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Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

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Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make about 50 a year. One of the parts in these machines is a 30cm mirror that is the flattest that humans can make with our current level of technology. If you have a way to churn them out please let Zeiss SMT know.

Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

> What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

Testing of EUV lithography machines is very complicated and slow process. You cannot scale it without magically cloning all the test engineers and technicians.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To suggest it is merely lack of drivers is an oversimplification. There is a chip errata that prevents PCIe GPUs from working properly on Apple Silicon: the architectures are not compatible. Apple Silicon GPU drivers are deeply integrated into the system. Due to this integration, only graphics cards that use the same GPU architecture as Apple Silicon could be supported, and there just aren't any, and I don't see how…

> To suggest it is merely lack of drivers is an oversimplification. Not really. When you hook up an external PCI chassis with a graphics card inserted, it sees the PCI expansion slot and the GPU just fine, it just doesn't have a driver for the GPU.

Not really. Software drivers alone will not get it done, at least not adequately (Asahi-related developers may come up with a software solution for Asahi, but it will necessarily degrade performance, so the effort is likely to be abandoned).

Thunderbolt supports PCIe, and for most devices Apple Silicon does also, but GPU is different enough from audio interfaces and NVMe that it isn't just a "load the driver and plug it in" situation. GPU is vastly more complex than other PCIe devices. Apple Silicon and x86 architectures are not compatible, so GPU for x86 is not going to work with Apple Silicon with merely a software driver.

It's going to take hw translation and other technology that is not yet available for Apple Silicon, thus Apple's recent patent applications,[1] showing that Apple is either exploring supporting outboard GPU or locking anyone else out from their method of doing so, but either way is no guarantee they'll complete development or release, because it seems just as if not more likely the roadmap for Apple Silicon GPU performance will outpace nVidia and AMD GPUs.

But, again, claiming, "it just doesn't have a driver for the GPU" is a staggering oversimplification.

[1] https://image-ppubs.uspto.gov/dirsearch-public/print/downloa...

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You would be correct if investment were the bottleneck. It's not. The bottleneck on advanced processes is how fast ASML can build its EUV fabrication machines and they're extremely complicated pieces of kit with lots of specialized parts that are also extremely complicated pieces of kit. Even with all our modern production ability we're limited in how quickly we can assemble these machines that can actually do the li…

Why can't ASML scale? They are siting on $20B of orders. That is insane. What is ASML's delivery throughput of these machines?

The answer is quite simple, actually. It's a hardware business so they have to right-size their equipment to projected demand and the tool-up time in specialty hardware is long because of the need for specialty components.

i.e. they need to project out demand x years in advance because their things are expensive and slow to build, and their components vendors have the same problem with the additional problem that their components vendors only have one customer for some of their products: them.

There is no other equivalent use for much of what they need so if they fuck it up they've got too much equipment too fast.

This is a classic hardware business problem.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two issues. 1) Apple Silicon won't support PCIe. 2) Apple doesn't want it to. #2 means Apple is taking nVidia and AMD head on in the GPU space. Apple wants to control everything, and allowing these competitors on their platform is giving away too much. Because Apple Silicon scales better than competitors' hw, the desire for third party GPU is probably going to evaporate within a few generations of Apple Sil…

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Mac Pro. It could be that Apple does away with it entirely and the Mac Studio is the new Pro. Or they might make a machine with PCIe support, but make it so expensive that only people with a serious need get access to it. Or something else.

> It could be that Apple does away with it entirely and the Mac Studio is the new Pro.

Or the Mac Pro will be released without PCIe GPU support, and Apple will be able to leverage increases in Apple Silicon GPU performance to eliminate any need or desire for PCIe GPU, drawing away high end GPU customers from nVidia and AMD and locking them into Apple Silicon and the Apple ecosystem.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#207
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those run on the A9?

No. Both of them need A10 or newer and recommends minimum a11. Genshin also needs a A10 as minimum.

It does run on the A9: https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/j0jzxk/the_...

With low quality graphics admittedly, where you'd get this information?

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Mac Pro. It could be that Apple does away with it entirely and the Mac Studio is the new Pro. Or they might make a machine with PCIe support, but make it so expensive that only people with a serious need get access to it. Or something else.

> It could be that Apple does away with it entirely and the Mac Studio is the new Pro. Or the Mac Pro will be released without PCIe GPU support, and Apple will be able to leverage increases in Apple Silicon GPU performance to eliminate any need or desire for PCIe GPU, drawing away high end GPU customers from nVidia and AMD and locking them into Apple Silicon and the Apple ecosystem.

> Or the Mac Pro will be released without PCIe GPU support, and Apple will be able to leverage increases in Apple Silicon GPU performance to eliminate any need or desire for PCIe GPU, drawing away high end GPU customers from nVidia and AMD and locking them into Apple Silicon and the Apple ecosystem.

Maybe. But graphics cards aren't the only thing people put into PCIe slots.

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#209
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do whatever they are doing now, but twice? What in the process wouldn’t work with this method?

Peak HN. Surely a casual brainstorm by a casual reader of the thread somehow unlocks all of the challenges that ASML is facing.

3nm.Do()

Re: Apple to occupy 90% of TSMC 3nm capacity in 2023

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It could be that Apple does away with it entirely and the Mac Studio is the new Pro. Or the Mac Pro will be released without PCIe GPU support, and Apple will be able to leverage increases in Apple Silicon GPU performance to eliminate any need or desire for PCIe GPU, drawing away high end GPU customers from nVidia and AMD and locking them into Apple Silicon and the Apple ecosystem.

> Or the Mac Pro will be released without PCIe GPU support, and Apple will be able to leverage increases in Apple Silicon GPU performance to eliminate any need or desire for PCIe GPU, drawing away high end GPU customers from nVidia and AMD and locking them into Apple Silicon and the Apple ecosystem. Maybe. But graphics cards aren't the only thing people put into PCIe slots.

> Maybe. But graphics cards aren't the only thing people put into PCIe slots.

Right, so there will be PCIe slots for expansion, they just won't support PCIe GPU, just like Thunderbolt PCIe expansion chassis for Thunderbolt now. It isn't the PCIe slots that break compatibility, its the difference in architecture between x86 and Apple Silicon that makes them incompatible.

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