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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#201

Post by mrlonglong »

988747 wrote: post #174
gvb wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MIG-29s which they are already flying, not B-52s which are useless to them. The deal fell apart, however. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-poland-sending-fighter-...

This is a kind of Catch 22 situation with how to deliver those MIG-29s: If a Polish pilot flies it to Ukraine, Russia will consider that an act of war, and possibly start bombarding Poland. If Ukrainian pilot comes to Poland and takes off from a Polish airport then again: that is an act of war. The only possibility to deliver them without joining the war against Russia seems to be to disassemble those MIGs and send t…

If we can supply by road and trains without being drawn into a wider conflict, then it should be possible to send by air.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#202

Post by darkarmani »

dragonwriter wrote: post #147
999900000999 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for articulating this better than I could. You had a CBS* commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city". That said, I think much of Russia's restraint is due to their end goal. Ukraine's Russian backed president was outted in a coup back in 2014. The new pro West leadership decided to go dancing with John McCain. This entire conflict could of been a…

> You had a CNN commentator straight up saying this is different than Middle East wars since Kyiv is a " civilized city". CBS News foreign correspondent Charlie D'Agata, actually. > It's not hard to imagine if Haiti had a US backed leader, who was removed in a coup and then replaced with a pro Russia / pro China president. Now imagine China and Russia announcing plans for various military bases on Haiti. The Russians…

> Uh, you know this actually happened in a different Caribbean island state and, while there was a bit of a dispute about nuclear weapons that resulted in both alliances pulling them back from each others borders in a quid pro quo

What nuclear weapons were being placed in Ukraine? Russia's only argument is that "someday maybe, perhaps, it could possibly happen".

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#203

Post by gpm »

988747 wrote: post #174
gvb wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MIG-29s which they are already flying, not B-52s which are useless to them. The deal fell apart, however. https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-poland-sending-fighter-...

This is a kind of Catch 22 situation with how to deliver those MIG-29s: If a Polish pilot flies it to Ukraine, Russia will consider that an act of war, and possibly start bombarding Poland. If Ukrainian pilot comes to Poland and takes off from a Polish airport then again: that is an act of war. The only possibility to deliver them without joining the war against Russia seems to be to disassemble those MIGs and send t…

Ukraine just yesterday flew a MIG-29 back from Romania, unarmed and escorted to the border by Romania jets/from the border by armed Ukranian jets. No-one seems concerned that that's an act of war.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#204

Post by ceejayoz »

HideousKojima wrote: post #67
micromacrofoot wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine really doesn't want war, the odds are stacked against them and without significant outside ground troops they'll be devastated even if Russia is as incompetent as they currently appear. Killing aggressors is often used as an excuse for the aggressors to be more aggressive and Russia's army is large enough to replace that convoy a few times over without much of a sweat. Violence also helps back the idea that R…

>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely i…

I mean, if Russia wants to deNazify, they can start at home first.

https://twitter.com/Kyruer/status/1370361298135965702

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#205

Post by axiosgunnar »

Anechoic wrote: post #121
adventured wrote: post #59

The West should be offering ~$5 million per Russian jet that defects, along with EU citizenship. The US should put up a billion dollars for the program to get it started. Land the jets in NATO territory. Let's put troop loyalty to the test and see if we can't drain some of their best hardware. We're not allowed to attack Russia directly so let's plunder them. Our leaders are not being nearly creative enough in this s…

The West should be offering ~$5 million per Russian jet that defects, along with EU citizenship. Skeptical that would be effective for two reasons: 1. Pilots that have family back home probably won't be eager to take the offer 2. Russia has shown no qualms about targeted assassinations in foreign lands.

You might be right, but here are some counterarguments:

> 1. Pilots that have family back home probably won't be eager to take the offer

Russia has not been known to do North-Korea-style family executions (so far)

> 2. Russia has shown no qualms about targeted assassinations in foreign lands.

Russia might be too weak after all this is over to still have these capabilities.

Time will tell!

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#206

Post by standardUser »

jefftk wrote: post #168

This cites but doesn't link "The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force", which is a much more thorough treatment: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar... They list three possible explanations: * Too few precision-guided munitions (PGMs) * Risk of friendly fire from surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) due to poor coordination * Lack of experienced Russian pilots

"Lack of experienced Russian pilot"

This one is so hard for me to imagine, given Russia's long history of aerospace pride and massive military budget. The article attributes it to limited flying time compared to US/UK pilots and unfamiliarity with their latest and most advanced jets. Truly hard to comprehend how a military like Russia's could be suffering from lack of training despite a multi-year lead-up to a massive invasion.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#207

Post by PaulHoule »

_moof wrote: post #135
PaulHoule wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead people like me make "spatial computing" led hula hoops and other harmless stuff like that... And those EEG cat ears!

The world would be much better off with more LED hula hoops and fewer guided missiles.

It's funny because we were brainstorming on the hoop the other night and it hit me that this was the killer app for a "cheap and cheerful" inertial navigation system.

The Trident 2 submarine missile has a gyroscope in it that costs almost as much as the nuclear warhead because it is so resistant to drift that it can be spun up and locked on in port and maintain its position when the submarine is at sea.

If you tried INS with a smart phone or wiimote the errors in velocity estimation will build up quickly and you'll get terrible drift.

In the case of the spatial computing hoop though you know the hoop never gets far away from the user so you can damp the D.C. component of the velocity, work in coordinates relative the user's center of gravity and never notice any drift in the x or y coordinates. (I don't like damping the vertical so much but I think I can live with it.)

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#208

Post by darawk »

smallerfish wrote: post #140
HideousKojima wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated). It definitely isn't "completely fabricated": https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion The real problem is, who gives a shit if a small unit in the Ukrainian National Guard is made up of far right extremists? It's a purely i…

Could you not imagine the Proud Boys being allowed to serve as a unit if Canada seized Montana and Idaho, and the national guard needed resources? (With the assumption that the US had a GDP equivalent to Ukraine's.)

Keep in mind Ukraine is a very poor country being attacked by a much larger, richer, and more powerful country. This would be more comparable to Mexico deputizing the cartels if the US decided to invade.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#209

Post by ProjectArcturis »

guyromm wrote: post #42

I believe they were working under the assumption it would be a walk in the park, once the central government was captured or killed. To strengthen this assumption here's a canned article which was likely meant to be published had things gone according to plan, but pulled, since they hadn't. https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20... RIA is a state owned news agency. Why precisely they thought the…

What's Russian for "We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators"?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#210

Post by drran »

whimsicalism wrote: post #65
milesdyson_phd wrote: post #56

One thing I don't understand is Russia's opening missile salvos, they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force. I guess you could theorize they didn't want to destroy that infrastructure in the event that the Ukrainian government rolled over, but that seems to have been a risky bet that is currently playing out.

> they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force Keep in mind that media reports and reports from the Ukrainian military are designed to minimize losses and boost morale. I've seen quite a few videos of Ukrainian planes destroyed on the tarmac and there isn't evidence for a significant Ukrainian air presence anymore.

We lost over 2000 civilians in last week on Ukraine-controlled territory.

We don't need to bust moral after 8 years of war. It's not possible to bust something 8 years straight. My FB is full of «killed by Russian», «lost in fight», etc.

You spoke at behalf of Ukrainians, but you have zero information from Ukraine. If you have facts, then list them, please.

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