201–210 of 415 posts
Real businesses make money. Waymo loses money hand over fist.
As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.
I'm sorry but good public transit in the US isn't going to happen. Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. With the rise of remote work, and declining ratios of working-age populations putting increasing pressure on public finances, we're just never going to see a widespread expansion of public transit. AVs give us a path toward a world where very few people need to own their own c…
Interestingly, no one ever argued for the profitability of cars, so all we can do now is to calculate the overall economic costs and societal benefits and that's where public transport clearly and easily wins.
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That "train passing occasionally" holds the equivalent of hundreds of cars. A random crappy light rail line will do the equivalent of 5 lanes of traffic (each direction). A serious subway more like 20. https://visual.ly/community/Infographics/transportation/solu... Even if you run cars with no distance between the bumpers you'll still need room for changing lanes, crossing and the line.
These comparisons are never quite apples-to-apples because the heavy rail line assumes only a few passengers have any luggage and that the entire line is used only for passengers, whereas the capacity rating for a road allows everyone to take large amounts of luggage and freight is always mixed in as well. You also have to take into account all the other factors that make roads preferable, for example, that rail capa…
The lines near me have freight on them (I live in a port city, a noticeable fraction of the country's imports and exports go via intermodal containers on trains) and still run like two services to London and two to other big cities per hour. The freight has to fit in between passenger services, that's a policy decision and the US just picked wrong.
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I live in SF, and I take it daily. It's cheaper than paying for the parking garage near the office. And it's cheaper than Uber: the base rate is similar to Uber's, but there is no need to add a tip. Waymo sometimes does weird, unexpected things - but safely. Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few time…
>Once it seemed to change its mind about the optimal route a few times over the course of 10 seconds, switching safely between two lanes back and forth a few times before committing. It used its turn signal fine, and the lanes were clear, so it wasn't a problem, but this isn't something humans do. Oh, I disagree, this is something I observe and in fact do myself quite a lot. We all run it through our minds which rout…
That said I admit if these are the kinds of complaints we are discussing, as opposed to the kinds Uber attracted (like running a woman over in Nevada), Waymo must be doing pretty well. These are nitpicks to gradually address, not fundamental issues. Kudos to waymo, it was always obvious they were nearly the only player seriously trying
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What I’m really looking forward to is when autonomous taxis can run a net profit —- including maintenance and upgrades —- at which point, instead of letting Waymo take all the vehicle profit in the world, I want to start an autonomous taxi company and then find an appropriate legal construction/shenanigan to give ownership of the company to the cars! The philosophical dilemmas would easily make the initial investment…
Glossing over the part where you try to tell a judge a company should be owned by its assets, why do you think the 'autonomous' in autonomous cars means they would also be able to do hiring, planning, assign work etc?
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I have kids and don't like Taxis, but I'm not sure I entirely agree with your take. The idea of a humanless Taxi showing up to my house sounds way more appealing to me. I can take my time to get car seats in and kids buckled, without feeling the pressure to hurry from the human driver. I don't have to feel like my kids misbehaving are going to annoy a human driver, or get me a bad review in Uber/Lyft. I don't have to…
If you have smaller kids, most taxi rides are completely illegal in any western country and very dangerous for kids. Ever saw a taxi with 2 spare child seats or at least boosters? They are required by law for very good reasons, and those reasons are kids dying or ending up crippled even in relatively mild crashes. That's just one tiny example out of sea of examples.
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How do you make sure there isn’t human semen or worse on the seats on which you and your children will sit? At least with taxis driven by humans you knew that there was someone making sure that won’t happen that often, but with driverless taxis all bets are off.
Surely they have cameras? I’d trust that a lot more than a taxi driver keeping their cab clean.
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Also, the really fantastic ones will be excellent for years and years, and then one day they're slightly sleepy.
Or get a text and get distracted at just the wrong time
Eg, turn off the phone or turn off notifications, even vibrations. Or at least make a strict rule to ignore it while moving and only look while fully stopped, eg at a stoplight although that's just decent driver grade not excellent driver, because of the temptation the notification will present each time.
A great driver also reviews the route for a couple of minutes before leaving in order to reduce reliance on GPS-- you still use GPS but because it's not the first time you've seen the material, already know the shape of the route, and just need reminders to encourage you you're on the right track, the GPS will genuinely steal far less attention. The two minutes will be well spent, and may save lots of time, because it vastly reduces the likelihood of wrong turns.
This seems silly. It’s been obvious even to casual observers like myself for years that Waymo/Google was one of the only groups taking the problem seriously and trying to actually solve it, as opposed to pretending you could add self-driving with just cameras in an over-the-air update (Tesla), or trying to move fast and break things (Uber), or pretending you could gradually improve lane-keeping all the way into auton…
Tesla already silently abandoned the "just over the AIR one day" approach with a dedicated car announcement.
However the camera+ultra-sonic radars but no lidar is not only Tesla vision, but other companies too.
We don't know what it costs Waymo to operate their car. The fact that they charge money doesn't make them a real business, just as people paying for FSD doesn't make it a real business.
Both are promises until a breakthrough occurs. Waymo is starting small-scale but for a full setup, even if guided by humans here and there. Tesla starts with millions of cars and multiple countries but with far modest functionality.
Waymo is scaling up; Tesla FSD finally starts to look like the promise, with a high chance of a ride with 0 disengagements still on the scale of many countries and launching it also on a different continent right now.
It's interesting to observe how companies with radically different approaches are about to arrive at the same goal almost simultaneously.
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How do you make sure there isn’t human semen or worse on the seats on which you and your children will sit? At least with taxis driven by humans you knew that there was someone making sure that won’t happen that often, but with driverless taxis all bets are off.
As someone with kids... What if there is? The presence of dried Semen on a seat on which my kids sit will have zero negative impact on them. At all. Is it Yuck? Yes of course. But it also seems extremely unlikely. And it's a lot less Yuck than thinking about what's in the sand in public playgrounds that all kids visit constantly. And while I have a reasonable chance of preventing them from licking the seats, I have n…
Do you and your kids take public transport regularly? In a failing city/society, that is.
Because if the answer is "yes, I do take public transport in a city that struggles to pay its bills and I still don't care that the chairs have weird organic substances on them" then fair-play to you, but for me personally at some point I had to purchase a personal car (when I was already approaching my mid-30s) because I just couldn't convince myself anymore that it is ok to not want to sit down inside of a train ("better stand up by the window, that seat is too dirty").
And these robo-taxis will be worse than public transport, for the main reason that there's no-one "standing guard" inside of them (and, no, Big Brother cameras placed inside of them, which should be a dedicated topic all by itself, btw, really won't change a thing in that respect).