Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress • Hacker News Board

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#201

Post by SilasX » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:23 PM UTC

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

>Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day.

Stupid question: if you were expecting an upswing in a stock, wouldn't you get the most returns from an out of the money option? For a deep ITM you're paying the same as the underlying stock plus a tiny premium -- you might as well just buy the stock.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#202

Post by infinite8s » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:25 PM UTC

paulryanrogers wrote: post #170

smt88 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's easy to rephrase this as follows: People should not be able to make bets on matters over which they secretly control the outcome. That means any federal official should have their investments behind a blind trust of some sort, no exceptions.

Isn't this already an illegal conflict of interest? Are federal representatives immune?

Congress excluded itself from insider-trading laws. Convenient, eh?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#203

Post by somethoughts » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:26 PM UTC

lend000 wrote: post #183

psychlops wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just require them to announce their trades publicly 24 hours in advance. And let them manage their own finances. All these shenanigan's would disappear.

Why should they be held under less scrutiny than CEO's? They typically have to clear their stock sales with the SEC months in advance.

That's true too! Finance sites like Marketwatch and Yahoo have insider transaction logs for each company when you search their ticker symbol [1]. There should be a tab to view "US office holder and their immediate relatives" transaction log page as well listed for each ticker.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/insider-transactions/

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#204

Post by ABeeSea » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:26 PM UTC

SilasX wrote: post #201

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

>Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. Stupid question: if you were expecting an upswing in a stock, wouldn't you get the most returns from an out of the money option? For a deep ITM you're paying the same as the underlying stock plus a tiny premium -- you might as well just buy the stock.

A large swing increases the IV which increases the premium (since the stock is now more likely to swing back down). Also decreases the risk in case the trade moves against you.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#205

Post by jfk13 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:26 PM UTC

ABeeSea wrote: post #172

seriousquestion wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are confused about this because Pelosi rejected the stimulus in October, prior to the election. She didn't accept until December, post election. Some democrats were urging her to accept it in October: https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1315078896853843970

That’s not what the business insider linked in the tweet says. It says she described the White House plan as “insufficient” meaning there wasn’t enough stimulus in it. How can criticizing a bill for not having enough stimulus mean you are against stimulus? The House had passed the HEROES act for additional stimulus in May 2020. The Republican senate refused to even put it up for a vote. She was always for passing of…

> the HEROES act

Does anyone else cringe at this American obsession with naming acts of congress so as to create "inspirational" acronyms?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#206

Post by zucked » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:27 PM UTC

wpietri wrote: post #107

sethammons wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my naive solution: politicians become monks. They go without. They are provided modest housing and budgets. I'm sure there are zounds of issues with it, but I like to imagine servant leaders who go without to do more for the communities they serve.

I'd be happy with that, but perhaps an easier solution is to make them moderately wealthy. Pay them a top 5% salary with a guaranteed pension for life, plus mandatory open finances for life. Then there's much less incentive to resort to graft.

I've always wondered about this. These are people who we elect to do a job - one that we expect and need them to do well. I wonder what would happen if their base salary was something higher than current - perhaps $300k. They receive the maximum healthcare coverages available to the majority of Americans. Pension is set at $100k/year at retirement, no strings attached.

BUT - In exchange, you'd have to agree to some very restrictive governance while in office. Example:

- No trading of specific investment vehicles, you may invest a maximum of ($x) per year in the following options (ETF, Treasuries, etc.). This goes for any immediate family members.

- Congressperson's income can only consist of the US Government salaries. Any income from previous book deals, consulting, etc, must go into a blind trust that can only invest in the aforementioned investment options.

I wonder if that is enough of an incentive to still attract sharp minds while perhaps incentivizing them to work more for the people and less for themselves.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#207

Post by Ansil849 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:28 PM UTC

Conflicts of interest with politicians are unfortunately nothing new. Remember several years ago when Pelosi's husband owned Visa stock, while Pelosi was involved in legislation that - had it gone forward, which it did not - would adversely impact Visa?

https://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67593_Page2.html

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#208

Post by frankfrankfrank » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:28 PM UTC

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Re. the Gottheimer trading; if one is to believe the reports of his net worth based on public records [1][2], he supposedly almost tripled his wealth in just one year. That seems quite unusual.

The fact that he appears to trade mostly $MSFT while also being a former MSFT Executive and seems to be extremely accurate in his options trading of that $MSFT, only really adds to the extreme suspiciousness.

Is there no entity that even just tries to keep tabs on or possibly investigates these people, let alone charge them with crimes where appropriate? It seems that where there is smoke … and fire … there may actually be fire.

[1] https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/07/the-richest-new-jersey-m...

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/richest-member-congress-state...

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#209

Post by bosie » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:29 PM UTC

wpietri wrote: post #107

sethammons wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my naive solution: politicians become monks. They go without. They are provided modest housing and budgets. I'm sure there are zounds of issues with it, but I like to imagine servant leaders who go without to do more for the communities they serve.

I'd be happy with that, but perhaps an easier solution is to make them moderately wealthy. Pay them a top 5% salary with a guaranteed pension for life, plus mandatory open finances for life. Then there's much less incentive to resort to graft.

you sure you meant top 5%? US congress is already easily in the top 5% of salaries

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#210

Post by itsoktocry » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:29 PM UTC

mattferderer wrote: post #56

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

I would like more oversight here but I don't know if these are great examples. I do (without evidence) believe a lot of these people use insider information. Pelosi's husband has been very bullish for a long time on Tesla, Apple & tech in general I do believe. Gottheimer did what I think is a Bull Call spread which means in February, after a crazy run up in market prices in January, he bet that MSFT would go up a lit…

>Pelosi's husband has been very bullish for a long time on Tesla, Apple & tech in general I do believe.

I'm curious where you are reading about Paul Pelosi's stock picks. Regardless, so what? He has no business owning and/or trading shares of companies the person he shares a bed with has influence over.