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Bank Failures Visualized

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Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#201
post #86
post #79

Would be slightly more insightful if it was inflation adjusted. The circles on the right should be ~30% smaller.

And how about relative to M1 money supply?

Comparing to M1 doesn't make much sense, but “total bank assets” roughly doubled in the meantime: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLAACBW027SBOG

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#202
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if the circles’ areas, not their radii, were the failed assets. As it is, a circle’s apparent size (we judge 2D shapes by their area, not any one linear dimension — although this is difficult to do in practice, and linear marks are generally superior) is the failure size squared , which distorts the data a boatload. Here is a, er, more faithful representation of the data. The recent failures don't look quite so c…

> we judge 2D shapes by their area I've seen this claim a few times in discussions about such charts, but it's far from obvious to me that this is really true. My best guess based on my own perception is that we estimate quantities represented by circles as proportional to something between the diameter and the area.

Human beings are spectacularly shit at comparing areas. If you put two circles next to each other, one with double area of the other, most humans will say their relation is 3:2.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going by Wikipedia, in 2021 dollars I count: 1980s S&L crisis: $654 Billion (summed 1984-1992 failures) across 23 banks 2008 crisis: $733 Billion (summed 2008-2011 failures) across 61 banks 2023 so far (it's only May): $556 Billion (Signature + SVB + FRC) across 3 banks. It looks like 2008-2011 is the "winner", although other commenters have mentioned forced mergers etc. may not be counted. https://en.wikipedia.org/w…

Aren't there some relevant details missing from this kind of analysis? Banks failing just means that the value of the banks assets fall below the value of their deposits, right? In which case the degree to which that happens seems to be highly relevant to this kind of comparison. E.g. the value of assets falling to 50% of deposits in bank failures in financial crisis A vs 90% in financial crisis B

In most of these cases the fall is to 99% of the value, because that's the point at which they have to cease trading.

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#207
post #199

That needs to go back to the 80s to capture the SnL crisis. It dwarfs 08 in bank failures. It better indicates the conglomeration of the many banks into the few we have today.

saturday night life crisis?

Savings and loan crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#208

Where are Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns? And where are all the non US banks, such as e.g. Credit Suisse? They would make the other numbers in this graph dwindle ..

They're not in the set of US depositor banks. (Lehman was an investment bank)

Re: Bank Failures Visualized

#209
post #152

Both SVB and Signature Bank were atypical banks with atypical depositors. SVB catered to risky tech startup and Signature Bank was involved in risky crypto shenanigans. On SVB: >As a regional bank in the Bay Area, SVB offered services specifically designed to meet the needs of the tech industry, and soon became the largest bank by deposits in Silicon Valley and the preferred bank of almost half of all venture-backed…

Sure, outliers will fail first. That doesn’t say much about whether there are vanilla banks about to fail.
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