China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#201

Post by smegger001 » Mon, Mar 07, 2022, 2:55 AM UTC

bingohbangoh wrote: post #114

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2] If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4] If Ukraine was doin…

a major front in a modern war is digital propaganda. You have to keep your own peoples moral up and sap the will of the enemy, next you have to convince the rest of the world that your cause is just, winable and that they should suport you and demonize your enemy.

Russia has failed on this front as their propaganda has been so transparently bad.

they accused Ukraine of being run by Nazis, when their president and prime minister are both Jewish. they accused them of running death camps for Russian and all sort of other ridiculous slander so unbelievable the no one believes it.

Ukraine has done all things considered pretty well outside of the examples you mentioned.

As for arming civilians what do you expect a militarily inferior country to do when facing a stronger enemy and the rest of the world seems to afraid to send meaningful military aid. Its a battle for their survival. If I lived there I would be lining up to get gun too.

the winning narrative is coming form them not being steam rolled like last time and them holding ground. Or from russian soldiers surrendering and going AWOL.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#202

Post by smegger001 » Mon, Mar 07, 2022, 3:06 AM UTC

davidjytang wrote: post #189

audessuscest wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right the other way. It would be the perfect timing for China. Do you think the west can afford sanctioning the shit out of China now? They can't even sanction Russia properly. Do you think China prefer to wait that the west figured their shit out to depend less on other countries? Plus now Russia, Belarus, depends so much from China... and I bet many other countries are thinking of getting the fuck away from the wes…

> I would be very surprised that Taiwan is not next. Just wanna establish some clear understanding on what you mean by "next". Would you be very surprised if Taiwan is not invaded within 3 months? 6 months? or 12 months? Or what you mean is that you would be surprised that there can even be another invasion elsewhere after the invasion of Ukraine and before the invasion of Taiwan?

depends on how this plays out. If the west gets it act together and helps Ukraine it may be postponed indefinitely. If they start making side deals with Russia and ignoring Ukraine while they start taking major losses 6 months to 2 years. If full scale war breaks out between Russia and NATO 3 months (we will be to busy to do anything about it or they will think that). If nuclear war starts it to chaotic to tell, but if say its a limited exchange and both make it out unbombed and they aren't all dying of radition poisoning from the fallout whenever they want.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#203

Post by smegger001 » Mon, Mar 07, 2022, 3:11 AM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #146

kerneloftruth wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

> Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. That makes no sense. Being an island is good for you if you are the defender. For it to be a plus to China, China will first have to capture it.

only if you are self sufficient and not facing a opponent that has more that enough fire power to carpet bomb the entire island from a distance or more soldiers than you have bullets.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#204

Post by schleck8 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 10:31 PM UTC

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #63

schleck8 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per Orwell you wouldn't even know the phrase is ironic, so apparently it does not apply.

It's a good, if horrifying, book; you should read it. But no, the point of doublethink isn't that people don't know that they're doing it; it's that they betray themselves and support the Party.

Yes, exactly. If you tell yourself something often enough it's hardly distinguishable from a fact.