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Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

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Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#202
post #143
post #117

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Management rule of thumb: For every % you cut from the bottom, you lose from the top. Cut 10% of workforce, and 10% of your best people say "yes" to the next headhunter trying to poach them.

It's actually more complex than that, when a big company wants to reduce workforce they will fire the bottom and offer retirement packages to their oldest employees which are above or near retirement age, sometime as much as a full year of salary. The intuition is that older employees cost more and by cutting them you can reduce your payroll more significantly while doing what looks like smaller employee cuts from th…

I work (but not for much longer) for a tech company that has done an ER package twice (and is well known for layoffs). The result is that the company has a sort of corporate alzheimers. It knows the inventory of all the things it used to know, but doesn't actually seem able to recall anything. The trajectory and outlook are not good.

I don't think tech companies can afford this practice. So much knowledge resides in their senior talent, and the hard-won experience-based understanding and things gleaned through opportunistic exposure that they seem to voluntarily surrender.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#203

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Yea, I'm not sure what their plan is other than to keep trying to sell to institutions until everyone makes the switch to someone else. If they actually want to survive long term, there are two paths as I see it: A) Be legitimately better than AMD, this could include opening up the management engine, much higher performance chips at lower price points, or some sort of space magic utilizing their Altera acquisition. B…

They could give up on design and just try to be an American TSMC. There's a lot of interest in that from a national security perspective anyway.

With Intel's cashflow, they can do both without any difficulty. But yes, they should be the american TSMC.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#204

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Pat's a great guy and first class engineer, but I think it's just too late for him to turn Intel around at this point. The problems have become too entrenched. They needed someone like him at the helm 10 years ago. Apple's M1 shows that the world has passed Intel by. I wish him luck, though.

The same could have been said about AMD 7 years ago. Then Lisa Su came.

Don't forget Keller's contributions there. It was a much smaller operation so it was easier for a couple of people to change it. Intel, on the other hand, is a supertanker that's going to be very difficult to turn around in time.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#206

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Maybe. Apple has solved the chicken and egg problem regarding software compatibility by forcing everyone to move on to ARM in the near future. Microsoft will not abandon x64 though, so there are far less incentives to port things. Also Microsoft cares far more about compatibility (e.g. 32-bit software). That means means a lot of things will run under a Rosetta 2 like system (probably less efficient if you need to sup…

An ARM transition isn't a fait accompli just because Apple introduced M1 at the lower end of the Mac lineup. There's a huge lump of inertia there.

True, but Apple has been the harbinger for a LARGE number of advances in consumer computing adoption. Mouse/windows desktop interface? Apple. Font libraries? Apple. USB? Apple. Touch interfaces? Apple. Modern smartphone? Apple.

The list goes on and on. M1 could be such a harbinger. Who knows if anyone else can compete, and likely Apple will be in the pole position for some time, but Apple has shown everyone it can be done.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pat's a great guy and first class engineer, but I think it's just too late for him to turn Intel around at this point. The problems have become too entrenched. They needed someone like him at the helm 10 years ago. Apple's M1 shows that the world has passed Intel by. I wish him luck, though.

I recently purchased a MacbookPro w/ an M1 chip and i'm taken aback at the value/dollar, compute/power, compute/heat, compute/noise. I love the MBP-m1. I realize that WinTel machines arent going anywhere because of entrenched business use -- but between NVIDIA GPUs for heavy workloads and M1s for day-to-day activities -- what is the feeling inside Intel right now? Is this like a Microsoft-Netscape moment in the 90s?

Maybe more like Apple in the 90s?

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. Apple has solved the chicken and egg problem regarding software compatibility by forcing everyone to move on to ARM in the near future. Microsoft will not abandon x64 though, so there are far less incentives to port things. Also Microsoft cares far more about compatibility (e.g. 32-bit software). That means means a lot of things will run under a Rosetta 2 like system (probably less efficient if you need to sup…

An ARM transition isn't a fait accompli just because Apple introduced M1 at the lower end of the Mac lineup. There's a huge lump of inertia there.

At WWDC last year they made it clear that every Mac is going to run on ARM eventually.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#209
post #156

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What are your thoughts on VMware? It seems they are too in decline...

I work for VMware, via the Pivotal acquisition. My purely personal view is that VMware's second act has begun and it'll do well. Pat deserves some of the credit for accepting that Kubernetes would be the future of the business and throwing his weight behind it. There are aspects of Pat Gelsinger's leadership that I dislike, but they're orthogonal to his management style and foresight. He's been effective.

I will echo this. After we were acquired, I was incredibly hesitant about Pat. Over the past year, I’ve come to believe he is an excellent leader who has fantastic vision and insight even if we disagree on many things.

I’d be incredibly happy to have him if I were an Intel employee.

Re: Intel CEO Bob Swan to step down, VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace him

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. Apple has solved the chicken and egg problem regarding software compatibility by forcing everyone to move on to ARM in the near future. Microsoft will not abandon x64 though, so there are far less incentives to port things. Also Microsoft cares far more about compatibility (e.g. 32-bit software). That means means a lot of things will run under a Rosetta 2 like system (probably less efficient if you need to sup…

An ARM transition isn't a fait accompli just because Apple introduced M1 at the lower end of the Mac lineup. There's a huge lump of inertia there.

> An ARM transition isn't a fait accompli just because Apple introduced M1 at the lower end of the Mac lineup. There's a huge lump of inertia there.

If you're just referring to Apple's future, the endgame is already a done deal. They don't roll back something this fundamental once it's public.

Their last Intel computers will be manufactured and sold within 3 years; I'd wager a month's salary on that if I had it lying around.

If they can't make it perform at the top level like AMD, which seems unlikely but obviously it's too soon to tell, they'll make up for it in other ways or simply live with the performance hit until they can.

Apple doesn't believe in inertia. Their partners and customers can either make the transition or get left behind. Microsoft's business model depends on making enterprises happy; Apple doesn't care.

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