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Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

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Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#201
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Musk is technical? I’ve seen tons of interviews and podcasts. He’s not as stupid as he comes across on Twitter, but he absolutely is not an engineer and couldn’t code his way out of a paper bag. He has an above average understanding of tech, but whenever seriously pressed —- rare because the media is absolutely terrified of pressing him and losing access —- he demonstrates a rudimentary understan…

>couldn’t code his way out of a paper bag He sold a game he programed at age 12, and wrote at least the initial code for zip2 which Compaq acquired for $307 million.

“ While Musk had exceled as a self-taught coder, his skills weren’t nearly as polished as those of the new hires. They took one look at Zip2’s code and began rewriting the vast majority of the software. Musk bristled at some of their changes, but the computer scientists needed just a fraction of the lines of code that Musk used to get their jobs done. They had a knack for dividing software projects into chunks that could be altered and refined whereas Musk fell into the classic self-taught coder trap of writing what developers call hairballs—big, monolithic hunks of code that could go berserk for mysterious reasons. ” from his biography

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#202
post #195
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Sam continues to have "luck" it is not survivorship bias. As I said before he is at the center of the stage.

Sorry, but someone lucky every single time in their life but still be wrong. Just by probabilities alone it's happened hundreds of times. Probably the source for original prophet claims.

Why be sorry, large sample sizes more or less guarantee the generation of outliers. But once someone attaches mythology to the event, you get another Sam Altman. Worldcoin alone should raise a lot of questions about his supposed one of a kind brilliance, but it didn't, so here we go again with another auteur too big to fail now.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#203
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but someone lucky every single time in their life but still be wrong. Just by probabilities alone it's happened hundreds of times. Probably the source for original prophet claims.

Why be sorry, large sample sizes more or less guarantee the generation of outliers. But once someone attaches mythology to the event, you get another Sam Altman. Worldcoin alone should raise a lot of questions about his supposed one of a kind brilliance, but it didn't, so here we go again with another auteur too big to fail now.

Yes thanks, very succinct wording.

Let one man make one (50/50) prediction once a year from the time he is 20 until 50. One in a billion by chance, but by numbers its had to occured. Attach some mythology and tada.

Re: Sam Altman's knack for dodging bullets with a little help from bigshot friends

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tell me you don't understand conditional probability without telling me you don't understand conditional probability. CEO of Reddit, how'd that go? Project Covalence, how'd that go? Andrew Yang? Our next president, right? 2018, The year Sam Altman became the governor of California, no? And of course: "I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israel Defense Forces, and a b…

The point being that a lot of people have connections, money, or whatever, but those people still don't end up with world changing successes.

So many trust fund babies know how to just sit back and enjoy life instead, that's true.
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