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The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com

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Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#201

Post by gfrangakis »

mattxvrsmith wrote: post #192

Some people want Bitcoin to fail so much that they‘ll believe in literal conspiracy theories if it supports their priors. A legitimate market for hard money is impossible for these people to believe, it must be fraud.

On the other hand, some people want Bitcoin to succeed so much - or rather want the price of Bitcoin to succeed because they speculate on it - that they'll engineer some fraudulent schemes in a relatively unregulated market to support their bank accounts.

I think it's likely a bit of both, but you can't deny there is something unsavory going on with Tether and these offshore exchanges

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#202

Post by dgellow »

soneca wrote: post #126
Animats wrote: post #119

Today, January 15th is the court-ordered disclosure date for Tether. So soon we should know how big the Tether bubble is. Clearly, it's time to get out of USDT. There's no upside potential, and there's a big downside potential.

But there will be no news for some time until the attorney general’s office review all the delivered documents right? Or should there be relevant news in the next few days already?

We don’t know yet

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#203

Post by H8crilA »

nivenkos wrote: post #64
H8crilA wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not TSLA/gold? That proves there is inflation! Or I know, BTC/USD, that clearly proves there's lots inflation and look at that bitcoin price is perfectly correlated with it! (I am only half-joking here, the point is that broad inflation is much much more important than some bull market in this or that asset class) On a more serious note a lot of commodities are looking really bullish, including some foodstuffs, a…

Real estate inflation is the real driver behind practical inflation all over the world though. Real estate bubble -> High deposits for house purchases -> High rents -> Effective inflation Most governments don't include real estate (or even rent payments) in their inflation calculations to keep it artificially low.

> Most governments don't include real estate (or even rent payments) in their inflation calculations to keep it artificially low.

Housing is > 40% of the US CPI:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2019.pdf

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#204

Post by christiansakai »

ur-whale wrote: post #160
christiansakai wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a Bitcoin holder, but Ethereum. I zeroed all my Ethereum except the ones locked due to staking (32 ETH, but I bought them when they were $600) because of these Tether news lately. I will wait for more clarity before jumping back in. It is kinda sad that in this technology there are so many frauds like that.

>I will wait for more clarity before jumping back in. Probably wise given how correlated ETH and BTC prices are. >It is kinda sad that in this technology there are so many frauds like that. It is, but it is also unavoidable. As the author correctly points at towards the end, many of the properties of cryptos (high liquidity, non-reversible, pseudo-anonymous), while very useful to legitimate users, are a wet dream for…

Indeed. It is part of the game I guess.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#205

Post by thorwasdfasdf »

Ok, for everyone here worried about the value of their BTC, please consider this. At the end of the day, all that really matters is what percentage of BTC bought was from HODLERS. If 80% of all BTC bought was from HODLERS, it means the market cap of BTC can NOT drop anymore than 20%, at the very maximum drop, and since the number of BTC coins in existance is constant, it means the drop in value of BTC is at MOST 20%.

The last bitcoin bubble was mostly bought up by speculators who eventually sell very quickly, which what allowed the price drop to occur so much because most BTC holders were not hodlers and most were just speculators.

You can sidestep all the concerns about Tether and USDT and conversion, etc. Just figure out what percentage of BTC is bought by HODLERS or get some kind of estimate, and that will tell you your downside risk.

I for one, am long BTC, because I know this time around a much higher percentage of BTC was bought by HODLRs and there's a whole lot more coming in 2021.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#206

Post by dgellow »

cryptoanonymous wrote: post #117

Hi, I'm the author. Using a throwaway for all the obvious reasons. I'll try to dive into this thread over the next few hours to answer any questions folks may have about this. Please feel free to ask.

My personal prediction (shasum256): fd559af88adde4082122c16e6b77356a90d2a367600f43acbdd6615c3dc4cc28

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#207

Post by owenversteeg »

thorwasdfasdf wrote: post #205

Ok, for everyone here worried about the value of their BTC, please consider this. At the end of the day, all that really matters is what percentage of BTC bought was from HODLERS. If 80% of all BTC bought was from HODLERS, it means the market cap of BTC can NOT drop anymore than 20%, at the very maximum drop, and since the number of BTC coins in existance is constant, it means the drop in value of BTC is at MOST 20%.…

Sorry, but this comment is wrong on every level.

First: that is very much not how prices work. If everyone else stayed on the sidelines and did not sell or buy any Bitcoin, the price could be set by two people - one buyer and one seller.

Second: you have no way to know who bought BTC. You can get a guess from various media, but you can never truly know. Large amounts of Bitcoin frequently change hands in entirely private transactions. Lots of volume is on shady exchanges, and of the volume on legitimate exchanges - what's to say that those are all "HODLERS"?

I have no idea what the price of Bitcoin will be in the future, but your comment is definitely not correct - downside risk is certainly not limited by the type of people who bought in.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#208

Post by azeirah »

piva00 wrote: post #95
ur-whale wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do your darndest to legally pay the least amount taxes possible and find every opportunity to change the system so taxes are lowered: you tax money will, in the vast majority of the cases, be wasted Stop feeding the beast. Starve it every opportunity you have.

I prefer to support Swedish's society and just pay my due taxes, thank you. The beast here is responsible for a lot of the quality of life we enjoy, public services included.

Very much the same here, I've been paying taxes on crypto for years now and I'm in the Netherlands.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#209

Post by TomSwirly »

qeternity wrote: post #118
mountainb wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People often don't understand the implications of an elastic monetary system that is also decentralized because of the way that the Fed and member banks are structured. There are things the Fed or the government could do to frogmarch devaluation (like, for example, encouraging banks to pay people to carry credit card balances through negative interest rate policy or encouraging no-doc/no-credit check loans of all kin…

People also don’t realize that moderate inflation is a good thing. You want a gentle inbuilt mechanism to encourage consumption. And we have good tools to combat inflation whereas we don’t really have any tools to combat deflation. There’s a reason nobody spends Bitcoin and it’s mostly not about fees or block size.

> You want a gentle inbuilt mechanism to encourage consumption.

This kills the planet.

Re: The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

#210

Post by azeirah »

leppr wrote: post #2

Related: Tether’s bank Deltec says it invests customer funds in Bitcoin https://www.deltecbank.com/2021/01/14/a-covid-year-in-review... https://www.coindesk.com/tethers-bank-says-it-invests-custom... https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1349873798078558209 The next weeks/months are going to be fascinating to watch, as US regulators and invested institutions fight to both regulate and protect their crypto investments. M…

The OP said that he got out 100% right? Why not get out with something along the lines of 96% of your portfolio if you made over 600% profit anyway?

Eh, I would never bet 100% of my investment in a market based on knowledge I obtained myself, there's no no noo way I can see the entire picture.

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