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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#201

Post by anonymouskimmer »

jacquesm wrote: post #186
anonymouskimmer wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been a strong component the world over. Even in the US we've got exemplars such as George Washington, FDR, and the Adams and Bush dynasties. Democracies as political-individual-leader absent as Switzerland are the exception, not the rule. And the less so for other forms of government.

I see significant differences between those. Xi is a dictator in all but name now, that does not hold for the others listed in your comment.

Oh sure. The US governmental structure doesn't easily allow dictators. And it's much easier for an FDR-like fellow to rewrite the Chinese constitution to allow a dictator than to so rewrite the US one.

FDR was probably as close as we got to a Xi like figure, who was able to bend the Supreme court to his will by realistically threatening to pack it.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#202

Post by squeegeeninja »

macinjosh wrote: post #80
andy_ppp wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bought fully into the Russian propaganda then… you’d do well to listen to pretty much any interview by Fiona Hill and you’d quickly realise there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars; there are so many disputed lines that it could lead to conflicts all over the world. China starting a proxy war with the US and Europe is going to be extremely bad for business.

[flagged]

Aaron Maté is a notorious war crimes and genocide denier. His takes on chemical weapons attacks by the Syrian regime (or Russia, for that matter) for example barely rise above the level of blatant, easily disprovable lies.

The same applies to Seymour Hersh. No matter what your opinions on the North Stream bombings and the perpetrator behind them are, his version of events is objectively false. Almost every detail mentioned in his article is very easy to disprove using just publicly available data. Only relying on a single anonymous source in order to make dubious claims has been a dominant motif in his work for at least a decade now.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#203

Post by fuoqi »

lostmsu wrote: post #198
fuoqi wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about Arkady Volozh? He got sanctioned not because he has "direct ties to and props up Putin", but because Yandex operates in Russia and has to follow its rules. Just look at the length of the list with sanctioned persons. Are you seriously saying that all of them have "direct ties to and prop up Putin"?

Yandex has started filtering out independent news about the war while he still was the CEO. He wouldn't have been sanctioned if he resigned when Yandex received that request.

1) You are moving the goalpost compared to GP.

2) Yandex was understandably cautious in the light of the new Russian laws, which effectively put a censorship net on coverage of the war.

3) Are you saying that Volozh should have followed the unspoken Western rules in operation of a business in Russia (read: he should've acted to please the West as much as he can, anticipating its demands) or risk loosing access to all his property in the West without any warning? And you think the Chinese will not see it as a potential risk?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#204

Post by notahacker »

lostmsu wrote: post #191
notahacker wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU also tends to look less kindly on military support for the expansion of the Russian empire than military support for European states' self defence. If you're having trouble processing why, a map of Europe may be handy...

There's no empire with current Russia. They have Belarus and stir a few nearby regions. It is just a fascist state angry it can't have more.

There's no shortage of aspiration to have the empire though, which is why we're talking about a war in Ukraine and why Poland, the Baltics and Moldova take a much more favourable view of sending weapons to Ukraine than sending them to Russia...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#205

Post by ericmay »

philliphaydon wrote: post #153
ericmay wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are 3 that make up a Pacific encirclement (probably the Philippines and perhaps Australia if you want to go that far). Typically that’s what people refer to when they say “surrounded” but obviously China isn’t completely surrounded. The reason these three are used in this context is because Chinese power projection assumes an outward eastern presence in the Pacific and not westward or n…

> and pissing off the Philippines and Japan for no good reason And Vietnam, and India, and every country that borders the South China Sea. It’s like a kid who goes school and buys everyone gifts to make friends but still treats everyone like crap.

Yea you are correct. I’m not sure what was going through my head with leaving them out. May have been thinking about the “strong American Allies” aspect.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#206

Post by 908B64B197 »

ChemSpider wrote: post #40
foota wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

Short term this would wreck western economies worse than the 2007 crisis.

Long term, it would be the end of China and give a massive boost to western economies. In the mainland it would mean massive stagnation/industry collapse as manufacturing is moved to pro-western southeast Asian countries. Millions of unemployed and unmarried (thanks to out of control population control policies) aggressive young man roaming the country with no hope to emigrate thanks to sanctions. Add food insecurity to the mix, since some countries exporting food to China might re-consider their allegiances not to get sanctioned as well and it would spell disaster for the regime.

High net worth individuals getting their foreign assets seized for double allegiance in the west would provide relief to native home buyers and free so much capital to be spent on consumptions good, to soften the blow of higher production costs because of re-shoring.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#207

Post by lostmsu »

fuoqi wrote: post #203
lostmsu wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yandex has started filtering out independent news about the war while he still was the CEO. He wouldn't have been sanctioned if he resigned when Yandex received that request.

1) You are moving the goalpost compared to GP. 2) Yandex was understandably cautious in the light of the new Russian laws, which effectively put a censorship net on coverage of the war. 3) Are you saying that Volozh should have followed the unspoken Western rules in operation of a business in Russia (read: he should've acted to please the West as much as he can, anticipating its demands) or risk loosing access to all…

I think it is pretty clear that once your money are out of China you'd have a choice if shit hits the fan: lose the money in the West and stay in 3rd world or another fascist state (that China will turn into if not there yet), or lose some money in China and relinquish control of involved companies, but be free in the West.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#208

Post by [deleted] »

adaml_623 wrote: post #7

I wonder what the billionaires do to get their money out? Do they pay people to travel with jewellery that gets sold for foreign currency once it's outside China? Do they overpay for imported goods and get the difference paid into a Swiss bank account? It's always interesting to me how really wealthy people pay for loopholes

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#209

Post by papito »

noduerme wrote: post #157
jacquesm wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that in turn might cause them to start a war... Because when the regime has nothing to lose all bets are off, even though it makes no sense whatsoever. They will have to distract from their culpability somehow.

My grandfather was an old Russian whose views on dealing with USSR boiled down to détante, or in his immortal words, "once they have a pot to piss in, they won't fight..." The flipside to that is, China does now have a pot to piss in, and is far less likely to be kettled into a war over something as stupid as an overabundance of crappy housing.

Does this mean "once the people have a normal life, they won't want a war?"

I am seeing the opposite. All dictatorships seem to start getting land conquest ideas once they have the resources. There is a direct correlation between Russia's cash reserves and their belligerence, for example. China is becoming one man, just like Russia is Putin, and it's also becoming a less rational actor as the result.

Allowing the housing bubble (which seems to have enriched those close to the party), punishing the tech sector for their own success, the completely baffling Zero Covid. At some point it's the dear leader's ego and quest for "legacy", not the economy.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#210

Post by chaostheory »

fmajid wrote: post #187
chaostheory wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deng Xiaoping created the seeds of destruction for his reforms when he crushed the peaceful democracy protesters in Tiananmen. This has led to mess after mess with Jiang Zemin, leading eventually to the biggest disaster of them all: Xi In an alternate timeline, one can imagine what a democratic China would look like: - Silicon Valley would have been long overtaken by Shenzhen - Chinese media would have been a strong…

Jiang was actually very pragmatic and good for the economy, building on Deng's legacy, as was Hu.

Jiang was very pragmatic, and the world likely wouldn’t be in this mess if he was able to hold onto more power longer. However, Jiang was also extremely corrupt, and he wanted to hold onto power longer than the terms set by Deng. The man would constantly try to assassinate rivals like Hu and even Xi, which is what led to Xi’s ascension. Hu was much better, but he was also instrumental in Xi’s rise.

Jiang’s Shanghai faction also took the lion’s share of funding, more of which could have gone to the inland provinces

None of this would likely happen if China transitioned to a democracy.

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