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The rise of batteries in six charts

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Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#201
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not even comparing apples to oranges, that is comparing apples to steel. You are correct in that energy density does not matter very much for weight-insensitive generation such as grid-scale generation, but energy density matters for weight-constrained applications such as airplanes and rockets as the poster mentioned. However, assuming that the renewable generation cost curve continues to improve exponential…

What are the theoretical limits of electrical energy density?

Excellent question! A sufficiently advanced battery can theoretically beat gasoline.

Any given energy storage technology can store a maximum amount of energy in a fixed volume or mass. Behold one of my favorite plots: [1]

From lowest to highest energy density:

- springs, which use mechanical elastic potential energy, are kinda horrible

- capacitors, which use electric permittivity, aren't great

- next are both batteries and combusted fuels, which both use chemical reactions.

- nuclear gets us another few orders of magnitude

- finally, antimatter (E=mc^2) is a ways beyond that

Both batteries and fuels rely on the energy difference between unreacted molecules, so their theoretical energy density is the same. Well, actually, fuels are burnt to create heat which is converted to energy, and this heat->energy conversion is fundamentally thermodynamically inefficient (only ~tens of percent), whereas batteries are the same sorts of reaction but much more controlled. A sufficiently clever battery, which moves atoms around to react in the right places at the right time, is thus more efficient and thus energy-dense than fuel. However, moving atoms around like this to make a more efficient battery is much more advanced nanotech than what we currently have. But it's theoretically possible.

This is what biology does: us humans are powered by chemical storage (sugar/fat/glucose), which is used more efficiently than current batteries but without combustion. (lithium-ion is ~0.8 MJ/kg, glucose is ~16 MJ/kg, gasoline ~46 MJ/kg)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#202
As a point of interest, for particular types of investors, underneath all the hoo-rah of the charts

    How fast will batteries continue to grow and improve? The answer is a lot faster than today’s consensus view. 
isn't exactly true in reality for the billion+ dollar end of the resources market who expected battery demand to be much much higher than it is, leading to temporary(?) setbacks such as:

What's behind the drastic downturn in nickel and lithium prices, and what does it mean?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-26/examining-the-drastic...

TLDR: Despite high expectation demand didn't meet ramped up supply at the raw material end.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#203

This is a great set of charts and analysis, although I have two problems with it. 1. On the chart of energy density, I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. It's much higher, and even though extrapolation is dangerous, I'd like to see how long it could take to reach parity given some of the different forecasting models they mention. Specifically regarding their mention of air travel, I'd like…

> I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. Electric vehicles are around four times as efficient as petrol. In a petrol car, only 20% of the energy is converted to motion. In electric cars, this is around 80% (with some variation dependent on regenerative braking). I wrote about this extensively in a previous article: https:…

>Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think.

When vehicles uphill, ramp, and fight with the increasing wind resistance due speed, it is needed a high torque for to motion.

The petrol's energy density is translated in high torque, that the gearbox latter transforms progressively.

In electric vehicles, generating high torque and cooling the overheated coils for to obtain such high torque drains the battery quickly, the range drops quickly.

And for to increase the range, more weight is added (more batteries), that requires higher torque for motion, that requires more energy again, and so on.

This is why the energy density it is important, in batteries are the watts hour per kilogram. As also it is important the number of cycles before such batteries start to drop energy density until to fail (to note the weight keeps being the same along all of this degradation).

With the current technology, due the magnetic fields strength generated in the coils, and the energy density of the batteries, EVs just can not compete with petrol vehicles. It is about torque, among other things.

What is needed? batteries with bigger energy density ( higher Wh/Kg with higher number of recharge cycles), and/or higher efficiency generating magnetic fields of high strength (ambient superconductivity, also stronger magnets would help some coil's topologies).

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight I used to run extension cords out of windows and across the sidewalk to charge a Fiat 500e.

Works if you live in a first-floor, street-facing unit and can reliably park in front of it. Otherwise it can be tough. It's unfortunate that EVs make the most immediate sense in high-density urban settings, but those same settings have lots of people who can't use the simple kinds of charging infrastructure (eg, Level 1/2 chargers).

Bikes and transit make the most sense in high density urban settings. Evs make more sense in a suburban world.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#205
post #67

Regarding price, leading manufacturers are already selling at a price below what was always understood as the point where EVs win in terms of economics: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-w... The recent price war in China is a testament to that.

why aren't consumers seeing this price yet?

What do you mean? In the past year there have been substantial price cuts in many markets, particularly in the US. The price gap between the average EV and average ICE has also closed could considerably.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's super cool you can watch California's grid level batteries "breathe" every day here, https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html#sectio... Yesterday we peaked out at 3GW discharging rate, and 4GW charging rate. We are plowing ahead in the transition to utilizing all of our excess solar! We peak at 25GW expected today, so we have a little ways to go but it's incredible how far and how fast they're repla…

The amazing thing is there basically were no batteries three four years ago. And they can supply about 10% of the max power demand already. So it feels like the technologies we need are now good to go on an engineering an accounting basis. And adoption can be quite rapid. We're not saying in 50 years, 25 years, 10 years. We're looking at 5 years.

"power". This doesn't mean anything. LiFePO4 scales power to energy storage at a rate of about 1:3-1:4.

1GW of "power" they can supply for 4 hours if you completely discharge the battery.

But that's it. Batteries could supply 100% of the grid briefly, and you still wouldn't be anywhere near having completed a switchover.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we use excess solar energy to create synthetic fuel (hydrogen?) to power jets? I know almost nothing about this space. I would appreciate a comment on why this is feasible or not...

There are people researching it, I believe Airbus is about to test flying with hydrogen. It's the usual thing though for "green hydrogen", there's not much green hydrogen, there are some testbeds but just like for cars it seems to be mostly extracted from natural gas. You can extract it with any energy source like solar power. There's still the challenge that hydrogen fuel is not very compact, so it's hard to carry e…

Answering my own question: Looks like there's something called solar fuel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_fuel

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless every home is completely off the grid, you’re going to need to pay for most or the majority of that transmission and distribution anyway. Peak winter and summer I also would imagine many or most residential deployments aren’t going to cover their own need, unless they’re incredibly over built with massive batteries. In any case, I should check out your Christopher Clack reference.

As long as the houses are still connected to the grid you will indeed by paying for distribution costs. But I think that you should expect to see transmission savings since you'll have more of the demand met locally.

Why? If there's any possibility those homes will draw 100% of their power from the grid on any given day, then the cost of infrastructure will be pretty much the same since a grid failure is a disaster.

And there is a 100% chance they will, like my home is today, because 11kW of solar is making about 800W due to cloud cover which has persisted most days of summer.

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#209
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. Electric vehicles are around four times as efficient as petrol. In a petrol car, only 20% of the energy is converted to motion. In electric cars, this is around 80% (with some variation dependent on regenerative braking). I wrote about this extensively in a previous article: https:…

>Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. When vehicles uphill, ramp, and fight with the increasing wind resistance due speed, it is needed a high torque for to motion. The petrol's energy density is translated in high torque, that the gearbox latter transforms progressively. In electric vehicles, generating high torque and cooling the overheated coils for to obtain such high torque drai…

[deleted]

Re: The rise of batteries in six charts

#210
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. Electric vehicles are around four times as efficient as petrol. In a petrol car, only 20% of the energy is converted to motion. In electric cars, this is around 80% (with some variation dependent on regenerative braking). I wrote about this extensively in a previous article: https:…

>Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. When vehicles uphill, ramp, and fight with the increasing wind resistance due speed, it is needed a high torque for to motion. The petrol's energy density is translated in high torque, that the gearbox latter transforms progressively. In electric vehicles, generating high torque and cooling the overheated coils for to obtain such high torque drai…

This is completely wrong: an ICE has 20-25% of the energy of petrol to use to do all those things. The rest is lost as heat.
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