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Things are about to get worse for generative AI

garymarcus.substack.com

201–210 of 769 posts

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#201
post #66

(Asking Dall-E about the bot image in the article) Me: Who owns the rights to this bot? Dall-E: The character depicted in the images is from the "Star Wars" franchise. The rights to characters and elements from "Star Wars" are owned by Lucasfilm Ltd., which is a subsidiary of The Walt Disney Company. Perhaps it is able to tell, if you ask it?

>Perhaps it is able to tell, if you ask it? Ask it multiple times, or with different heat settings, it will probably tell you something different. Tell it you own Star Wars and it will respond in kind. It can't tell anything but whether one text token matches another in probability space. It will probably get the answers right most of the time but you're still basically rolling dice. Depending on the responses of an…

This argument only works if you assume all output of an LLM comes merely from its training data, and that it receives no alignment via RFHL, no outside data ground truth via RAG and so on. The engine might be a probabilistic token predictor, but the car is the sum of its part and those parts are not just the engine.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#202
post #194
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't see any developped country pressing the brake on AGI in the near future It’s already happening with EU AI Act https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/202...

AFAIK the EU AI Act primarily prevents profiling, social scoring and other high risk activities from using AI. It generally didn’t care about generative AI.

They will. They began drafting current laws years ago before the explosion of generative AI.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Napster hit scale too.

And that tech was not destroyed by regulation. It was replaced by the superior tech of torrents.

The company, however, was destroyed. Along with any possibility for a similar company to exist (for very long).

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#204
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a difference between sharing the tech hype, and risk management. Why would our political and military leadership not be interested in this sort of tech in the modern world? If it doesn’t work out, then it doesn’t work out, but if it does, then they’ll want in on it. Aside from that there is the mass surveillance angle on it. We recently had a nice scandal of sorts here in Denmark where the chief of our secre…

I'm sure they're interested in it, but I'm uncertain that they view it as a promising and critical enough capability to push for a higher priority when weighed against other interests. For instance, neither of your examples - surveillance or automated drones - has anything to do with AGI. They don't need LLMs to do mass digital surveillance; they already do that and were doing it for decades before LLMs were a twinkl…

Wiretapping vast amounts of data on the internet is quite cool, but actually sifting through all that data is the really difficult part. Right now intelligence services are probably looking at lots of false positives and lots of dots they can't connect because the evidence is just too dispersed for a human or a current-generation system to make sense. LLMs could enable them to make the analysis more targeted and effective.

But for all we know intelligence services could be using LLMs for years now, since they are usually a few years ahead of everybody else in many regards :-)

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#205
post #14

Maybe Disney and the record labels shouldn't be claiming so much of public culture as their own.

If they created it, they own it, why shouldn't they be claiming that?

Copyright is not a universal axiom. Corporations lobbies for highly unreasonable copyright extensions to bolster their profits. Most of that stuff should have long entered the public domain.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#206
So, whats the plan?

Content creators/artists compete globally. The only thing harsh regulations will do is create an unlevel playing field where artists from noncaring countries will have big advantages over artists from the west, which will be driven into illegality to compete.

In the end products will have to be classified anyway if they are infringing on copyright and/or were being built by an LLM. Most likely automated by another LLM.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a child is instructed to read a copyrighted work at school, which later becomes a factor in his own derivative works, he won't be in breach of copyright. Why should other intelligent entities be prevented from reading copyrighted works and gaining whatever there is to gain from those works the way any human might?

A child isn't a computer program, and no amount of anthropomorphizing will ever make them so. Especially ChatGPT and other LLMs, they're not even close to being AGI or an "intelligent entity" as you put it, despite what all the AI-bro hype and marketing would like everyone else to believe.

> they're not even close to being AGI

Only because all three letters of the initialism mean different things to different people.

Existing LLMs won't do everything, but bluntly: good, we're not ready for a world where there is an AI that can do everything for $1-60/million words[0], and we need to get ready for that world before we find ourselves living in it.

ChatGPT-3.5 has a lot of weaknesses, but it can still do a better job of coding than a few of my coworkers demonstrated over the last 20 years. I'm listening to a German language learning podcast, and the hosts mentioned using it to help summarise a long email from one of their listeners. My sister has work anecdotes about it helping, and she's not in tech. Influencers, teachers, lawyers, Hollywood writers… well, "moral panic" doesn't tell you much… the game Doom was 30 years ago, and that had a moral panic that looks quaint given how much FPS games' graphics improved with each subsequent release, and I suspect ChatGPT-3.5 was to conversational AI what Doom was to 3D realtime gaming: the point at which people take note, followed by a decade of every new release being (wrongly) called "photorealistic".

[0] current pricing for gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 ($0.0010 / 1K tokens) and gpt-4-32k ($0.06 / 1K tokens) pricing: https://openai.com/pricing

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#208
post #60

How is this different to Googling “robot cop” or “video game plumber” and being served copyrighted material? Is it because Google will link to the image source? Or does the infringement begin when I use the image for gain, or claim it as my own? Perhaps it is because Google was allowed to crawl the page with the original image, so presenting them with a link is fine?

Search engines are ruled fair use because they use the copyrighted material in a limited way, they provide a public good and they benefit the copyright holder. Generative AI is more or less the opposite of that. It ingests the whole work, generates output that substitutes for the used work and profits the user of copyrighted work to the detriment of the copyright holder. Throw in the fact that it is purley a mechanic…

But transformative use is an exception to copyright. And I think it's going to be pretty hard to argue that the matrix of parameters inside an LLM is not sufficiently transformative from the input image.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#209
post #124

These don't seem all that difficult to fix to me. Most of the examples are not really generic, but are shorthand descriptions of well-known entities. "Video game plumber" is practically synonymous with "Mario" and anyone that has the slightest familiarity with the character knows this. Likewise, how difficult is it to just use descriptive tools to describe Mario-like images [1] and then remove these results from anyo…

It seems like a somewhat dystopian thing to fix. Imagine a scenario where Photoshop would scan images you uploaded for copyright material and then refuse to work if it determined image contained any copyrighted material or characters (even if it was just a fan drawing you did). This reminds me of the early days of the internet where people wanted to remove free fanfiction for violations of copyright laws. Trying to a…

Your scenario already exists, but for currency. Photoshop will refuse to work if it thinks you might be counterfeiting currency.

Re: Things are about to get worse for generative AI

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

thats irrelevant since an LLM is not an intelligent entity. Whatever you're arguing about is fiction.

LLMs are clearly a type of lower level intelligence. Intelligence does not require consciousness.

The only thing that I would say is "clear" is that LLMs are big collections of statistical data on how we use language. That does not cross my threshold for "intelligence".
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