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Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

breakingdefense.com

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Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#201

Post by drawnwren »

Animats wrote: post #68

It's impressive how much hardware they've been able to develop. Their "Fury", which they acquired from Blue Force, is "a single engine business jet with no cabin." It was originally intended as a target drone, something for fighter pilots to practice against. Anduril repurposed it as an autonomous weapons system. They do mean autonomous. Their slogan is "Autonomy for Every Mission". We're seeing the future of warfare…

This isn't really correct. Blue Force had already repurposed it as an autonomous weapons system and it was originally developed as a sparring partner for fighter jets (it was far more capable than just being a target).

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/unmanned-flying-te...

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#202

Post by chaostheory »

willcipriano wrote: post #118
torginus wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem in the US defense industry is, that since the end of the cold war, defense companies have consolidated into just 5 huge conglomerates and the lack of competition wasn't great for the pace of innovation, affordability or timely development. And the Cold War ended more than three decades ago, about the time we went from piston aircraft to the teen series jets making up the bulk of US inventory even today. I…

You know how you hear a lot of complaints about private prisons? How it creates perverse incentives that result in more people being imprisoned? We have a private war apparatus. We have been at war for 30 years without even a clear objective.

You’d have a point if you made this comment 15 years ago, but Russia invaded Ukraine 10 years ago. Around the same time, China started to make outlandish claims on the South China Sea.

You can make a lot of complaints about the defense industry like waste and corruption, but a lack of a clear objective is no longer an issue.

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#203

Post by sandworm101 »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #195
ethbr1 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> future of warfare Color me skeptical. It feels like what we're seeing now is a local optimum: new systems (drones) designed to asymmetrically win ($) against legacy systems (mechanized vehicles) designed for very different goals. We'll see what things look like once the post-drone evolution cycle has turned on the armored side. That said, I do think the Marines are right, in that distributed agility/logistics from…

They're using drones as killbots against individual infantrymen, actively chasing them down rather than taking a lucky grenade drop. That changes everything about force deployment on the ground.

While this does create dramatic videos, it does not represent much of an actual change. Most of these small drone operate well within the range of traditional infantry-killing weapons such as mortar shells. The tactics have changed, but the idea of an infantry unit killing another infantry unit at a couple miles distance isn't a revolution.

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#204

Post by RandomLensman »

Animats wrote: post #68

It's impressive how much hardware they've been able to develop. Their "Fury", which they acquired from Blue Force, is "a single engine business jet with no cabin." It was originally intended as a target drone, something for fighter pilots to practice against. Anduril repurposed it as an autonomous weapons system. They do mean autonomous. Their slogan is "Autonomy for Every Mission". We're seeing the future of warfare…

The idea that everything would be small and with little momentum to overcome doesn't strike me as stable situation - someone might just start to throw (large) rocks from space, for example.

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#205

Post by chaostheory »

bandrami wrote: post #160
Aeolun wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re hardly trademarked are they?

As original names they're under copyright in the US and UK, and in the UK the estate also retains right of publicity.

Just realized that the last copyright for LOTR will end in 2050

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#206

Post by chasd00 »

threeseed wrote: post #171
ethbr1 wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> future of warfare Color me skeptical. It feels like what we're seeing now is a local optimum: new systems (drones) designed to asymmetrically win ($) against legacy systems (mechanized vehicles) designed for very different goals. We'll see what things look like once the post-drone evolution cycle has turned on the armored side. That said, I do think the Marines are right, in that distributed agility/logistics from…

Ukraine is constantly inventing new techniques that are re-thinking what drones can do. Recently they have been using them to drop spikes to slow vehicles which are then hit by a second set of drones. At some point soon these drones will have specialised capabilities and will go out in swarms to autonomously figure out how to take down objects.

Aren’t these drones regular cots drones with some modification? Wouldn’t taking the door off a microwave and pointing it at the drone cause it to fall to the ground? Surely it’s more complex than that and I’m missing something.

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#207

Post by dgroshev »

Animats wrote: post #68

It's impressive how much hardware they've been able to develop. Their "Fury", which they acquired from Blue Force, is "a single engine business jet with no cabin." It was originally intended as a target drone, something for fighter pilots to practice against. Anduril repurposed it as an autonomous weapons system. They do mean autonomous. Their slogan is "Autonomy for Every Mission". We're seeing the future of warfare…

I don't think we as laypeople should even attempt to draw conclusions from Ukrainian battlefields ourselves, seeing how strong the survivorship bias is.

Take FPV drones. In [1] Michael Kofman estimates (based on talking to a number of frontline units) that on average Or TB2s. Remember how they were the future of warfare after their success in Nagorno-Karabakh and the first few weeks in Ukraine? Few months later TB2s completely disappeared from the media, and I don't think many people are aware of how useless they became.

More generally, I think we're seeing a repeat of the century old debate over torpedo boats. People saw how torpedo boats were much cheaper than battleships and thought "hey we can have many of those boats, it'll be cheaper and more lethal". Turns out that range, coordination, sensing, targeting, and logistics are so difficult a smaller number of more capable platforms in well trained hands is both more effective and efficient.

In that analogy, those CCA drones are [torpedo boat] destroyers, not torpedo boats. A small number of somewhat cheaper, but still expensive platforms dependent on the exquisite core of the fleet (battleships, carriers, F-35s, or AH-64s) that doesn't go anywhere.

[1]: https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/mike-kofman-and-rob-lee-on...

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#208

Post by sandworm101 »

They are pilotless. Ok. That is one job that has been removed from the equation, but take a look at any airforce base. Not everyone is a pilot. The vast majority of personnel are not pilots. These things will still need the engine techs, the avionics people, the ground crew, fuel people, air traffic controllers, all the way down to the guy driving the mule. The net change in manning between an "autonomous" drone and an oldschool drone driven by a pilot in a trailer will be minimal.

And many old fighter jets retire as target drones, going on to fly unmanned for perhaps decades. New purpose-build designs might have lower operating costs but their purchase price will always be higher than slapping radio controls onto already-purchased jets.

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#209

Post by DiggyJohnson »

adampk wrote: post #190
edgyquant wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s wrong and, frankly racist, to imply Americans are incapable of innovation. Immigrants are used to suppress wages, that innovation you describe is a key aspect of American culture and can be replicated in defense by Americans. One big problem is that the politics of the most innovative areas has been pretty anti-defense tech until very recently

I did not notice any implication of Americans being incapable of innovation. It is wrong and, frankly racist, to imply immigrants are used to suppress wages.

You are both wrong, frankly. It's probably somewhere in the middle.

Re: Air Force picks Anduril, General Atomics to develop unmanned fighter jets

#210

Post by iamthirsty »

sandworm101 wrote: post #208

They are pilotless. Ok. That is one job that has been removed from the equation, but take a look at any airforce base. Not everyone is a pilot. The vast majority of personnel are not pilots. These things will still need the engine techs, the avionics people, the ground crew, fuel people, air traffic controllers, all the way down to the guy driving the mule. The net change in manning between an "autonomous" drone and…

> The net change in manning between an "autonomous" drone and an oldschool drone driven by a pilot in a trailer is minimal.

Well the whole point is not to reduce headcount totally but reduce the amount of people put directly in harms way, for example a pilot flying in a direct combat scenario.

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