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SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

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201–210 of 310 posts

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#201
post #185
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a lot but also means depositors get 80-85% of their money back That's not what happens. Let's say 100 clients each deposited $1 in the bank, and the bank loses $20, so only has $80 to pay out when liquidated. Let's say half (50) depositors withdraw their funds early, they each get $1 back. So now the bank has $30 in assets and has to pay 50 people. Suppose 20 people demand withdrawals, and the bank pays $20…

This isn't bitcoin world though, deposits are FDIC insured to stop this

Not to the amount that most startups would have in their account

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#202
post #185
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a lot but also means depositors get 80-85% of their money back That's not what happens. Let's say 100 clients each deposited $1 in the bank, and the bank loses $20, so only has $80 to pay out when liquidated. Let's say half (50) depositors withdraw their funds early, they each get $1 back. So now the bank has $30 in assets and has to pay 50 people. Suppose 20 people demand withdrawals, and the bank pays $20…

This isn't bitcoin world though, deposits are FDIC insured to stop this

FDIC limits are low. Socialized losses can definitely happen past those limits.

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#203
post #185
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a lot but also means depositors get 80-85% of their money back That's not what happens. Let's say 100 clients each deposited $1 in the bank, and the bank loses $20, so only has $80 to pay out when liquidated. Let's say half (50) depositors withdraw their funds early, they each get $1 back. So now the bank has $30 in assets and has to pay 50 people. Suppose 20 people demand withdrawals, and the bank pays $20…

This isn't bitcoin world though, deposits are FDIC insured to stop this

Deposits ate FDIC insured up to 250k per depositor per bank. Companies with > $250k in the bank need to take the risk that they really can lose that money into account.

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#204
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A bank that can't pay back 100% of deposits has failed. Well, not at the same time. No bank can do that.

The fed seems to have never had a problem when all their customers [i.e. banks/hedgies/wallstreet] come asking.

It's easier when you can print money :)

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#206
post #185
post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a lot but also means depositors get 80-85% of their money back That's not what happens. Let's say 100 clients each deposited $1 in the bank, and the bank loses $20, so only has $80 to pay out when liquidated. Let's say half (50) depositors withdraw their funds early, they each get $1 back. So now the bank has $30 in assets and has to pay 50 people. Suppose 20 people demand withdrawals, and the bank pays $20…

This isn't bitcoin world though, deposits are FDIC insured to stop this

Insured up to $250k. No guarantee there won't be a delay in withdrawing your funds once the Fed takes over.

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#208

In hindsight they shouldn't have bought those MBSs, should have foreseen the coming inflation and the following interest rate hikes, and of course shouldn't have said those words yesterday. However, sad to see what looks to be another government caused implosion. - First, via the massive government stimulus COVID19 SVB got enormous amount of deposits in 2020/2021. They have to put that money to work, and the traditio…

SVB wouldn’t have these issues if they monitored the risk better. If they put the money in short term govt bonds they would be fine. Or if they kept the rates they paid on deposits low to discourage the excess, they would also be fine. Banks are in the business to manage risk. The sad part is this risk management and investment process is concentrated in a very small group. Most of the bank employees are very good, h…

KI used to bank with a small credit union in Sunnyvale, CA - it was a tech credit union (cant recall the name of it ATM)

But they used to have a sheet they posted on the wall near the tellers - this was in 2007-2009 at the height of that particular financial fraud collapse (lehman, etc)

The sheet showed how much the bank was making on over draft fees - and every time I was in the bank I would check that number - and it was stunning to see as deeper we got into that recession, how much that number increased.

They were making about 500k per month on _overdraft_ fees alone...

That said a lot about the state of peoples finances alone.

Re: SVB in talks to sell itself after attempts to raise capital fail

#210

One thing to bear in mind is that "failing" is not binary. The story seems to be that SV put all their deposits into 10 y bonds in 2021. I'll use that as an approximation. A 10Y bond will usually move about 8x as much as the underlying interest rate (it's called "duration"). So if SVB did nothing but buy these bonds and sit on them, then they would have lost about 36% on these (8 x 4.5% rate movement). That's a lot b…

> The story seems to be that SV put all their deposits into 10 y bonds in 2021. Not sure who told you that, its incorrect. https://twitter.com/jamiequint/status/1633956163565002752?s=...

Seems a bit pedantic, MBS are basically bonds. The important part is the 10 year term.
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