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Batteries: How cheap can they get?

aukehoekstra.substack.com

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Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#201

Post by jsnell »

> If we start with 2410 GWh in 2023 and grow with 59% per year that gives us 61.917 GWh in 2030. That would mean almost exactly 8 doublings in 2030.

There's an order of magnitude error here. That's an increase of about 26x. 8 doublings would require an increase of 256x.

Now, anyone can make a simple math error. But, like, it should be totally obvious to anyone that 7 years of 60% annual growth can't possibly be anywhere near 8 years of 100% annual growth? Or if not anyone, then at least for someone like the author who spends the first page of the article bragging about their credentials in reasoning about exponential growth.

Edit: and this isn't just nitpicking, this faulty result is then used as the basis of the cost reduction estimates.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#202

Post by hippich »

duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

Can you share places the I can get 1kwh if batteries for 89/kw shipped? I am waiting for a 14kw diy build set at 122/kw, that's the best I could find on Alibaba

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#203

Post by callmemclovin »

ValentineC wrote: post #195
duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

> Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. I'm probably not the only one wondering: does ordering from these Chinese suppliers require reaching out to them over email? I looked at both…

Yeah I think if you want to order from CATL directly, your chances for a reply are better if your order is worth some billions :-)

EVE cells are very famous in the DIY scene, you can get them via Alibaba/Aliexpress, or if you're in Europe from nkon.nl, they have a very good reputation.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#204

Post by callmemclovin »

oezi wrote: post #78
duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

Current European/German prices for home storage of 2-10kwh are at 400-500 EUR per kwh. https://geizhals.de/?cat=bmseswresp&sort=t&hloc=at&hloc=de&v...

From that page: Pylontech 5 kWh for 1198€ - so 250€/kWh is also possible :-)

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#205

Post by callmemclovin »

kkfx wrote: post #72
duffpkg wrote: post #19

Lifepo4 (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for the home are pretty cheap as of today. Power storage for residential use in a 48v metal rackable linkable system with battery management system (BMS) is $89/kwh shipped/duty paid from reputable chinese suppliers CATL/Seplos etc. You have to wait for sea shipping, add $30/kwh if you want to buy it in the US today. From the same suppliers sodium batteries are currently $13…

Well, here, France, LFP batteries now cost MUCH MORE than just three years ago (final customer price) and... ~1000€ per kWh, while just 3 years ago they was a bit less than 700€ per kWh, the battery alone (with BMS etc) but we also need an inverter witch as well is not much more expensive and I talk about self-assembled systems, here legal, but not legal in large slice of the EU, because retail price of a complete in…

Well with the DIY route that's not a problem - nkon.nl is shipping to France as well, I guess? So there you can get EVE 280 Ah cells for about 100 €/kWh: https://www.nkon.nl/fr/rechargeable/lifepo4/prismatisch/eve-...

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#206

Post by lazide »

h0l0cube wrote: post #184
lazide wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also prone to average people setting themselves or their houses on fire, eh?

Depends on how scrupulous Average Person is being. There's codes for electrical and solar installations that can be followed, and it's best to stick to the letter, even if you're certain it doesn't apply. And after that, you should get it certified by a licensed professional, but would also need a licensed professional to hook it up to the grid

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m trying to say.

I’m talking about assembling your own multi-kwh lithium battery assemblies (pre-BMS even).

One wrong poke with a screwdriver, and all sorts of entertainment is likely to ensue eh?

And they’re big enough, no portable fire extinguisher is going to make a dent either.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#207

Post by defrost »

lazide wrote: post #206
h0l0cube wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on how scrupulous Average Person is being. There's codes for electrical and solar installations that can be followed, and it's best to stick to the letter, even if you're certain it doesn't apply. And after that, you should get it certified by a licensed professional, but would also need a licensed professional to hook it up to the grid

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m trying to say. I’m talking about assembling your own multi-kwh lithium battery assemblies (pre-BMS even). One wrong poke with a screwdriver, and all sorts of entertainment is likely to ensue eh? And they’re big enough, no portable fire extinguisher is going to make a dent either.

Sure, you're saying some people shouldn't DIY.

Where I live many people DIY as a great many people have mad skills (lots of FiFo workers making a good living from O&G installions and big mining projects).

They build their own houses, their own planes, off grid power systems, water proof EV's to drive across harbour floors, etc.

If you've got a big (shipping container sized) battery pack you need a big thermal blanket to cut off the oxygen or a wide enough fire break about it.

Speaking of DIY home builds, here's a good use of black builders plastic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ILbQHnHPnY

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#209

Post by happymellon »

fouc wrote: post #142
iamthemonster wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This approach may vary by country. Not a single sparky in Australia will sign off on someone else's solar/battery install.

Isn't there a distinction between the house wiring and the solar/battery stuff? P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie.

We use sparky in the UK for an electrician too.

Re: Batteries: How cheap can they get?

#210

Post by unwind »

selcuka wrote: post #147
fouc wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't there a distinction between the house wiring and the solar/battery stuff? P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie.

> P.S. I've never heard of sparky being used as slang for an electrician, sounds very aussie. When I moved into a new house in Australia I asked the real estate agent if I could extend the fence, and he said I'd need a cheapie to do that. I said ok but scratched my head as to why it needs to be cheap, only to find out later what he actually said was chippy, slang for a carpenter.

Why, though? Is there some kind of requirement that only fully trained carpenters can build fences?
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