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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#201

Post by YZF »

carbadtraingood wrote: post #55
jackmott42 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD may be a huge fraud but the whole company is not. The cars are real!

The cars are real but they are... Mediocre. The first year of ownership is an amazing honeymoon period, assuming you got one with decent build quality. But the parts are cheap, and they break quickly. I've had one for 5+ years and it's gradually become something I prefer driving less and less.

3.5 years here with a model 3. Zero problems. Still love it. What other EV would you pick and what would you use instead of the supercharger network? I don't want to own any more gasoline cars...

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#202

Post by raydiatian »

aidenn0 wrote: post #111
raydiatian wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of. Your wording actually assumes down to its core that driving is inherently social, when in fact I think it may be only provisionally social. Driving currently “is social” in a few senses, But of course the important (and obvious) one is that it currently involves accounting for human-operated vehicles. Alternatively, an autonomous vehicle operator in a homogenous network full of other autonomous operators has…

This assumes that roads are used exclusively by autonomous vehicles, when our roads are not used exclusively by motor vehicles to begin with.

> “This assumes our roads are used exclusively by autonomous vehicles”

I not only assume it, I say it out loud: “[fully autonomous, …] maybe even majority homogenous, partly heterogenous?”

> “When our roads are not used exclusively by motor vehicles to begin with.”

I’m not following what you’re saying here in the context of the earlier clause. If you mean not used exclusively by autonomous vehicles, yes, and that’s why I’m pointing out the provisional aspect.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#203

Post by glitchc »

RC_ITR wrote: post #182
throwaway123989 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Yep, I talk to people working in traffic engineering, and their mindset is always building new road tech and road-side and cloud infra to support autonomous driving. They have no expect…

Which is funny because everything sort of comes back to trains. The very marginal benefits of laying road vs track more or less disappear when automation in play. Is is really worth maintaining the ability to go off road/track when you’re not even driving anymore?

Exactly. All edge cases disappear when you lay tracks on the road.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#204

Post by powerhour »

dibujante wrote: post #109
naijaboiler wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6. Need to reasonably predict what that human that just made eye contact with you would likely do next, and how that's different from what he might do when he doesn’t make eye contact with you. And all of that differs if you're in NYC or SF or small town, Indiana

7. Need to understand that drunk person staggering along the roadside has been repeatedly slipping off the sidewalk and there's a non-zero chance they trip and fall right in front of you.

8. Need to understand that sometimes the stripes you see aren't the real stripes, you're driving near sunset and are seeing the sun reflected off of old stripes that were painted over with glossy black (wtf WSDOT).

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#205

Post by powerhour »

idop wrote: post #170
bhauer wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The screens melt in Arizona heat. That's a very old talking point about the original Model S screens from ~2012. Do you have any recent justification for this claim?

https://reddit.com/comments/vt7w3d

Yeah but that was literally a week ago, got anything more recent?

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#206

Post by dreamcompiler »

moomoo11 wrote: post #82
dreamcompiler wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Musk actually said this he's an even bigger idiot than I gave him credit for. He makes the best cars in the world (obviously IMHO) and that's worth a lot more than 0. I couldn't give less of a damn if they can't drive themselves.

I ended up selling mine because the build quality started getting on my nerves. Misaligned panels that are "within spec" or interior rattles that make the ride completely unpleasant (at only 10k miles). The tech is all right, and I got to try auto pilot at a discount. Unfortunately the phantom braking made AP completely useless with passengers who would freak out and complain. However, when it worked it was quite nic…

This is mostly not my experience after 18 months but I appreciate your report. My car's build quality has been nearly perfect (which I didn't expect because of lots of contrary reports in 2020.) I tried FSD on the $200/month plan and I agree it's bad. The car stopped at green lights, kept going at red, turned right from the middle lane, etc. So I canceled it.

I live in the Rocky Mountains so I can relate about the hills, but haven't noticed a big range deficit from them. Probably because every uphill has a corresponding downhill and regen braking can recover some of the uphill energy loss. What I notice much more is wind. Driving fast into a headwind entails a huge energy loss (proportional to your airspeed cubed--yikes!) and it cannot be recovered. OTOH driving with a tailwind can add significant range.

I've also not noticed much of a problem finding open superchargers but that might be because I mostly drive in "flyover country." The supercharger network has also expanded significantly just in the 18 months I've had the car.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#207

Post by alasdair_ »

andsoitis wrote: post #167
gruturo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon in 2028: “time machine!” Well, to be fair, he only has to hit _that_ goal - at which point he can go back in time at his leisure and fix all the others. And he could hit even the time machine goal as late as he wants, and it won't matter.

I think we can tell for certain that time travel will never be invented because if it were to happen, then logically we’d already be experiencing people visiting us from the future.

Hello! It’s me, your visitor from 22 minutes into the future!

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#208

Post by cjbgkagh »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

What about the people who died beta testing it.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#209

Post by Animats »

impulser_ wrote: post #8
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

Waymo and Cruise routinely have driverless cars on city streets. In California, all collisions, however minor, have to be reported, and DMV posts them on their web site.[1] Most are very minor. Here's a more serious one from last month:

"A Cruise autonomous vehicle ("Cruise AV") operating in driverless autonomous mode, was traveling eastbound on Geary Boulevard toward the intersection with Spruce Street. As it approached the intersection, the Cruise AV entered the left hand turn lane, turned the left turn signal on, and initiated a left turn on a green light onto Spruce Street. At the same time, a Toyota Prius traveling westbound in the rightmost bus and turn lane of Geary Boulevard approached the intersection in the right turn lane. The Toyota Prius was traveling approximately 40 mph in a 25 mph speed zone. The Cruise AV came to a stop before fully completing its turn onto Spruce Street due to the oncoming Toyota Prius, and the Toyota Prius entered the intersection traveling straight from the turn lane instead of turning. Shortly thereafter, the Toyota Prius made contact with the rear passenger side of the Cruise AV. The impact caused damage to the right rear door, panel, and wheel of the Cruise AV. Police and Emergency Medical Services were called to the scene, and a police report was filed. The Cruise AV was towed from the scene. Occupants of both vehicles received medical treatment for allegedly minor injuries."

Now, this shows the strengths and weaknesses of the system. The Cruise vehicle was making a left turn from Geary onto Spruce. Eastbound Geary at this point has a dedicated left turn lane cut out of a grass median, two through lanes, a right turn bus/taxi lane, and a bus stop lane. It detected cross traffic that shouldn't have been in that lane and was going too fast. So it stopped, and was hit.

It did not take evasive action, which might have worked. Or it might have made the situation worse. By not doing so, it did the legally correct thing. The other driver will be blamed for this. But it may not have done the thing most likely to avoid an accident. This is the real version of the trolley problem.

[1] https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...

[2] https://earth.google.com/web/@37.78169591,-122.45337171

[3] https://patch.com/california/san-francisco/speed-limit-lower...

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#210

Post by ShamelessC »

rafaelero wrote: post #165
learndeeply wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you've demonstrated that FSD follows scaling laws, this comment is pretty meaningless.

I am not aware of any autoregressive transformer model that doesn't follow scaling laws. Tesla only needs to tokenize actions and images and voi la, self-driving capabilities. The problem, of course, is how you deploy such a big model so every car can run it locally.

Scaling parameter count requires a similar increase in the amount of (accurate, labeled) data. This can be mitigated by “bootstrapping” techniques that make labeling new data easier, but is still likely the bottleneck for training such a model effectively (assuming they can probably spin up a supercomputer to scale their models otherwise).
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