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A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

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Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#201

Post by xwdv »

britch wrote: post #135
xwdv wrote: post #54

IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier. People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting tr…

Many people, who work in those industries you list as things "you don't need" are without work and health insurance (if they had in the first place). 16 million more people are out of work in the US [0]. Those out of work cannot get care for usual issues that would normally be provided by their employer, and are now unable to get care for issues related to COVID. They are going to struggle to pay rent next month (lik…

I’m curious if you would tell someone who was really struggling if they should “expand their view” and consider those who are not affected at all.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#202

Post by malandrew »

scott_s wrote: post #180
nostromo wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$6T has been created, but an unknown $X trillion has also been destroyed by a sharp and sudden decrease in economic activity, including a contraction of credit. So... who knows. Maybe it's enough, maybe it's too much, or maybe it's too little -- it's too early to say.

This is why I dislike that some have characterized the bill as a "stimulus." The point of stimulus efforts is to stimulate the economy, implying that it's ready to be stimulated. It's not. The $6 trillion is life support . We've put the economy into a medically induced coma. The $6 trillion is what we need to keep the economy alive, barely, while we try to get Covid-19 under control. Once we've done that, we'll need…

Medically-induced coma and life support is a far better analogy. Thanks for this.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#203

Post by malandrew »

ttul wrote: post #176
nostromo wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$6T has been created, but an unknown $X trillion has also been destroyed by a sharp and sudden decrease in economic activity, including a contraction of credit. So... who knows. Maybe it's enough, maybe it's too much, or maybe it's too little -- it's too early to say.

Thank you for pointing this out. Secondly, just what the hell is the central bank supposed to do? Had they not intervened hard in debt markets, we would have seen bank runs and mass chaos in financial markets, making things we take for granted (such as paying for stuff at the grocery store) totally fail over night. I am wayyyy less worried about the magnitude of the Fed’s intervention than I am about what might have…

Lately, I've been amazed at the number of people that have been arguing in favor of allowing "otherwise" to happen.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#204

Post by malandrew »

_curious_ wrote: post #123
throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

Having lived through, intimately observed, and now in reflecting on the 2008 situation - Id's say your assessment is fair. That same effect/outcome multiplied this time around, seems to be inline. While the recovery may miraculously end up more evenly distributed (with Sanders out I don't see enough pressure/leverage) under current administration and potentially four more years, nothing is off limits and this one may…

I would wager that most if not all downturns lead to greater concentration of wealth, since they invariably favor those that cover their risks with tail hedges and maintain a cash reserve for these market events. People who do this are far less common than those that don't and ownership will inevitably flow most dramatically to those that are prepared in a downtown.

The converse, where everyone is prepared, at best would lead to maintaining the status quo, since everyone is ready and willing to pick up the few assets that are forced into a firesale if any.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#205

Post by [deleted] »

downerending wrote: post #174
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been bombarded by a popular "stimulus for the rich" from everywhere. Please describe what would happen if stimulus did not pass and there was no assistance from the government.

As analogy, drain all of the oil from your car's engine. Start it, put it in neutral, and floor the accelerator until morale improves.

[deleted]

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#206

Post by malandrew »

BubRoss wrote: post #198
throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

6 trillion USD is about $30,000 per US tax payer. People should think about where that is going as they get their $1000 checks in the mail.

The majority of that $30,000 is loans that will have to be paid back.

Comparing their $1200 checks with no strings attached to other money in the stimulus being lent is apples and oranges.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#207

Post by ericmcer »

rwmj wrote: post #5
frockington1 wrote: post #2

The articles states as fact there will be negative impacts on long term consumer sentiment and spending without really providing any evidence. Most Americans are about to receive a $1200 check and unemployment benefits that pay more than their job did for the next 6 months. I don't think consumer spending is going anywhere soon.

The markets - after a welcome and long overdue correction - are up a few percent, so people seem to be buying in on the expectation of things getting back to normal. Prices seem to be back to 2016/2017 levels. This doesn't indicate to me that people with money believe we're in for a great depression.

No it puts it at November of last year levels.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#208

Post by adamsea »

vkou wrote: post #192
harimau777 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For sake of argument: If U-3 is the one that everyone pays attention to does it really matter that much if the others exist?

To respond to your argument - it may not matter that the others exist, but allegations that the books have been cooked are unfounded. The books are there, plain as day, and there are no shenanigans with them.

There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Presenting merely data or information is insufficient. The responsibility is to present useful, contextualized information to the public - knowledge.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#209

Post by WanderPanda »

nostromo wrote: post #168
throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

$6T has been created, but an unknown $X trillion has also been destroyed by a sharp and sudden decrease in economic activity, including a contraction of credit. So... who knows. Maybe it's enough, maybe it's too much, or maybe it's too little -- it's too early to say.

Decrease in economic activities = decrease in goods and services offered + increasing amount of Money > Inflation (inevitable?) Demand should stay the same for many products and services and decrease for some (cyclic) goods like machinery etc. Time to get into Gold, Bitcoin and (non-cyclic) Stocks?

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#210

Post by Ancalagon »

danbolt wrote: post #193
ipnon wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US spends $7 for seniors for every $1 they spend on minors.[0] [0] https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/1_how_m...

I’m not an expert, but I’d imagine that’s related to seniors voting much more reliably than the youth.

Darn those millenials, they shouldn't have had a smaller voting-block, shouldn't have spent so much time in low paying hourly positions with no time off, and should have voted before they were 18! /s
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