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Where has all the productivity gone?

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Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#201

Post by lkrubner »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #185
lkrubner wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So here is a link that is a few years earlier than the one I want, but which covers the productivity numbers in the same way: https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/reagan-mythbust... But that was written in 2009, before it was clear that productivity slowed again after 2005. In a later post, Krugman analyzed the higher productivity of 1995 to 2005 and shows much of it was simply big box stores and HFT. In gene…

I can't load that page for some reason, and although I don't really like Krugman and certainly if it just comes from a blog with his opinion and vague handwaving in it I don't think it's worth much. But that surprises me that he would have changed his tune so quickly after being famously against HFT, e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/03/opinion/03krugman.html > It’s hard to imagine a better illustration than high…

"he would have changed his tune so quickly after being famously against HFT"

He was still against HFT, that was part of his point. He was saying that even some of the surge of 1995-2005 might have been an illusion, because it was "only" HFT. If you feel that HFT really does raise the USA standard of living, then of course you are free to view the surge of 1995-2005 as entirely real.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#202

Post by lkrubner »

throwawaylinux wrote: post #186
lkrubner wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“You're saying a productivity increase that amounted to around 20% across the entire workforce is mostly attributable to advances in HFT and logistics in the retail industry?” No one ever suggested that. It’s the excess productivity growth of 1995-2005 that is largely attributable to retail and what improvements there were in the productivity of trading financial instruments.

I'm not talking about the total increase of productivity, I'm talking about the roughly 20% it increased beyond where it would have been if the pre-95 trajectory had continued. I.e., the excess. It just doesn't seem like a plausible explanation. EDIT: going back and looking at the actual numbers rather than eyeballing it's more like 10-12% excess. That's across the entire economy of course, so it would still be a mas…

I have a research assistant I hire to deal with FRED for me, since it is really its own specialty, and at some point we will get to the productivity numbers, but I'm not going to engage them simply for a comment on Hacker News. I probably should not be writing on Hacker News, I keep thinking that I should focus my efforts elsewhere. But eventually I'll have more complete work to share with you and the world. Feel free to follow my blog, you'll see an announcement at some point in the next 6 months.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#203

Post by Ma8ee »

op00to wrote: post #111
coldtea wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cheap clothes, cheap flights, cheap music, movies, cheap food, longer life expectancy, bigger homes with smaller household sizes, cheap washing machines and various appliances, all with far fewer working hours, and far less household work while you're off-work. So, not much then. For the consumer devices, cheap = disposable, as opposed to consumer devices you bought and could use for decades. Likewise, cheap clothe…

You couldn’t be more wrong, or more dismissive. Ask a working single mother whether inexpensive, effective appliances are a significant productivity and quality of life enhancer.

I very much agree with you. I grew up without microwave oven or dishwasher. Neither of those are essential in any way, but claiming that those don’t provide great time savers for parents (single or not) with small children would be ridiculous.

I don’t remember where I saw the numbers, but in 1980 a microwave cost more than a months (average) salary. Today I can buy a good one for less than half a day’s earnings.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#204

Post by Ma8ee »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #126
op00to wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You couldn’t be more wrong, or more dismissive. Ask a working single mother whether inexpensive, effective appliances are a significant productivity and quality of life enhancer.

Wow-- I have never heard anyone say, "Bosh made my life easier" And it reminds me I'm on my second pump for a E12 error. (After tossing too many Bosh appliances, I finally got lucky repairing one. The guys on the internet helped.)

There’s nothing forcing you to use any electric appliances, with the possible exception the stove if you to make warm food and don’t have access to a wood stove. Try a week washing the dishes by hand, doing your laundry in the sink or in the bathtub. I’m sure you’ll be a bit embarrassed about your above comment after that.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#205

Post by mewpmewp2 »

colinmhayes wrote: post #60
mewpmewp2 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And was what TikTok did positive impact?

You don't think bringing people joy is a positive impact?

It's debatable. Tiktok like other social media could be actually causing harm by a) being addictive, b) causing mental health issues, c) ruining your brain reward system, d) giving you adhd, possibly.

Once you start scrolling there, it is very difficult to stop, and I have tried it, but I don't think at least for me, it would add any actual value to my life even if I can't stop myself from using the app.

There's other entertainment, that I would think is more healthy, meaningful and can improve you as a person, so any time spent on Tiktok, I think is straying away from that other type of media.

So Tiktok definitely has impact, but I don't see how this impact is more positive as compared to say reading books or similar, which could potentially also provide infinite entertainment, but I also improve your brain

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#206

Post by mewpmewp2 »

colinmhayes wrote: post #105
gilmore606 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were those people not being brought joy before TikTok? Did the amount of joy in the world increase? Does it increase with every new frivolous app? If so eventually we will be overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive, but that does not seem to be the trend.

Yes TikTok increases the joy its users experienced, otherwise they would still be doing what they were doing before. I do think people are much happier than they were 20 or even 10 years ago, largely thanks to the increased joy brought by better apps. Can that continue until people are "overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive"? No clue, doesn't seem likely, but it's certainly possible.

Then what's with all the "social media causing depression" we hear all the time, and there also being studies highlighting that, not to mention countless anecdotal stories.

E.g this study: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/216770261772337...

Suicide rates increasing because of too much bliss?

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#207

Post by blackpowder12 »

N00bN00b wrote: post #130
sprafa wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

another way to look at it is that cargo cult thinking is the default mode for human thinking. This is something I've noticed recently and increasingly believe to be true. The vast majority of people do NOT take the time to build an opinion from weighing multiple sources of information, looking for counter arguments etc. Cargo cult is the default mode for a civilization.

That has to be true, right? There's just way too much to understand and it's impossible to come up with an absolute ordering of importance. At some point you have to delegate huge chunks of your understanding. And it works 9 out of 10 times. It's just that one time that's a problem, but it's still probably the most optimal strategy for nearly everyone.

There's a difference between knowing you don't understand something and thinking that you do - that's the difference between cargo cult thinking vs actual thinking.

Cargo cults are antivaxx, anti-climate change. Things that are obviously not true, but that many people want to believe so they do. The issue is that this kind of thinking is actually default, which I've grown to understand recently. IE many people who are in favor of good things don't really have a deep understanding of why that is - they've just adopted an opinion that sounds good to them. This is particularly pronounced in ie economics and politics, where understanding is extremely shallow.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#208

Post by forcry »

Godel_unicode wrote: post #198
forcry wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why will 5G be widely adopted? I think we should reject 5G as a community. Not because any danger of radiation. But I think people should be able to say "This is enough", and stop ourselves to be forced to think "We need moar!", thus put some block to this progress for the sake of progress..

Yeah, and what's with these mechanised looms, hand-operated is fine.

>hand-operated is fine...

May be it was.

You make a poor argument, because resources are limited, and "progress" will have to wait at some point. Human race can either opt into slower progress to match the available resources, or be selected out.

Indiscriminate growth is a hallmark of cancerous things. You can detect it, cut it out and attempt to survive, or surely die with it.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#209

Post by perl4ever »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #176
perl4ever wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The goal is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In order to do that, it has to be done in a way that the masses will not revolt and eliminate the political leaders who want to prevent climate change. I think that your suggestion, while I guess it's mainstream and basically what's already being done in most places, is guaranteed to fail in both respects. If we tax one thing and subsidize another, without any linkage t…

I see the fundamental problem is dependence on existing capital assets that emit CO2. Like gasoline and diesel cars and trucks. Focusing that seems reasonable that you a) don't want people to buy new ones. 2) want to expedite the retirement of current ones. Putting an excise tax on new fossil fueled cars would discourage manufacture and sales. Using the revenue to help working class people retire and replace their ol…

>I see the fundamental problem is dependence on existing capital assets that emit CO2

I don't think you're wrong, but an opinion like you're expressing doesn't say what, who, how it should be done. It doesn't set a goal that can be achieved, and it doesn't imply that success would solve the problem of reducing global CO2 levels.

Have you ever had a project manager tell you how to write code?

>carbon taxes which punish working class people

That's why the revenue needs to be sent right back to the people in equal amounts.

If that isn't good enough, it doesn't mean carbon taxes are less necessary. You haven't stated why it won't work or is not necessary in a way that I can understand yet.

Doing other things seems to me like the ultimate example of "looking for your keys under the streetlight even though you dropped them in the dark".

Or, it's like the joke "we must do something; this is something, therefore we must do it".

Building things produces CO2. People will argue endlessly about how much. It's impossible for everyone to agree on the facts, but the quantity matters.

We don't want any particular activity or product to be generated, we want less CO2. If we reward specific things that are associated currently with less CO2 but don't logically entail it, it will be a very short time until people optimize those goals by producing more CO2.

Re: Where has all the productivity gone?

#210

Post by rfrey »

perl4ever wrote: post #153
rfrey wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The notion of a carbon tax being revenue neutral is pretty widespread, in fact I think most carbon taxes are designed that way.

I'm unclear on the gap between the "notion" and the protests in France. The Wikipedia page ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_fee_and_dividend ) is kind of inconsistent - it says that a revenue neutral tax is a "conservative" idea, then it has more about a "universal climate income" under "social justice". Widespread is not the same thing as generally accepted. I think I've been reading vaguely hostile stuff rece…

I think one of the reasons is that it is a market-based solution that allows companies to pollute as long as they are willing to pay for it. Many progressives prefer an approach of behaviour and lifestyle modifications.
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