There are 33 million small businesses in the US. Etc, etc, etc. Big numbers are hard to put in perspective - which the very fine article was very careful NOT to do. Obviously it was not 52 thousand large companies but there again, one would need comparative numbers to say for sure. On top of which most single large corporations usually owns dozens to thousands of separately incorporated units. Who knows what that number is about.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the profit margin is 10% then a 10% reduction in total material and labour cost more than doubles your profit margin if you keep your prices the same. So how small a part of the total is the module cost? Even if you can only save 5% you still make more than 50% extra profit.

The price per watt for rooftop PV system installations varies dramatically from country to country in the west. Where I live in Canada the average cost is about $2 USD per watt installed (for a 7-10kW system). In Australia, the same system costs about $0.66 USD per watt installed. That means for a 10kW system I'm looking at $20k USD in Canada vs. $6600 USD in Australia. That's such a huge difference that 5-10% cost r…

It might not make a difference to the end user but the installer would still make a more profit.

Also I doubt that you can compare Australian and Canadian installations that easily. Most of Australia is a lot closer to the equator meaning that the same panel will have a higher average output there than in Canada.

Anyway, I'm not in the US. My question was a general one about taking advantage of these economic troubles, treating them as an opportunity for someone to make a profit rather than simply regarding them as a problem for everyone.

The Canadian price seems a bit high, comparable with high cost Norway (where I live). The online calculator I have just checked is offering a 6.5 kWp system for about 10 kUSD, so your 20 kUSD would buy 13 kWp. I know why it's expensive in Norway, skilled manual labour costs are high, is that the same in Canada?

It's similarly difficult to justify though. At the sorts of electricity prices we had in Norway before 2022 it would take 20 years to pay back but if the trend to increasing rices continues that could fall to as little as 7 years.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#205
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US government has put a lot of effort into isolating China from the Phillippines. It's just statecraft and covert influence campaigns, nothing to do with the moral supremacy of anti-imperialism. Moralizing arguments such as this one are FUD.

This comment ignores the facts of Chinese naval activities that many of their neighbors, including the Philippines, are wary of. You can say that US diplomacy is taking advantage of these facts in a way you don't like, but pretending the facts do not exist makes it necessary for people who do know them to ignore you.

"Ignores" is a strong word, I did nothing of the sort.

The Phillippines has the opportunity to deal with their relationship with China themselves, or the US can whisper in the ears of its leaders to take certain actions, making promises to them that make the offer all but irresistible.

The way you framed your comment makes it seem like you think the Phillippines is what, too noble of a country to bend under US influence?

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price per watt for rooftop PV system installations varies dramatically from country to country in the west. Where I live in Canada the average cost is about $2 USD per watt installed (for a 7-10kW system). In Australia, the same system costs about $0.66 USD per watt installed. That means for a 10kW system I'm looking at $20k USD in Canada vs. $6600 USD in Australia. That's such a huge difference that 5-10% cost r…

It might not make a difference to the end user but the installer would still make a more profit. Also I doubt that you can compare Australian and Canadian installations that easily. Most of Australia is a lot closer to the equator meaning that the same panel will have a higher average output there than in Canada. Anyway, I'm not in the US. My question was a general one about taking advantage of these economic trouble…

Also I doubt that you can compare Australian and Canadian installations that easily. Most of Australia is a lot closer to the equator meaning that the same panel will have a higher average output there than in Canada.

The costs I gave are for the ratings of the panels themselves. They don't include differences in production due to sunlight hours. If you include those I wouldn't be surprised if the Australian figures were closer to 10x better than Canada once you factor in the sunlight hours.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Work what? I think Ctrl+F China + collapse arguments still doesn't work. 1) Consumption is "sluggish", i.e. it's small positive growth instead of large precovid positive growth. It's not negative decline let alone collapse. Get off the FLG. Employment rate steady, including new grads at 20% accounting for those in school and not looking for work (i.e. the Chinese tertiary way), 40%-50% for graduate cohorts who takes…

> Who said EV was suppose to rescue PRC economy? "How are China's 'new three' export pillars powering the economy?". https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-03-07/How-are-China-s-new-th... EV is literally one of the key pillars championed by the Chinese government as part of its 'new economy' initiative, straight from the horse's mouth.

Of course state media is effusively celebrating new industry export success as it's achieving major policy goals. It's acknowledging that they're new pillars "powering" the export economy as in contributing to significant part of new export _growth_. Which is not to be (mis)construed as these exports are "rescuing" a "collapsed" economy as OP insinuates which is retarded tier analysis. New industries -> some of of 1T/6T (yuan) growth last year from a 126T (again yuan) economy (>0.7% assuming PRC exported 0 of those things in 2022). As as incorrigible OP is, even he recognize this is around 1% of economy, i.e. most of growth is still internal, non export driven.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#209
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Work what? I think Ctrl+F China + collapse arguments still doesn't work. 1) Consumption is "sluggish", i.e. it's small positive growth instead of large precovid positive growth. It's not negative decline let alone collapse. Get off the FLG. Employment rate steady, including new grads at 20% accounting for those in school and not looking for work (i.e. the Chinese tertiary way), 40%-50% for graduate cohorts who takes…

>Who said EV was suppose to rescue PRC economy? the gov is heavily investing & publicizing "New productive forces"[] that include "new energy vehicles" []: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_productive_forces []: https://www.miit.gov.cn/zwgk/zcwj/wjfb/yj/art/2024/art_ad15b...

Yes, EV export up 70% YoY but is minority part of exports, less than 1T out of 24T yuan total exports of which export itself is ~20% of 126T economy, aka export itself is not driving most of PRC growth. Maybe 0.5% of ~5 or 10% of new growth which is a lot, but also 90% of again, growth is happening not because of EV. If you remove EV success PRC is still growing, not collapsing. OP is pretending subtracting 5-1 is some negative collpase number, when it's just slightly less positive. When I said EV is not suppose to rescue the economy, I mean economy is not suddenly going to turn negative if you remove EV, or most of the new industries, which is just another rebranding for all the strategic industries in MIC 2025, most of which will create biggest economic impact via domestic substitution before exports.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing hidden about it.

It is not officially a recognized politburo. The Eastern approach to these top down systems is to have a overt power structure whereas such a structure is denied in the West even though as you say it is all in the open.

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