So what? After my vacation in Dubai I'm going to buy my next SUV with BitCoins.
why are you gonna do that?
IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
201–210 of 456 posts
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know, but this: > The next natural equilibrium probably includes a decimated world population. Is obvious speculation and likely hyperbole.
It doesn't seem hyperbolic to me, and I don't understand the addition of "short timeframe". "next natural equilibrium" implies something like 100 years to me, at least. I am very concerned about climate change even though I understand it's not going to directly kill me in 10 years.
Not hyperbolic. What is NOT factored in by the IPCC is the effect of NOT using "fossil fuels". Agriculture is affected. NOT using fossil fuels simply means no fertilizer. Famine killing 1 billion would be expected. So -- bad if you do, bad if you don't. My "bet" is simple. I simply purchased natural gas stocks. The bet is that the need for fertilizer will beat the "stop fossil fuels". Because, if it doesn't, the money is worthless. If it does, I will be "sitting pretty". If a billion people die "one way or the other", I am going with my comfort, and my childrens comfort.
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#203Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…
Yeah, those are interesting numbers. Another one I’m curious about is: how much faster are we burning fossil fuels than they are replenished naturally? The only number I found was a low estimate of 750x, and I think that was for oil. I assume “natural” gas is faster?
Not specific to fossil fuels, but there is Earth Overshoot Day[0]
> Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity has used all the biological resources that Earth regenerates during the entire year.
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
Overstating impact is detrimental to the cause. > decimated 1.5C will be bad, but it won’t directly kill 800+ million people in a short timeframe. People simply don’t respond to harm spread across 100 years the way they react to harm concentrated into a few large events.
And underestimating what's actually going to happen, and how difficult it's going to be to reverse, or even put brakes on it is intellectually criminal, but the pro-AGW group hasn't ever cared about that. Why would they, the track record of 'Let industry self-regulate' has worked out great for them in the past. We're going to blow right past 1.5C, 2C, 2.5C...
It has been the "mean, bad Capitalist" vs the "nice, social minded Socialist". I tend to go with the Capitalist. Why? Because it has never been good to kill the consumer of the product. In general, this particular principle does NOT hold with Socialists. They (and again, not all) generally do not care.
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Absolutism gets us nowhere, And building out natgas will get us into a situation where we are locked into decades of guaranteed emissions, as all the vested interests in the production and consumption space fight tooth and nail to protect their line of business, and the capex they've dumped into it. There's no plausible net-carbon zero path this century that's compatible with our current buildout of natgas. Perfect…
Natural gas is a great pathway to net zero because the fuel is so vastly more explosive than the equipment. People own gas turbines that are literally used for less than a week a year and are simply paid for standby capacity. Quite literally you’re better off building solar where 1/2 it’s output is wasted over a year than burning natural gas. When you’re building that much solar things are very close to net zero. Eve…
> nuclear can’t do it economically.
It can, we're just stupid (in the US).
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
The IPCC sadly had to accommodate economists, and they went one to do what economists do. However they got cordoned off in a separate section. Of course economic growth of Pakistan has been severely impacted by the floods they recently got, but hey what's evidence and anyway, it's all just a far away 'stan, right? The hard science sections tell it like it is, then the growth of GDP can be gamed in oh so many ways, ma…
Should we just tell Pakistan to suck it and not develop? Should we just shut down all economic activity that isn't related to sequestering co2? It seems obvious that there's a tension between economic activity (aka living in a somewhat developed country) and resource usage.
No, it’s more along the lines of “build a high-speed rail line from Karachi to Islamabad” instead of encouraging further air travel. The corridor is around 1500 km long, so a line with an average operating speed of 320 kph would enable sub-5 hour journey times, and allow for a reduction or elimination of air services between the two cities (currently 105 per week).
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#207I do wish someone would just acknowledge we’ve been getting “final warnings” as well as predictions of catastrophe every few years for decades now. Just recognize that I have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously. I do trust the science! But I trusted the science in 2017 and in 2012 and in 2009 and in 2004 and in 2000 and so on. I am making myself trust the science this time, again , and selfishly I would…
I'm with you on this. And I am absolutely the furthest possible thing from a climate skeptic. If anything, it's just a recognition that this kind of communication from official sources is clearly ineffective. The climate crisis is never ever going to be solved by spontaneous collective action or by appeals to collective action. People will continue to do whatever it is they have to do to get their daily or yearly bas…
What we need are people in positions of power that care.
Okay then - so how do we get those people to materialize?
Absent "appeals to collective action" which you've already determined is never going to work.
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#208I do wish someone would just acknowledge we’ve been getting “final warnings” as well as predictions of catastrophe every few years for decades now. Just recognize that I have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously. I do trust the science! But I trusted the science in 2017 and in 2012 and in 2009 and in 2004 and in 2000 and so on. I am making myself trust the science this time, again , and selfishly I would…
I'm not sure what your expectations are?
IMO the situation is that mainstream science said categorically since before 1990 that CO2 emissions lead to unpleasant outcomes, and gives periodic updates on how the world in aggregate is mostly doing worse then planned in emissions and adds some detail to the predicted resulting consequences.
What would you expect from science and science reporting instead?
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#209Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…
Yeah, those are interesting numbers. Another one I’m curious about is: how much faster are we burning fossil fuels than they are replenished naturally? The only number I found was a low estimate of 750x, and I think that was for oil. I assume “natural” gas is faster?
Given many fossil fuel deposits took millions of years to settle/decompose/compress, I don't think you get a proper X multiplier without an exponent greater than 6.
Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
If climate models were predicting the temperature of your city on March 21, 2120 then your intuition here would be wise. But that is not at all what these models are predicting. They are predicting global average annual temperatures and other gross, planet-scale statistics. "Average annual global temperature in a given year" and "temperature in my city tomorrow" are fundamentally very different types of predictions.…
The point he is making is the disconnect between models and reality. Also when are people held accountable for their models being wrong and the output that comes from that. Climate models has a terrible track record and have failed to materialize over and over again. We have environmental crises all over the place which we should be focused on. The two are not the same thing and climate activism seems to not care abo…
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