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Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

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Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#201
post #172
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Bank is federally insured, it's not a problem that the bank won't be able to make it work. That's why generally speaking bank runs only happen on uninsured banks in the US. SVB is not, as far as I can see, insured and should definitely be careful in their choice of words.

You’re kidding right? There’s a limit of like $250k An individual could easily have that much let alone a startup with millions.

In a bank? If you have that much you really should invest in something better than a bank account. Banks should be petty cash that you spend in a couple months.

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#202

Daily reminder that bank runs wouldn't be a thing if we did duration matching, forbidding banks from borrowing short and lending long. As always, the underlying problem in banking is that the banks are lying, telling two or more people they own the same dollar at the same point in time. If they locked deposits for a period of time they could safely (and morally) loan that money out without lying, and, in fact, there…

This is kind of like saying we can eliminate most automobile fatalities by eliminating cars and making everyone walk or take the train everywhere.

Yes, it would solve one type of problem. But nobody wants your solution because it’s an unreasonable trade off for everyone to solve an extremely rare edge case.

Single-minded optimization for single edge cases is really easy in fantasy worlds, but in the real world people choose trade offs even if they come with rare edge case risks.

> Daily reminder that bank runs wouldn't be a thing if we did duration matching, forbidding banks from borrowing short and lending long.

In other words, no liquid deposits allowed. Banks charge customers to hold their liquid cash because they can’t do anything reasonable with it.

So yes, you could make one type of extremely rare problem go away by removing a desirable feature used by hundreds of millions every day. I don’t think people would actually choose this, though.

> As always, the underlying problem in banking is that the banks are lying, telling two or more people they own the same dollar at the same point in time

Either you don’t understand how banking works, or you’re trying to project a crude misunderstanding onto the general public.

The concepts of assets and liabilities are well understood in the business world. Banks aren’t “lying” and fractional reserve banking does not mean that banks are creating fake dollars. Liabilities have always been part of the equation.

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is how every bank has always worked since banks were invented

Yes, but it’s pretty much always been problematic when a bank leader has had to make a statement akin to “We’re fine as long as there’s not a run”. That’s the kind of thing that only gets said when there’s some concern that there will be a run.

We're fine as long as we don't hit an iceberg.

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is lying in this case? Banks are one, if not the most, regulated companies in the US. What are banks lying about and who are they lying to? I'd assume the government would come down on them pretty hard if it turns out that all banks are lying to their customers as federal and state regulations on banks are pretty heavy handed to make sure that the vast majority of banks are healthy at any given time.

The bank is telling two or more people they own (or, at least, have access to) the same dollar at the same point in time. With duration matching you can have loans, but it is clear that depositor A can't get dollar X back until time point T, and that borrower B can have the dollar until then.

[deleted]

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#205
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re kidding right? There’s a limit of like $250k An individual could easily have that much let alone a startup with millions.

In a bank? If you have that much you really should invest in something better than a bank account. Banks should be petty cash that you spend in a couple months.

i’m not talking about what the savvy thing to do is, just taking issue with the assertion that “it doesn’t matter if a bank fails cause it’s insured” when there’s a limit that the OP either failed to mention or didn’t know about

and not that it matters but this is specifically about a startup or business not talking about personal finances of an individual

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does that provide a better outcome for society than something like FDIC deposit insurance and the occasional run? Seems like for the vast majority of people it does not. Most banks make enough money to pay their FDIC premiums and some interest on demand accounts and profit for their shareholders, and the few that don't are covered by insurance. That seems way better than having to pay a monthly fee to keep my money s…

Yes, it does. Lying is wrong[1]. Therefore, it is bad to base your banking system on it. It's the typical thing where the costs to the system accrete over time and then cause a crisis: the elites are bailed out, the taxpayers eat it. There wouldn't need to be a reserve ratio. A dollar could, in theory, be lent out an infinite number of times, so long as that dollar were lent (and saved) at increasingly shorter durati…

>And, also, loan losses would need to be covered out of other profits by banks

But, like, what if they aren't? Who holds the bag when losses exceed profits? That is of course exactly the case where deposit insurance comes in handy. So I'm pretty sure you still need it.

Your model protects specifically against losses due to time mismatch between deposits and loans, but there are other ways that loans can go bad!

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you loan out deposits you are already set for a bank run. All it takes is the depositors to ask for their money back. One deposit. One loan. One withdrawal request.

Not if the deposit and loan are duration matched. "I want my money back." "Sure, you can have it in two years."

“I want to make a deposit and earn interest”

“Sorry we have to wait for someone else to want a loan”

If you’re trying to solve one extremely rare problem (bank runs) by completely dismantling a much demanded and commonly used banking feature (interest bearing accounts with liquidity) then sure, this would do it.

But nobody actually wants that.

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#209
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps I'm overly skeptical, but everyone should know that all banks have the risk of 'if everyone takes their money out, the bank won't be able to make it work', right?

Everyone doesn't need to know or care in many cases. The FDIC insures deposits up to $250k. That covers the vast majority of accounts at most banks. So a run won't occur at most banks. There were hardly any runs in 2008 for this reason - the relatively few "run type things" which happened were where big interbank exposures existed. SVB's customers are weighted significantly more towards businesses who will have more…

> SVB's customers are weighted significantly more towards businesses who will have more than $250k in the bank.

If you have that much money, FDIC is not adequate for you (and isn't intended to be). There are other mechanisms for those sorts of depositors. Surely, those businesses got solid financial advice and are using them, right?

Re: Bank run on Silicon Valley Bank

#210
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps I'm overly skeptical, but everyone should know that all banks have the risk of 'if everyone takes their money out, the bank won't be able to make it work', right?

Sure, and everyone knows that their favourite person in the world could just run them over in a car and kill them in seconds, but if your best friend says to you, “you know, I could drive my car into you and you would die… your life could be snuffed out with a moments notice” you may start to question your friendship.

Well, the big difference is that the bank CEO's statement doesn't suggest that he will or could do something awful himself.

It is indeed quite common to hear aphorisms like "live every day like it's your last" which make the same point as your analogy, but remove the suggestion that the speaker could be a murderer and are thus much more analogous to the bank CEO's statement.

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