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Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

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Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#201

Post by koonsolo »

bluecalm wrote: post #200
koonsolo wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Next to my other comment here, let me do a quick calculation then, if you are correct. BTC = 60K * (0.4 USD + 0.6 USDT) Now let's say USDT is only backed by USD at 50%, that would make: BTC = 60K * (0.4 USD + 0.3 USD) -> 0.7 USD, which would put the price of BTC at 42K USD. I can live with that :D.

USD being backed at 50% is a fairy fantasy less likely than a pink unicorn coming down to Earth and solving climate warming. They weren't even backed at 50% a few years ago when their market cap like 10+x smaller in comparison to what is now. 5% is an optimistic estimation for how it it is today.

Ok, so let's say bitcoin is half priced then... still ok for me :D

Besides, not being backed by real USD doesn't mean people didn't pour in real money. So in the end only the Tethers that were created out of thin air count towards the price inflation. So the ones people paid money for are still 'legit' in that sense.

So worst case still seems OK for me.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#202

Post by anthonygd »

dnautics wrote: post #190
imtringued wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin just creates a new class of rich people. It's still the using same mechanisms but it is happening faster. Asset has no holding fee and gets more expensive? People speculate with it at the expense of those who will have to acquire it later (the poor).

I'm not arguing to abolish rich people, I'm just saying we should stop stealing from the poor.

In what way are you saying we steal from the poor? How does bitcoin steal less?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#203

Post by jqpabc123 »

koonsolo wrote: post #185
jqpabc123 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price. It has everything to do with Tether. Tether is being minted with an illusionary value of $1USD and "loaned" to favored insiders which use it to buy Bitcoin and inflate the price. The fact that Bitcoin trades for $60k is the result of this being done in the past. The reason new investors pay $60k is their expectation it…

Ok, so please enlighten me. > More than half of all Bitcoin trades involve Tether So how much of this Tether is fake money? When I buy crypto, I do that with fiat coming from a fractional reserve bank. So basically 1% is money the bank has now, and 99% is lended and "should be available at some point". This all seems like a system that just begs for a cryptocurrency solution :p. Tether is part of the fiat system, not…

Tether is part of the fiat system, not cryptocurrency.

LOL!

Tether has no role in the fiat system other than it's fictitious claims of relative value.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#204

Post by trixie_ »

graeme wrote: post #150
ur-whale wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just tried transferring my free Coinbase That's not a wallet to wallet crypto transfer. That's a Coinbase transfer. Coinbase is awful as are the majority of other onramps.

Ok walk me through these wallet to wallet transfers and how they’re easier than bank transfers outside of the US. Like in Canada or Europe. In 10 seconds I can my friend’s account and they can use that money to pay online with debit, instantly. Or, spend an extra $100 on their credit card, instantly, knowing their checking account has the room to pay it on bill date. Tell me how a wallet transfer beats that.

Venmo, PayPal, etc.. but these are closed ecosystems. It is difficult to transfer money between services or even to/from yourself without a bank intermediary. Especially for larger amounts of money things take a lot longer.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#205

Post by hiyer »

trixie_ wrote: post #76

Transferring money through banks is such a pain in the ass versus crypto. It really feels like we’re at a tipping point where ACH and wire transfers become the equivalent of writing a check.

I assume you live in the US, which may be quite primitive in this department. In India, and also many parts of Africa, all you need to transfer money from one account to another is to know their phone number. And the transfer is instantaneous.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#206

Post by koonsolo »

jqpabc123 wrote: post #203
koonsolo wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, so please enlighten me. > More than half of all Bitcoin trades involve Tether So how much of this Tether is fake money? When I buy crypto, I do that with fiat coming from a fractional reserve bank. So basically 1% is money the bank has now, and 99% is lended and "should be available at some point". This all seems like a system that just begs for a cryptocurrency solution :p. Tether is part of the fiat system, not…

Tether is part of the fiat system, not cryptocurrency. LOL! Tether has no role in the fiat system other than it's fictitious claims of relative value.

As long as they have >1% backed by cash, they are doing better than any fractional reserve bank ;p.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#207

Post by paxys »

dnautics wrote: post #192
koonsolo wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "irrationality of the market" is most of the time just blaming everyone else for your own mistake. "I was right, it's just that the whole market keeps being wrong". Denial at its finest.

Not if it eventually crashes, you had given a mechanism, and the mechanism was indeed the causal factor in the eventual crash.

The market always eventually crashes. The question is whether it will be tomorrow or 20 years from now. Unless your prediction also comes with a specific date it is useless.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#208

Post by jqpabc123 »

koonsolo wrote: post #206
jqpabc123 wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tether is part of the fiat system, not cryptocurrency. LOL! Tether has no role in the fiat system other than it's fictitious claims of relative value.

As long as they have >1% backed by cash, they are doing better than any fractional reserve bank ;p.

"Better" for themselves --- no doubt. "Better" for others --- no way.

To do "better", submit to an audit to show their cash backing. Instead they claim 100% backed by "something" that is not even clearly defined and has changed over time. And the exchanges play along and collude to keep the "market" price at $1USD.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#209

Post by graeme »

atatatat wrote: post #187
graeme wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are going to flash their wallet addresses at bars or at business meetings? We already have strong social taboos about flashing bank accounts. The whole point of status good is they convey wealth rather than tactlessly showing a total.

You've never seen where these brags occur? See if this feels familiar: Paris Hilton buys NFT of Hello Kitty! creator's DNA, says "crypto is the future"

The fancy watch market is much much broader than celebrities

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#210

Post by graeme »

altrum wrote: post #158
graeme wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But you’d get twitter verification. Or will twitter only recognize one chain for NFTs? How do you handle someone minting multiple nfts of the same image on different chains?

Twitter, if they build their verification correctly, should determine NFT's sovereignty via the smart contracts, not the chains. Thus, CryptoPunks will only exist on one chain & one smart contract.

But what stops someone from minting the same jpegs elsewhere? Possible there is some mechanism I’m unaware of
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