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Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#201

Post by miltondts »

Isinlor wrote: post #125
no_wizard wrote: post #8

Perhaps not entire civilization collapse, pending nuclear arsenals unleashed, but I think we are edging ever closer to massive social upheaval, what shape of this I am unsure about. To quote an adjacent article that was mentioned in this one: How Western Civilization Could Collapse > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the e…

The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago, and almost unimaginably better than it was 200 years ago. The worst 10% today do about as well as majority of West was doing back then. And the condition of the poor is improving rapidly. The places were it is not true, it is due to wars. But well, this is perspective of a Polish person. My country lost 25% of the population during wars w…

> The world is better off today in basically every way than it was 100 years ago

This is orthogonal as to whether a collapse is around the corner or not. If you look at the science in the IPCC report, combine with the inability to hit every single emissions target defined in every single climate treaty. It seems civilization collapse is on the table.

Also:

We probably are already at 2C locked in: https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-26...

Billions of refugees by 2100: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02648...

Etc.

If we don't drastically reduce emissions in the next decades, it seems very probable that this global civilization will end. Which might not be a bad thing in the long run, but in the short term it will cause a lot of suffering.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#202

Post by bryanlarsen »

ardit33 wrote: post #169
thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To steel-man parent's post, usually it's not that civilization per se collapses, the collapse is better characterized as a loss of state capacity. The important distinction being - technology wasn't lost. This framing is also relevant to present-day conversations. Claiming that our civilization is collapsing makes people eyes roll. Claim that we're losing state capacity is a message people are more receptive to.

what does collapse look at you? People dying in mass? To many, civilization collapse means the collapse of advanced 'civic' functions, from trade, to order, to normal civic functions (regulations, laws and order, registrations/admmin functions, coinage etc). It is replaced by a completely archaic/primitive way of living, with petty kindoms, local warlords, and more. Also, in parts of europe, whole populations got rav…

The Roman civilization in Europe may have collapsed but there is a huge difference between saying that "a civilization" collapsed and that "civilization" collapsed.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#203

Post by doubletgl »

voidfunc wrote: post #106
runarberg wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I am a software engineer in America (although from Europe originally). And to answer your other question, the downfall of America might favor me personally if it would be replaced with international solidarity of workers (as I am a worker my self). However my personal wealth is not my aspiration. Or as Mr. Spock once said: “The needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few” . If I am one of the few, who’s bene…

Alright there Comrade... lets hope your vision for the future never becomes a reality. Here's the real rub, there's many of us who would also fight to preserve the status quo or something close to it. You think many (most?) HN'ers with their 150K+ jobs want to live either individually or with their families at a much worse quality of life so some folks an ocean or two away can be a little better off? Big doubt.

The status quo, globally, is inequality and suffering for many. What a pathetic way of thinking that this must be defended with violence. It's unthinkable for you that this could be balanced out a bit more?

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#204

Post by runarberg »

grecy wrote: post #46
mikewarot wrote: post #6

Of course we are, this too shall pass. There is a constant struggle to keep things afloat, people seem to forget that at times, especially the rent seeking class who place little to no value on infrastructure, both physical and societal. If we get another FDR style reset, things should be good for a generation or two, if not... the horrors of history will rhyme once again. Edit/Update: The New Deal provided a social…

> this too shall pass As long as the world remains human habitable, I agree with you. If even 10% of the landmass where humans currently live becomes uninhabitable due to the impacts of climate change like flood, heat, drought, stable society as we've know for ~50 years has little chance. Hundreds of millions of people will have no place to live, no food, and no water. The only possible outcome would be immense uphea…

There is another possibility: Governments lift their hostile immigration policies, and grant refugees a place in their society. Sure there will be tension, but a major upheaval and wars can absolutely be avoided if governments act humanely.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#205

Post by wyager »

esarbe wrote: post #190
wyager wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote you inlined strikes me as total nonsense. First, there is no local mechanism by which having too small of a fraction of the total wealth that exists everywhere will cause a group to “crash”. Groups “crash” (assuming a sane interpretation of that word) usually due to local effects, like not having enough money to buy food, and not because they’re poor compared to someone else somewhere else. Obviously relati…

No, the crash will come from a total systemic collapse, caused by the ecosystem destruction we are wrecking. Climate change by greenhouse gas emission is just the cherry on top. The knife to the eye, so to speak. Since the middle of the 20th century, we've lost about 75% of biomass and roundabout the same in biodiversity. Our biological support systems are collapsing all around us. System shaped by natural selection…

> Since the middle of the 20th century, we've lost about 75% of biomass

This is clearly an absurd claim. Did you mean to qualify this somehow, like “non-livestock mammalian biomass”? That would still be incorrect, but at least might not be off by orders of magnitude.

> Water is beginning to get critically scarce

Not really. Even desalination is cheap enough at this point (on the order of 1kL/$, last I checked) that we’d be fine with modest cost increases.

> But now the damage has become so big that even nature's resilience cannot cope with it anymore

What exactly are you predicting here? This sounds very apocalyptic but doesn’t match any plausible model I’m aware of for ecological failure modes.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#207

Post by FiggyPudding »

nebula8804 wrote: post #110
dQw4w9WgXcQ wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea that's not a conspiracy theory at all. CCP/Russia most definitely have heavily targeted campaigns to sow disunity via the whole "USA is a dumpster fire" and "we're so divided" nonsense all over social media sites like FB/Twitter and Reddit. Of course Reddit being Reddit and so forth you get regular Americans gobbling it up and amplifying. Even worse when late-night hosts with big audiences do it. The strength of…

I hear this line of reasoning constantly from people who have had the system work for them. What they don't realize is that there is a huge portion of this country where the system is not working and thats where this discontent is coming from. Their misinformation campaigns wouldn't work if there weren't real core issues with the society. The internet has empowered a generation the sees whats behind the curtain. AOC…

Millennials also have high speed internet, smartphones, and video games to tune out local life that previous generations lacked.

Did previous generations have the same regulations in place that cause companies to restrict employment in crappy jobs to less than 40 hours a week so you need to move between job sites or work unsteady 'gig' jobs on the side? To avoid some mandatory benefits?

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#208

Post by esarbe »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #200
esarbe wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash will come from a total systemic collapse, caused by the ecosystem destruction we are wrecking. Climate change by greenhouse gas emission is just the cherry on top. The knife to the eye, so to speak. Since the middle of the 20th century, we've lost about 75% of biomass and roundabout the same in biodiversity. Our biological support systems are collapsing all around us. System shaped by natural selection…

If the ecosystem and climate collapsed, us rich folk could live in air conditioned houses powered by solar or nuclear power, eat food grown in green houses and drink desalinated water. It would be a truly miserable experience, but it doesn't necessarily mean the end of civilization. The wars started by those who no longer can afford food might end civilization, but that's not assured either.

> If the ecosystem and climate collapsed, us rich folk could live in air conditioned houses powered by solar or nuclear power, eat food grown in green houses and drink desalinated water.

Eh, no. We don't have the infrastructure to live in air conditioned houses powered by solar or nuclear power. Both solar and nuclear only can power a fraction of houses. And if you need additional power to grow food that fraction gets ever smaller.

For both nuclear and a solar power you need an extensive, global infrastructure that will require raw materials (nuclear; fuel, solar; finished products) from all over the world. Good luck trying to acquire enough uranium from all over the world when all is going to shits. Who do you think exactly is going to do the extraction?

So, I guess we'll all die, rich and poor.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#209

Post by esarbe »

thwor234234 wrote: post #25

I don't think we appreciate the difficulties of a post-Peak-oil world. For the latter part of the past-decade Hubbert's theory was rubbished because of new supplies from fracking and tar-sands, but the basic hypothesis: that there is a finite supply of cheap oil remains. There is little doubt that this resource will run out soon, putting an end to cheap transport, cheap agri (fertilizers, mechanization), and pretty m…

Nah. Running out of oil would just end our way of life.

Climate change and our predatory exploitation of natural resources on the other way will end our lives.

We've already lost more than 70% of biomass and roundabout the same number in biodiversity. Since the 1970. This trend shows no sign of stopping.

Seriously; we're wrecking our own life support system. Systems evolved under the constrains of natural selection are incredible resilient. But we've been pushing it very, very, very hard for the last 250 years and we've pushed it very close to the cliff.

Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? (2019)

#210

Post by esarbe »

wyager wrote: post #205
esarbe wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash will come from a total systemic collapse, caused by the ecosystem destruction we are wrecking. Climate change by greenhouse gas emission is just the cherry on top. The knife to the eye, so to speak. Since the middle of the 20th century, we've lost about 75% of biomass and roundabout the same in biodiversity. Our biological support systems are collapsing all around us. System shaped by natural selection…

> Since the middle of the 20th century, we've lost about 75% of biomass This is clearly an absurd claim. Did you mean to qualify this somehow, like “non-livestock mammalian biomass”? That would still be incorrect, but at least might not be off by orders of magnitude. > Water is beginning to get critically scarce Not really. Even desalination is cheap enough at this point (on the order of 1kL/$, last I checked) that w…

> Did you mean to qualify this somehow, like “non-livestock mammalian biomass”? That would still be incorrect, but at least might not be off by orders of magnitude.

Not necessary. The loss in biomass in fish[0][1] and insects[2][3] and tropical rainforests[4] can account for that. Birds have also taken a deep dive[6]. The most visible I think it is for fish. There alone we've lost an approximate 80% since the 1950ies. Imagine that. 80% of fish biomass, just gone. Similar for insects. German nature reserves have seen a decline of insect population by 75%. Really; non-livestock mammalian biomass is the least of our problems.

> Not really. Even desalination is cheap enough at this point (on the order of 1kL/$, last I checked) that we’d be fine with modest cost increases.

That only covers populations near bodies of water. Ironically these are the most vulnerable to climate change and threatened by the rising sea level. And while it might be possible to build and maintain the desalination infrastructure for the 9M people in Israel, good look trying the same thing in countries like India[8] or Balgladesh[8a]?

Water crises have been ranked in the top five of the World Economic Forum's Global Risks by Impact list nearly every year since 2012[9].

A quarter of the world's population faces severe water shortage[10]. Are you going to provide water to 3 Billion people using desalination plants? In many of these places, even water treatment plants are too expensive to operate. What are you going to power these plants with? Coal? We don't even have a plan to migrate the already existing energy infrastructure to renewables.

> What exactly are you predicting here? This sounds very apocalyptic but doesn’t match any plausible model I’m aware of for ecological failure modes

Here's a helpful link[11].

The norther African coast of the Mediterranean used to be woodland. The continued depletion and over exploitation of the has led to it being the arid region it is today [12]. Now imagine that, but on a global scale. Because the last 250 years have been harsh for our ecosystem and it's now as threadbare as it can be. Ecosystem fragmentation is already a dire issue. The strings in the web are breaking, one by one [13].

[0] https://www.aaas.org/news/researcher-reports-stunning-losses...

[1] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266684781_A_century...

[2] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_in_insect_populations

[4] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326657472_Loss_of_b...

[5] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210225082525.h...

[6] https://abcbirds.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bird-Decline...

[7] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309200743_Defaunati...

[8] https://qz.com/india/1114843/chinas-grand-plan-for-the-brahm...

[8a] https://undark.org/2021/08/04/the-water-crisis-in-climate-vu...

[9] http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_202...

[10] https://news.trust.org/item/20200902202142-ku0o2

[11] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_collapse

[12] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman...

[13] https://theecologist.org/2012/feb/27/humanity-has-already-ha...

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