its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years. the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive…
TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
In real life, people sometimes commit suicide in what's called "suicide by cop", they attack police so the police kill them. The idea that we or China can't have a commander in chief who commits suicide by war, or otherwise behaves irresponsibly and takes the rest of us with them, strikes me as a tad optimistic.
You could say the same for the US. What checks and balances are going to protect you from a mentally unstable, delusional president who lost an election months ago, is about to be removed from power, and just this morning decided to play a game of nuclear football? What evidence do you have that similar checks do not exist in China? It's also worth mentioning that any nuclear submarine commander in the UK can, at any…
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#203Is automotive industry all that EU cares about? What about IoT/robotics? The fact that TSMC want to build only their older fab here is really disappointing to me.
The EU has also supplied both weapons and technology that are currently threatening Taiwan: https://www.businessinsider.com/european-companies-are-suppl... France alone was the #2 supplier from 2015-2019: https://euro-sd.com/2020/03/news/16688/sipri-biggest-arms-ex... You really can't blame Taiwan for not rushing to put its most cutting edge expertise in the EU.
That's 2,5 x f35's ( without maintenance) which really is just peanuts.
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#204I've been thinking about what would happen if there's an actual military crisis between China and Taiwan. I wonder if the United States would allow (and aid with) unlimited immigration from Taiwan for educated specialists, in an attempt to capture/retain as much skills and knowledge as possible.
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#205Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
From the article, Taiwan's estimation of the U.S. talent base is rather low: '"TSMC chairman and founder Morris Chang warned last month of higher operating costs and a thin talent pool for the U.S. plans in a rare public speech attended by Wei and chairman Mark Liu. "In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers," Chang said. He warned that "short-ter…
> In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers What does this even mean? That US engineers expect benefits and work-life balance?
1) Students in Taiwan score highly on PISA and other ranking of math and science skills. Ie, 4th for Math (vs the USA at 38th or so). And engineering is extremely popular as a major. So you've got a strong supply of relatively competent folks.
2) A pretty strong tracking system - 9th grade testing for example means a lot more in Taiwan than in the US which has moved away from tracking efforts as discriminatory. Note also that starting at 16 (ie, high school) folks are already specializing a lot more vocationally etc.
3) Note that some of what is taken for granted in a public high school (fights / theft / violence / disruption) would be completely out of bounds in high school in Taiwan. A legacy of military rule was actually the presence of literal military in high schools - I hope that is long over but kind of a crazy situation - people forget how recent democracy is there and plenty of bad things about having military on campus. School uniforms everywhere (not sure if required but very common)
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#207its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years. the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive…
President (or Emperor-for-life?) Xi firmly believes in expansionism - though he rephrases this as redressal of past grievances and righting of past wrongs. He has clearly said multiple times that Taiwan is intrinsically part of China and no one can change this. He has also un-equivocally stated that the use of force will not be ruled out.
The threat of China fully annexing Taiwan is a real and present danger today. It doesn't need to be done by open military invasion though. Just by consistently applying pressure over a period of time until the government and citizenry is completely dominated by the CCP. Individuals who protest are frequently 'disappeared'.
When individuals can be eliminated and families suppressed and the elected government helpless to assist, the whole nation eventually kneels to the conqueror. Death by a Thousand Cuts is a valid strategy. No shots need be fired.
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#208Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interestingly this came as a loss to Washington, where there is already a significant fab owned by TSMC called WaferTech. Their facility is on the WA side of the Portland suburbs. Many felt WA was in the running because of the talent already there. This caused concerns that the future of the WaferTech fab facility is dimmer than before, since it probably makes less sense to pump billions more into it in the future.
Also surprising is that TSMC was recently hit by water shortages due to a drought in Taiwan. Arizona isn't exactly drought resistant, yet they built there instead of rainy Washington.
The takeaways: - Fab companies have invested in a lot of water reclamation and recycling regardless of location, as there's a lot of metals and other chemicals that need to be filtered out. (Asianometry goes over this more here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=785Uzi1mGAA ) - Intel claims Arizona's water usage has stayed level in the area as industrial use has replaced agricultural, which uses less.
I'm sure there's a cost-benefit play here, where the tax and other incentives outweigh the increased costs of water reclamation.
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#209Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward. If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors. High hopes but low expectati…
Why China? Most of the major chip fabs aren't made in China. They're mostly made in Taiwan, South Korea and the US. Unless we're strictly talking about TSMC, which does have 2/18 fabs in China.
China’s stance on Taiwan is clear[1] but given Taiwan doesn’t agree, it has remained independent despite what China says. The same was true for Hong Kong until recently, however, so concerns remain.
The US is waking up to realizing that they have a heavy reliance on China for civilian goods and a slight to moderate risk that it might be disrupted or used against them in future.
The worry I suppose is that it might be easier for supply chain-based attacks to weaken US defences, not that we’ve seen anything like this in practice yet due to how easy it is to exploit existing software bugs, for example.
1. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tens...
Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter
#210its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years. the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive…
China is more able and likely to 'take over Taiwan' since probably any point in history. It's a stated strategic objective and there's no reason to think it won't happen.