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Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

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Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#201

Post by sfj »

_y5hn wrote: post #193
umvi wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I notice you skipped South Korea. What stopped it there? South Korea is anomalous. Has literally any other country been able to replicate their success? > Glad you are admitting your own ignorance. Now, if you would just listen to the people who do know a little something about viral epidemics and their containment, you could cure that little condition. Containment/minimizing covid-19 deaths is a very short-sighted…

Taiwan. And your reasoning is just plain wrong. Measures bring R well below 1, that together with broad testing is when you start opening up.

It was never an epidemic in Taiwan, and they never did a shelter in place order nor closed businesses. They simply did contact tracing before it became a problem.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#202

Post by _y5hn »

sfj wrote: post #201
_y5hn wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan. And your reasoning is just plain wrong. Measures bring R well below 1, that together with broad testing is when you start opening up.

It was never an epidemic in Taiwan, and they never did a shelter in place order nor closed businesses. They simply did contact tracing before it became a problem.

So it worked "better", yes. It's not about closing down or opening up, but proper preparation and responses according to the circumstances. So we can draw ideas from countries that manage better.

If the goal is herd immunity, of course, it's not better. However, that comes with heavy costs and there's no consensus which strategy is best. Likely, the differeing strategies will converge somewhat. We can live fine with a scaled-down, controlled pandemic.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#203

Post by sfj »

_y5hn wrote: post #202
sfj wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was never an epidemic in Taiwan, and they never did a shelter in place order nor closed businesses. They simply did contact tracing before it became a problem.

So it worked "better", yes. It's not about closing down or opening up, but proper preparation and responses according to the circumstances. So we can draw ideas from countries that manage better. If the goal is herd immunity, of course, it's not better. However, that comes with heavy costs and there's no consensus which strategy is best. Likely, the differeing strategies will converge somewhat. We can live fine with…

> So it worked "better", yes.

Now I don't understand what you were replying to. I thought it was "South Korea is anomalous. Has literally any other country been able to replicate their success?" I don't see how it "worked better" answers whether it "replicated S.K.'s success". I'd argue it didn't because it didn't have S.K's problem (having not become a massive issue)

> It's not about closing down or opening up, but proper preparation and responses according to the circumstances. So we can draw ideas from countries that manage better.

Can we learn from Taiwan? Sure, and probably will. But their situation was never what we are facing now.

> If the goal is herd immunity, of course, it's not better. However, that comes with heavy costs and there's no consensus which strategy is best. Likely, the differeing strategies will converge somewhat. We can live fine with a scaled-down, controlled pandemic.

I also agree that this hope for herd immunity is a risky bet. Given it has already mutated at the hook site, I don't think a vaccine or antibodies is going to save us. If we reach herd immunity or develop a vaccine for one strain, then another may spread again like wildfire, just like the flu.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#204

Post by pfdietz »

downerending wrote: post #96
guscost wrote: post #5

Dying at home, many of them. Excess mortality is way up, and it’s not all COVID-19: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-at... > The possibility that patients may be suffering — and even dying — at home rather than going to a hospital led the American College of Cardiology to launch a “Cardiosmart” campaign last week, attempting to reassure a wary population and encourage those with symptoms to c…

Plus in other countries, they expect a massive uptick in polio, tuberculosis, etc., due to lack of vaccination and treatment. Some of this is inevitable. Some of this is due to economic lockdown, which will simply crush third-world economies.

That makes little sense. If people are isolating for COVID, it's going to knock down transmission of the other infectious diseases too.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#205

Post by macintux »

axguscbklp wrote: post #132
macintux wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet to hear anyone explain how we’re going to lose millions of lives due to the lockdown, whereas the risks of opening up without sufficient testing include that as a very real possibility. Yes, it stinks that people are suffering due to the lockdown, but the government could (if it were so inclined) pay people to stay home indefinitely. It clearly can’t manage the virus, however.

>the government could (if it were so inclined) pay people to stay home indefinitely I'm a bit skeptical, and would be even if instead of "indefinitely" we were just talking about a couple of years. I'm not necessarily disagreeing, but I'm curious about how the math would work out, in your opinion.

The Federal reserve pumped, I believe, about 1 trillion dollars into the economy in March. That would pay every unemployed worker somewhere around 80k.

Yes, that’s somewhat apples to oranges due to the way the reserve operates, but the money is available if the will is.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#206

Post by onetimemanytime »

seibelj wrote: post #29
guscost wrote: post #5

Dying at home, many of them. Excess mortality is way up, and it’s not all COVID-19: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-at... > The possibility that patients may be suffering — and even dying — at home rather than going to a hospital led the American College of Cardiology to launch a “Cardiosmart” campaign last week, attempting to reassure a wary population and encourage those with symptoms to c…

Could relaxing still home and cooking your own meals reduce activity-causing heart attacks? It’s a trope in the North-East that middle aged men die shoveling snow.

For the first few days maybe, but eventually you'll be throwing the frying pan at your others. Add lack of exercise, fresh air and there you have it. People also go nuts

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#207

Post by kalleboo »

pmiller2 wrote: post #90
sfj wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Opening things back up prematurely, without sufficient testing, is just going to get people killed. But how many will get killed? Allowing people to drive down the street also kills people. What's the limit?

Well, do you have research on how many excess deaths there would be if states started opening up now? California is taking a cautious approach by only opening in stages after cases have stabilized, and only after testing is present. Do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

> Do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

Sweden's response is also based on public health experts. And in Sweden, the apolitical public health agency is fully in charge, politicians meddling with their work is against the Swedish constitution. And the Swedish public health agency has stated that their response takes into account comprehensive long-term public health and not just short-term.

Is Sweden's response wrong? Maybe. But do you have a better plan than what a group of public health experts have come up with?

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#208

Post by umvi »

pmiller2 wrote: post #184
umvi wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I notice you skipped South Korea. What stopped it there? South Korea is anomalous. Has literally any other country been able to replicate their success? > Glad you are admitting your own ignorance. Now, if you would just listen to the people who do know a little something about viral epidemics and their containment, you could cure that little condition. Containment/minimizing covid-19 deaths is a very short-sighted…

South Korea contained the epidemic with massive testing and contact tracing. There is literally no reason why that could not be done here, once we get the number of cases down via lockdown measures. But, it would be foolish to start opening things up until the infrastructure to do that testing and contact tracing is in place. If the choice is saving capitalism or saving 450,000 lives, I choose lives. I don't give a s…

> If the choice is saving capitalism or saving 450,000 lives, I choose lives. ... How about you?

capitalism, hands down. Far more than 450k will die/suffer in the event of complete economic collapse. And yes, capitalism has its thorns, but generally it has brought more wealth and prosperity to people than any other economic model in history.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#209

Post by JoeAltmaier »

umvi wrote: post #208
pmiller2 wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea contained the epidemic with massive testing and contact tracing. There is literally no reason why that could not be done here, once we get the number of cases down via lockdown measures. But, it would be foolish to start opening things up until the infrastructure to do that testing and contact tracing is in place. If the choice is saving capitalism or saving 450,000 lives, I choose lives. I don't give a s…

> If the choice is saving capitalism or saving 450,000 lives, I choose lives. ... How about you? capitalism, hands down. Far more than 450k will die/suffer in the event of complete economic collapse. And yes, capitalism has its thorns, but generally it has brought more wealth and prosperity to people than any other economic model in history.

But its a strawman. Capitalism isn't at risk; some current business owners are at risk. And these conservatives are shouting "The sky is falling! Better let me go back into business! Only a few will die!" Because they value their money over other peoples lives.

Re: Eerie emptiness of ERs worries doctors: where are the heart attacks and strokes?

#210

Post by Fjolsvith »

Guest42 wrote: post #100
guscost wrote: post #5

Dying at home, many of them. Excess mortality is way up, and it’s not all COVID-19: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-at... > The possibility that patients may be suffering — and even dying — at home rather than going to a hospital led the American College of Cardiology to launch a “Cardiosmart” campaign last week, attempting to reassure a wary population and encourage those with symptoms to c…

Perhaps unemployment being up leads to people not wanting ER bills even more than usual.

Exactly. Unemployment doesn't have the employer benefit of health insurance.
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