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Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

today.oregonstate.edu

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Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#201

Post by dangus »

pfdietz wrote: post #29
dangus wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel AGI and nuclear conflict have zero relevance to this article. I also personally think the risk of nuclear conflict is pretty much zero.

I don't know about that; I could see everyone drifting into a conflict no one wants, WW1 style. Recent events also are incentivizing small countries to go nuclear, which will increase the risk of nuclear war. I expect South Korea, Japan, and maybe even the Philippines and Vietnam to acquire nuclear weapons at some point. Japan already has a capability to acquire nuclear weapons quickly, with their separated reactor-g…

Acquiring nuclear weapons is not the same as using them.

Nuclear weapons aren’t a combat armament. They are an insurance policy. They are a way to get adversaries to leave you alone or bring you to the negotiating table.

I believe it was Kim Jong Il or Un or maybe both who directly stated this to insiders in their regime. They weren’t ever intended to be used, and those leaders were fully aware that any real conflict would result in their regime’s annihilation.

Their #1 goal was preservation of their family monarchy. Nuclear war is the opposite of that.

Source: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9169656/

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#202

Post by padjo »

belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

Climate change is analogous to a scenario we see all the time in nature i.e. a species finds massive success causing its population to spike, this population spike degrades the supporting environment and the species risks extinction.

We dodged this in the 20th century with the green revolution but the risk remains. We still haven’t figured out how to live within the limits of our environment, instead we continue to extract from it and degrade it. If we don’t figure this problem out then our species is done for.

Compared to this the other two are barely even risks.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#203

Post by triceratops »

jessetemp wrote: post #187
gmd63 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone hell bent on leaving is actually distracted from the real less immediately glamorous challenge, which is learning to sustain life and exercise restraint.

They’re probably referring to the earth getting enveloped by the sun in a billion or so years as it expands. I still think you’re right though. The better plan is staying on earth. The trick is moving it outward as the habitable zone expands with the sun. Only have to convince humanity to sling a giant meteor just outside earth’s orbit every year for millions of years without messing up. What could go wrong?

> They’re probably referring to the earth getting enveloped by the sun in a billion or so years as it expands.

Mother Gaia refers to the Earth, not the sun.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#204

Post by soulofmischief »

padjo wrote: post #202
belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

Climate change is analogous to a scenario we see all the time in nature i.e. a species finds massive success causing its population to spike, this population spike degrades the supporting environment and the species risks extinction. We dodged this in the 20th century with the green revolution but the risk remains. We still haven’t figured out how to live within the limits of our environment, instead we continue to e…

The other two are really only risks if the climate change risk doesn't take us out.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#205

Post by lucianbr »

angusturner wrote: post #159
14 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not the solution. Ending capitalism for some other form of economy is the only way in my opinion. Not that I don’t think people should be rewarded for the products and services they offer just that the incentive to make cheap shit and sell an upgrade every year is definitely harmful to our earth. The problem I see is I don’t know what type of economic solution there is that would fit.

I think the tools to solve the challenges of waste, environmental damage etc. already exist within the framework of capitalism. Mostly they are just unpopular and seen by many as a government overreach. 1. taxes that force corporations and individuals to pay for the negative externalities / social costs of their actions 2. regulation (e.g. stop allowing planned obsolence, mandate the right to repair etc.) 3. governme…

Theft is also a problem of political will. If people would just not steal, the problem of theft would be solved. For some definition of "solution", it is a solution. But not a useful or realistic one. It's just not going to happen in any reasonable timeframe. Only if human nature itself changes in some distant future. Same thing applies to environmental damage.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#206

Post by throwmeaball »

rafaelmn wrote: post #200
Delmololo wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have now chips with 20petaflops. The weekly news regarding AI are always adding new things to ai. We started pouring billions into ai. The amount of new research papers regarding AI are exploding. I would argue that it is not marketing hype or aluminum hat thinking to take that serious

You could give similar numbers for crypto (powerplants, custom chips, billions invested, R&D) and yet it amounted to nothing. Not saying it's the same - just that your argument isn't very strong. Ironically Nvidia is riding both waves. A few people in the tech scene know how to fuel a hype train.

Crypto is crunching random meaningless numbers. AI is crunching real world data. They are not the same. But AI should not be viewed as a problem. The real problem is that some people don't want others to have the same stuff as they. They want to work 1 hour while the other guy has to work 100. Interest on interest.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#207

Post by fmobus »

goatlover wrote: post #77
fmobus wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a bad argument. If Americans would emit CO2 at the same per capita rate as china, the world would be much better off. The fact that the Chinese can emit much less per capita and at the same time have raised their standards of living significantly over the last few decades, all while producing a huge fraction of manufactured goods consumed worldwide goes to show that something is deeply wrong with the US' polic…

If Americans emitted the same per capita rate as China, they would have a lower standard of living. This shouldn't be the argument anyway. The focus should be on cleaner and more efficient technologies, which includes nuclear.

It really depends on how "standard of living" is measured in the first place. I live in Europe and make top 5% percentile income, live a pretty decent life that doesn't require a car, in a very energy-efficient apartment. In the US I would likely not have that option, would likely be forced to have a car, would have less vacation days, would have to navigate a nightmarishly complicated healthcare system, and survive some school shootings. Yes, I would make more money, potentially live in a bigger house, but it is debatable if that would automatically be a higher living standard.

EDIT: Also worth mentioning: for a huge chunk of Americans, living an European standard of living would be a huge improvement.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#208

Post by Delmololo »

rafaelmn wrote: post #200
Delmololo wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have now chips with 20petaflops. The weekly news regarding AI are always adding new things to ai. We started pouring billions into ai. The amount of new research papers regarding AI are exploding. I would argue that it is not marketing hype or aluminum hat thinking to take that serious

You could give similar numbers for crypto (powerplants, custom chips, billions invested, R&D) and yet it amounted to nothing. Not saying it's the same - just that your argument isn't very strong. Ironically Nvidia is riding both waves. A few people in the tech scene know how to fuel a hype train.

On the surface perhaps.

Btw hype is defined as exaggerated claims but the ai 'hype' train is not hype.

We already use all those tools daily.

It has real impact and makes real money

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#209

Post by silverquiet »

exoverito wrote: post #181
jeromegv wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> #3 will be solved by human ingenuity It already started, billions of dollars in losses, with no real solution in sight.

There will always billions in losses from something, especially when global wealth is estimated to be around 450 trillion. The Dust Bowl was a disastrous incident of climate change, yet it didn't occur because of CO2. The damage caused by the California Wildfires are just as much a function of expanding developments into forests, immediately putting out small fires leading to the accumulation of fuel over time, and o…

I'd be curious to see the science on enhanced plant growth; my understanding is that the benefits of increased CO2 fade very quickly. I believe we can already see plant pores evolving to be smaller as they were in previous times when the Earth had greater CO2 levels.

About the only thing that gives me hope is SRM, but it's a half-assed solution at best. A world with 800ppm CO2 and a dimmed sun via aerosols is not the Earth that I was born to; it is probably not possible to fully understand the affects.

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