201–210 of 282 posts
Geometric mean I’m surprised to see no mention of geometric mean . People far too often incorrectly use Arithmetic Mean (“average”), which doesn’t compute correctly due to the compounding nature of the stock market. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/break...
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basically, yes. Its called the housing market - an asset that controbutes nothing to the economy goes up in value and makes life unaffordable for new generations. There are pther manofestations of thos, and it is not always done by governments. One of the few true reflections of economic health is commodities - those cannot be fakes.
Productivity has been increasing. The amount of land is fixed. In such a scenario, I would definitely expect the value of land to increase.
Geometric mean I’m surprised to see no mention of geometric mean . People far too often incorrectly use Arithmetic Mean (“average”), which doesn’t compute correctly due to the compounding nature of the stock market. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/break...
I don't see how that relates to the article?
The reason this kind of analysis is irrelevant is that human civilization has only been exploiting oil since ~ early 1900s. Sure, fossil fuels in the form of coal has been exploited before, but nothing on the scale of coal/gas/oil use that started after the Great Depression and ramped up to peak per capita consumption circa 1970s if memory serves. So you always have to look at that historic period discounting that, a…
>Tech advancements are slowing down Are they? I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years, but it seems like the advances in things like AI and Genomics are rapidly accelerating and may lead to growth like we haven't seen in several decades...
I got my first mobile phone in 2002. Mobile phones had been around for a while but at least in Australia phone plans were very expensive and it was not really affordable for my parents to pay for a phone for me while I was in High school.
A few of my friends had phones towards the end of High School (maybe 40% of people had a phone by end of school) but mostly you would call people's land lines to get in touch with them. The most popular phone at the time was the Nokia "Brick phones" like the 3210.
My first phone was a Motorola I can't remember the model but it was absolutely privative compared to modern day phones - it had a monochrome screen, no camera or anything like that. About the only cool feature was it had was a polyphonic ringtone which was pretty advanced for the time. A Few years later (2005ish) I upgraded my handset to a "flip phone" which had color screen and a camera (but camera quality was shocking everything just a mess of pixels).
I want to say it was maybe 2007 or 2008 when I started to get data (i.e. internet) on my phone it was really slow (and expensive) but I remember looking up a train timetable on my phone and thinking it was revolutionary, having the internet in your pocket genuinely felt game changing.
I purchased a computer with money I saved up working over the summer before I started Uni. It was a Pentium 4 with a 2 ghz Clock speed. It ran Windows XP (Cheaper lower end computers at the time had Windows Millennium Edition, which was complete garbage). It had a 19 inch CRT monitor which weighed a tonne. "Flat panel" LCD screens were available but were very expensive.
ADSL internet had just started coming out in Australia, before that it was 56k dial up or cable (which was extremely expensive I only knew one person with cable internet). I used to play games like Starcraft and Diablo 2 over dial up around this time period, if my Mum picked up the phone to make a call the internet would drop out.
DVD's were relatively new technology. I got the Collectors Edition DVD of Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings as a Christmas gift, it is still one of my prized possessions.
If my 18 year old self was to look around my home today he would be in awe of how much the technology has changed.
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Productivity has been increasing. The amount of land is fixed. In such a scenario, I would definitely expect the value of land to increase.
Uk is a densely populated country, and 95% of land is just empty - field, forest, whatever. Only 5% of land is built on.
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What is your suggestion to do instead? Owning a non index fund will have a fee of at least 1% Putting it under your mattress makes you lose from inflation. I'm not sure doing 60 / 40 stocks and bonds could be another solution.
Think about your investments intelligently instead of looking for a guaranteed sinecure.
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You disagree that buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends? > I think a company that has no intention of paying a dividend is merely an over produced digital collectible. So, Amazon is a NFT?
If Amazon cannot grow, then yes, it's stock price will go down losing you more than you bought the shares for.
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The Medallion Fund by Renaissance Technologies has had an average annual return of 71.8% from 1994-2014.
What is not known, however, is if those returns were achieved through legal means…
presumably the SEC would have their software sift through transactions to correlate insider trading (which is one form of illegal way to make money).
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Yahoo does have this “Adjusted Close” column available in their historical data downloads, but they do not use it for charts. Their charts are price-only. Same with Google Finance and Apple Stocks.
Definitely not seeing Alphabet's 20:1 split in July 2022 when I glance at Yahoo Finance charts - you sure about that? Or are you saying they're adjusted for some corporate actions but not for others? EDIT: OK, I see there's a note that close is split-adjusted but not dividend-adjusted.