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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#201

Post by xeromal »

_8j50 wrote: post #157
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

How can one profit from this? Any good short positions?

Buy SPY, wait 10 years, $$$, Profit.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#202

Post by DuskStar »

weakfish wrote: post #195
NeverFade wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...

I mean, CNN is basically the left version of Fox News, it’s not representative of center media.

It's closer to the center than the other major news network, MSNBC.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#203

Post by tootie »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #162
tootie wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That definition was only ever a rule of thumb. The fact is, you can't define it. It's like setting a temperature that is officially "cold". The current economic indicators are almost completely unprecedented in the growth is weak, inflation is very high and yet employment remains historically strong. As much as GDP represents the broadest indicator of economic health, if you're looking for a headline to apply to the…

What is a recession if not loss of buying power and material wellbeing? How is more people working for less pay a counterargument against recession.?

All things being equal, more people working is a an increase in buying power. The decreased buying power of wages is only negative relative to the amount people being paid a wage. Which itself is a function of both employment opportunity and size of the labor force. The recent rise in inflation is definitely correlated with a rise in wages albeit at a slightly lower rate resulting in a roughly 1% lag in the past year. If you map out wages paid per GDP you can get an idea of how much of a share of economic growth has been going to workers and it's a been a pretty solid, steady decline since 1970:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=Sfun

So, that sucks, but it doesn't make a useful definition of recession. This is the result of massive, global macroeconomic forces. It's basically a slow reset of the post-WWII global order.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#204

Post by throwaway5959 »

_ea1k wrote: post #163
blululu wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sure both oil refinery executives and the executive branch of the us government wish that they did have that much control over gas prices. The reality is that gas prices are set by market mechanisms of an international commodity. Gas costs what it costs.

There is a regulatory aspect as well. The current regulatory environment is not encouraging an increase in refinery capacity, and that seems to be our current bottleneck. This is not a value judgment as to whether this is right or wrong.

Should Joe Biden get some streamers and make a poster to show his support for oil refineries? He isn’t in charge of spending; that’s Congress. Maybe he should issue an executive order forcing oil refining capacity back online? Then you’d bitch about government overreach.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#205

Post by ifyoubuildit »

bandyaboot wrote: post #125
rajin444 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's similar to global warming/climate change. Moving from the former to the latter wasn't some nefarious plot to move the goalposts. The former is an imprecise term which hadn't mattered very much until that imprecision began to be weaponized by those with an agenda. Same thing with vaccines, the previous definition was inaccurate--but up until the covid vaccines, nobody pretended to be bothered by it. There hasn't…

> nobody pretended to be bothered by it

How often do you get to a successful resolution of a dispute when you start from the position that one side's concerns are made up (pretended, imagined, etc)?

> There hasn't been any notable effort to discredit flu vaccines because they don't offer permanent, or even particularly reliable immunity in the many years that they have existed.

These are the reasons that I never opted to get the flu shot, and I never had my professional and social lives threatened as a result.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#206

Post by digdugdirk »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #173
_8j50 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can one profit from this? Any good short positions?

The exact opposite, Buy long positions at a discount

But you need to time the dip with this strategy, otherwise you're underwater in the meantime.

I think the question was, "How can I profit as things get worse?" Or, "What are good ways to protect myself as things go downhill?"

My recommendation? Reduce expenses. And think about investing in ways to reduce those expenses - Toilet paper is expensive, buying a bidet can save money after X uses. Meat can be expensive, see if a farmer in your area is willing to sell you the meat of a full cow at a discount for you to freeze and use over the course of X months.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#207

Post by nightski »

ceejayoz wrote: post #189
nightski wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is largely irrelevant.

As is the President re: gas pricing.

Which is not true either, as the dip we've seen over the past several weeks can attest. We've deeply tapped into our reserves (much more than expected as released yesterday) to achieve this. It seems like it might be short sighted and short lived.

Also if the president has no effect on gas prices why was ours groveling at the feet of the Saudi Prince?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#208

Post by teolandon »

gorwell wrote: post #113
thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

1984 does not apply here in any way shape or form.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#209

Post by librish »

andrew_ wrote: post #160
disantlor wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, and not injecting the money would have a negative long-term effect. I'm saying while it's difficult to be sure, it's at least reasonable to conclude that we traded a short term disaster for smaller long-term pain. Maybe you disagree, but I don't get why people are acting like this is sinister.

it would seem that you are basing aspects of argument on feelings, perceived individual benefit, and speculation. That's not a debate I'm interested in engaging in. I prefer to look at the facts as they are at present.

But how can you argue that we're living in a world that's worse than if we hadn't done the stimulus when you haven't lived in that world?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#210

Post by ConceitedCode »

safog wrote: post #199
ConceitedCode wrote: post #32

In the USA, "officially" a group of 8 economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research decides when a recession starts. I suspect other countries have their own definitions. "The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria…

Has a technical recession ever not resulted in an actual recession as declared by NBER?

Great question! Not that I'm aware of (EDIT: sseagull provided a good example in 1947). To be fair, I can't think of any time where we've seen 2 quarters of negative GDP growth while maintaining "full" employment and wage growth. This is an unusual recession if it is a recession.
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