Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm willing to put aside literally every mechanical interpretation of probability here, ignoring really poignant questions, in favor of one overarching question: Do you really, really think a species capable of interstellar travel would have vehicles or crafts that we could recognize as such? That feels more like a technology 100-200 years ahead of us, akin to science fiction, than the reality of a species hundreds o…
While I completely agree with you on interstellar travel, I'd like to add the nuance that you seem to assume that there is no life in the Solar system other than on Earth. That could very well be true... but we're not even confident ruling out life on Mars completely, and we landed there and took soil samples and explored. Honestly, if there are extraterrestrials on Earth, I'd wager my hat that they're from somewhere…
No local drones or Dyson spheres, but we're cohabitating with a species capable of intra-solar travel?
Seems highly suspect. They'd need to be at roughly our level of technological development, which, if true, would be more likely to believe in a concept of "God" engineering that outcome than any kind of organic alien life.