San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash • Hacker News Board

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#201

Post by jfghi » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:34 PM UTC

pixl97 wrote: post #166

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> city officials are asleep at the wheel Eh, San Francisco's voters have been drinking crazy water for some time. New developments blocked by renters. Stringent building codes and environmental reviews defended by those who think they're being compassionate to the poor. Scolding tech companies for hiring in the city and then panicking when they stop hiring in the city. This obviously isn't all of them. But it's not l…

Yea, people love blaming (elected) city officials but NIMBYism and "Housing is an investment that should only go up in price" will eventually kill any market.

I agree that nimbyism is harmful, however I also think that the organizations owning large portfolios of properties can generally find a way to maintain scarcity levels in the presence of additional construction.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#202

Post by onlyrealcuzzo » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:34 PM UTC

gofreddygo wrote: post #179

darth_avocado wrote: post #127

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

In The city You're screwed when you rent a home or office. You're screwed when you own a home. You're screwed when you eat. You're screwed when you drink. You're screwed when you commute. You're screwed when you walk the streets. You're screwed when you (pay) park your car on the street. homeless? neglected commuters? neglected business owners? neglected public workers? neglected tourists? neglected I just don't know…

Speculators?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#203

Post by dieselgate » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:34 PM UTC

ptmcc wrote: post #8

bragr wrote: post #2

Give the corresponding housing crisis in the Bay Area, one wonders if the solution is to "simply" start converting office space to living space until the corresponding demand for office space recovers from a combination of increased demand and decreased supply. Now I'm sure there are all kinds of challenges to doing that, engineering, zoning, other practicalities, but it seems overall reasonable to me, though perhaps…

Most offices have physical layouts that make conversion to residential difficult to impossible. Big things like lots of interior square footage without windows and plumbing only to a few central locations. And while some or even most of this is fixable, major renovations are a ton of cost and effort to convert them to something that will still be expensive and weird, if even possible to meet the legal requirements of…

Interesting point and seems pretty logical. There are a lot of warehouse/commercial spaces used for housing in places like Oakland and am sure people would want to live there (mentioned commercial spaces) if they could. Hopefully it’s safe for living, though, the Ghostship fire comes to mind specifically

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#204

Post by hadlock » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:35 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #38

This could work out. Most of the emptying buildings are in low-lying fill areas. Those will need to be demolished as the glaciers melt.

Most of downtown is a dozen+ feet above sea level, new waterfront construction (the new ferry docks in particular) are all built to the new standard, by ~2077 or whatever the waterfront will be ready for new sea level standards. There's a plan in place to put a tidal lock in front of mission bay canal. Downtown is on a fill, but you're talking less than six inches next to the transamerica building, and less than two meters heading east toward the ferry building. The big fill area is south of Oracle Park which is sitting on 8-12 feet of poor-grade fill like trash and random construction debris, although most (all?) of those buildings are sitting on stilts going down to bedrock, in particular those in the 3 blocks closest to the water.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#205

Post by delecti » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:35 PM UTC

arberx wrote: post #107

Companies will force their employees back in person. Already seeing it happen. Companies will have power to do this in a downturn.

To what benefit though? Surely they're not better off by having to pay power/water costs in the office when people come back, right?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#206

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:35 PM UTC

cpursley wrote: post #191

darth_avocado wrote: post #127

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

Money goes to where it's treated best and people vote with their feet. I know people thumb their nose on the state, but Florida is open for business. But the real secret is Puerto Rico and their incredible tax incentives for software companies.

[deleted]

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#207

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:35 PM UTC

babyshake wrote: post #176

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> city officials are asleep at the wheel Eh, San Francisco's voters have been drinking crazy water for some time. New developments blocked by renters. Stringent building codes and environmental reviews defended by those who think they're being compassionate to the poor. Scolding tech companies for hiring in the city and then panicking when they stop hiring in the city. This obviously isn't all of them. But it's not l…

> New developments blocked by renters. I wonder how much of this is renters who feel they are just one IPO or acquisition away from being owners.

> wonder how much of this is renters who feel they are just one IPO or acquisition away from being owners

I don't think they're the ones protesting. One, it's irrational: if a windfall is around the corner, you want prices temporarily depressed. Two, political nihilism and detachment have been fashionable among San Francisco's political middle class for a few decades now. They are more likely to be proudly refusing to vote than attending town halls, speaking to their electeds or participating in protests. (I say this with sardonic affection for dear friends.)

The second point is starting to change. But culture has inertia. It will take time.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#208

Post by rgrieselhuber » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:35 PM UTC

bluejekyll wrote: post #171

darth_avocado wrote: post #127

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

> Crime is rampant According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ... > Drug use and filth is everywhere. Voters can’t seem to wrap their head around better housing policies to get people off the street. It’s disappointing, the entire Bay Area is guilty of this.

Regarding crime, that data only goes to 2019. I'd be shocked if things are not much worse now.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#209

Post by andreilys » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:35 PM UTC

bluejekyll wrote: post #171

darth_avocado wrote: post #127

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

> Crime is rampant According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ... > Drug use and filth is everywhere. Voters can’t seem to wrap their head around better housing policies to get people off the street. It’s disappointing, the entire Bay Area is guilty of this.

Anecdotally a lot of friends in SF don’t bother reporting crimes because they know the police won’t do anything and it’ll be just a waste of their time reporting it.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#210

Post by pesfandiar » Tue, Sep 06, 2022, 6:36 PM UTC

bluejekyll wrote: post #171

darth_avocado wrote: post #127

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

> Crime is rampant According to the data, crime in SF is lower that it was a few years ago: https://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-San-Francisco-Californ... > Drug use and filth is everywhere. Voters can’t seem to wrap their head around better housing policies to get people off the street. It’s disappointing, the entire Bay Area is guilty of this.

I wouldn't be so sure about the official stats. We've had a similar phenomenon in Vancouver, where perceived crime has been going up in downtown core, especially during the lockdowns. However, people have given up on calling the police for property crimes and random attacks on residents. This has led to lower crime stats.