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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#201

Post by HillRat »

johnnyapol wrote: post #190
ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

I'm not saying your calculus is wrong but this does make an assumption that all clots are created equal and I don't believe that is the case. The specific issue being observed is "cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST)" in combination with "low levels of blood platelets (thrombocytopenia)" per the Joint CDC and FDA statement (1). Low blood platelets means anti-clotting treatments can pose a substantial bleeding incr…

And we know adenoviruses interfere with the coagulation cascade through FX binding, so it’s well worth taking a pause and taking a closer look into what’s going on. With two well-tolerated and safe mRNA vaccines in the market, we can afford — to a degree! — to put Ad-based vaccines through additional scrutiny, especially since they’re likely to be the primary vaccine type on a global level.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#202

Post by ravedave5 »

jonplackett wrote: post #28
ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

There's lots of other things to compare it to as well. It's a roughly 1 in a million chance of dying - which is called a Micromort https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort We 'spend' about one micromort of risk per day of being alive. Or you can spend one walking for 6 hours, or driving 250 miles (or 6 miles on a motorbike) I just made a website to show all the other stuff we do all the time without worrying with the…

Ok I really need your stat on canoeing. "That’s much less risky than going canoeing "

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#203

Post by mxcrossb »

raverbashing wrote: post #41
ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

Paraphrasing one famous science commenter, we're playing Pandemic Trolley Problem and running over hundreds of people because we're not sure if the other path has one or two persons. It's ridiculous. Or as per someone that actually knows statistics: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381925025964515330

Only if you assume that utilitarianism is the answer to the Trolley Problem

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#204

Post by endisneigh »

stickfigure wrote: post #194
endisneigh wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point isn't to say that 1 in a million die of COVID, my point is that psychologically the decision makes sense.

We don't need to have abstract philosophical conversations about hypothetical numbers. We know the real ones.

Again, that is not my point to begin with. My point is that it makes sense to pause given the poor optics of the clotting/dying until we investigate.

If the article was saying J&J was permanently discontinued perhaps I'd agree with you.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#205

Post by lovedswain »

ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

Put another way, you're about 38 times more likely to develop a blood clot than win the UK's national lottery.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#206

Post by ravenstine »

ed_balls wrote: post #135
ravenstine wrote: post #123

I'm trying to understand why this isn't ridiculous, and I'm not sure what that reason could be. The disease left to its own accord has the potential to kill millions (someone please correct me on this). Why would we pause a vaccine because 6 people in 7 million got blood clots? Why would we do that and risk fueling anti-vaccine viewpoints? I'm baffled, but perhaps I'm a fool.

I suppose they don't know what is the cause and what's gonna happen in the future(6 now, 10 000 in a few years). The communication that public gets is outrageously bad.

Isn't that as true, if not greater, for the mRNA based vaccines, despite them not having that observed side effect? For all we know, everyone's butts might fall off because of them in the future. (yes, I'm being somewhat facetious)

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#207

Post by lisper »

_ea1k wrote: post #181
lisper wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the rate of vaccination is still supply-limited at the moment. If everyone who would have received the J&J vaccine could get a safer alternative in the same time frame this might make sense. But they can't, so it doesn't. Do the math. It is all but certain that more people will die as a result of this pause than without it, even if you assume a worst-case clotting risk scenario under the current data.

I only know my corner of the globe well. In this area, vaccine appointments are pretty easy to get and everyone 16+ is eligible. It certainly looks like any delay caused by this would be minimal. Maybe other parts of the country are different.

What part of the country are you in? And what counts as "pretty easy to get"? In California, the most populous state, people under 50 are not generally even eligible to try to get an appointment for another two days. I don't know how it is in other states, but I don't think this is unusual.

That the vaccination rate is supply-limited is manifest in the fact that less than a third of the U.S. population has been vaccinated at all.

Yes, there are places where there are vaccine surpluses, but this is not because the supply isn't the limiting factor. It's because in some rural areas there are large numbers of vaccine denialists who are choosing to forego the vaccine altogether. That leaves some localized surpluses. But overall supply is still the limiting factor, and it will continue to be until everyone who wants a vaccine can get one without having to wait.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#208

Post by endisneigh »

ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

Why do people keep posting this nonsense?

Who cares how many clots birth controls produce? What matters is the outcome compared to the thing birth controls prevent - pregnancy.

Do you get more blood clots from being pregnant or from being on the pill? It's order of magnitudes more from being pregnant, therefore if you're sexually active it's safer to be on the pill compared to not.

How is this the top post? People have no knowledge of basic Bayesian statistics.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#209

Post by DennisP »

ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

People keep saying this will add to vaccine hesitancy but I'm not convinced. The vaccine-hesitant are already skeptical of authorities and aren't going to be especially reassured just because US agencies say it's fine, when it's already hit the news that European agencies have halted J&J.

Seeing US agencies halting J&J while continuing the other vaccines could even be reassuring. It shows that US agencies really are pretty cautious, and are willing to halt vaccines that show signs of problems.

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