For those experiencing this type of "black swan, but good" event for the first time, it is helpful to recognize that the human tendency to believe that all future "big events" will be dystopian downers, is statistically unsound. For a while I've kept a list of the things that could be "good" swan events, but to be fair I didn't have "room temperature superconductor on that list" :-) Other things that could happen: 1)…
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
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Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
Antibiotics Electricity Internal combustion engine Flight Li-Ion batteries Radio communication
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#203So far lab replication efforts are: Two from HUST: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV14p4y1V7kS/ https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV13k4y1G7i1/ One by USTC https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Ex4y1X7ix/ this tiny sample can stand on its pointy side. One by Qufu Normal University https://www.zhihu.com/zvideo/1669820225079070720 One with THU background but claims a personal project https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV14z4y1s7V…
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
It would have been more convincing if you had given real past examples rather than speculative future ones :) Although I'm pretty sure there are plenty that many people can think of, so it doesn't really detract much from your point.
A good one would be "productive AI." People forget, but a short while ago, AI was treated as something where being actually useful was perpetually 20 years away, and the real-world status of it was exemplified by a chatbot like Eliza.
More seriously AI has made lots of things better, it’s really the hype cycle that’s disappointing. More FPS in games just isn’t as exciting as self driving cars. But by the time you can buy a level 5 self driving car the technology will be pedestrian.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#205I get the idea of superconductivity at room temperature in theory. But I don't have enough knowledge to understand in real terms, how will the world change if this is true?
Almost instant battery charging for example.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#206I get the idea of superconductivity at room temperature in theory. But I don't have enough knowledge to understand in real terms, how will the world change if this is true?
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#207Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nope. Quantum computing requires low temperatures not because of resistance but to maintain coherence.
A room temperature superconductor would, by definition, maintain quantum coherence (of the superconducting order parameter) at room temperature.
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#209China is taking the lead, they harvest the fruit of their massive investment in education 20 years ago, congrats!
Re: Successful room temperature ambient-pressure magnetic levitation of LK-99
#210So far lab replication efforts are: Two from HUST: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV14p4y1V7kS/ https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV13k4y1G7i1/ One by USTC https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Ex4y1X7ix/ this tiny sample can stand on its pointy side. One by Qufu Normal University https://www.zhihu.com/zvideo/1669820225079070720 One with THU background but claims a personal project https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV14z4y1s7V…
> Why are't more labs outside China making LK-99 and publish videos? Good rigorous science takes time to produce. It can take anywhere between several months to a year or more, and the career implications for rushing something out that is later found lacking is not great.
On a tangent, this idea of reputation keeps on coming up in this whole discussion and I am burdened by it in a way I don't fully understand. The way people have talked, if this LK-99 doesn't work out, then it is almost as if those who published this did something _morally_ wrong. Well, morally wrong is not quite true, but the way people talk about it tanking their reputation it feels like such a strong statement. Is there some way we can focus on the science and not get bogged down in the very human reputational part of this whole thing? It's almost as if a good chunk of the scientific community don't care about the benefits the science brings but the reputational benefits.