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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

wsj.com

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#201

Post by mdarens »

big_chungus wrote: post #149
minikites wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub."

How is shrinking the government to blame? It's expanded colossal ever since the new deal. Grover Norquist, the guy you're quoting, is not an elected official. He was just saying what he believes. That's pretty weak evidence for "the problem". The only nation that ended up containing it was China, because being able to tightly control what your population does is one of the perks of authoritarianism. That said, it doe…

the welfare state expanded dramatically after the new deal, but that reversed with the turn toward austerity in the late 70s. "the government" is an overly broad way of speaking about this, as it places budgeting for defense contracts & bailing out finance capital, or monetary policy geared toward preventing the labor market from getting tight (as opposed to full employment) under the same umbrella as tanf & snap.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#202

Post by enraged_camel »

luma wrote: post #88
stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

Further, unemployment benefits are managed by the states, and those states are running web services which typically see a few hundred hits a day. They are now trying to process tens of thousands of new records each day, and at least in MI the service is absolutely not up to the task. My wife managed to get her filing completed a little after 1am this morning. She was the only one of her 20 coworkers to successfully f…

I mean, you can tell the numbers are extremely inaccurate via just a simple, cursory glance at the report.

Pennsylvania reported 378k claims.

California reported... 186k claims.

Yesterday, California's governor said they've received more than 1 million claims since March 13th (so, over a 12 day period from the 13th to the 25th). This DOL report covers March 14th through the 21st.

Are we to believe that the remaining 800k+ people all filed on March 13th, or March 22nd through the 25th?

But there's more. Utah reported an increase of only 9 claims compared to the week before. They went from 1,305 to 1,314.

Then, New York, where more than half of Covid-19 cases in the US are, reported only 80k?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#203

Post by duxup »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #102
duxup wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This event forcing America to adopt more progressive policies Most of the legislation is temporary heading into an election. I suspect the GOP would be happy to cut that net ASAP and sadly their own voters would support it.

I have some models as to how this changes the US electorate, based on the burn rate. Curious to see how right I am.

It feels like we're on the edge of a sea change... but it has seemed that way for decades.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#204

Post by toomuchtodo »

duxup wrote: post #203
toomuchtodo wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have some models as to how this changes the US electorate, based on the burn rate. Curious to see how right I am.

It feels like we're on the edge of a sea change... but it has seemed that way for decades.

History happens gradually, and then suddenly.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#205

Post by fallingfrog »

Things that Coronavirus is teaching us:

-the people who are actually vital to make the economy are grocery clerks, doctors, nurses, teachers and other carers, but not corporate CEOs, who are ultimately just dead weight.

-money is imaginary and they can print as much as they want.

-the people in power right now would rather have the stock market crash and watch you and a million other Americans die than give healthcare to everyone, even in the middle of a pandemic. How much would it help to have a centralized, organized response where everyone gets tested early right now? But it’s impossible, because it would mean giving health care to poor people.

-capitalism is a beast that dies if it cannot grow. People work mostly to pay rent and debts. They pay rent so the landlord can pay the mortgage. The bank has already lent out the money they expect to get from people paying the mortgage- so if property owners don’t pay their monthly bill, the whole financial system has a heart attack. Same thing with corporate debt. The corporation is assuming that you’re going to buy crap you don’t need. If you don’t, then they can’t pay their massive debts and again the whole system seizes up. So the primary reason we spend all our useful hours at work is so that we can make numbers bigger at the bank. And all of these debts, ultimately, are paid off on the backs of the working class. But the whole system can’t be reduced, or paused, or even slowed down- it must grow exponentially more and more, consuming more and more resources forever, or else it craters in a devastating crash and cannibalizes itself on the way down.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#206

Post by est31 »

johnpowell wrote: post #26
est31 wrote: post #11

To make it sure that I understand it correctly: this is not the total number of unemployed people, but the number of people who became unemployed recently and now file the forms? Then that number is gigantic, wow.

This is the number of people that filed for unemployment in the last week. A staggering number. Just seven days of data.

Seven days, that's horrible. Let's hope these people quickly find work again.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#207

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

enraged_camel wrote: post #202
luma wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Further, unemployment benefits are managed by the states, and those states are running web services which typically see a few hundred hits a day. They are now trying to process tens of thousands of new records each day, and at least in MI the service is absolutely not up to the task. My wife managed to get her filing completed a little after 1am this morning. She was the only one of her 20 coworkers to successfully f…

I mean, you can tell the numbers are extremely inaccurate via just a simple, cursory glance at the report. Pennsylvania reported 378k claims. California reported... 186k claims. Yesterday, California's governor said they've received more than 1 million claims since March 13th (so, over a 12 day period from the 13th to the 25th). This DOL report covers March 14th through the 21st. Are we to believe that the remaining…

As of 3/21. Lockdown in California began in the evening of 3/19. Still not enough time for the numbers to react.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#208

Post by nck4222 »

stupandaus wrote: post #24

A few things to note: 1. These figures are only new claims as of 3/21, so the numbers will get worse. 2. This is ~2% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 3. This is nearly 5x (!) the prior record of 671K new jobless claims from 1982, and redefines the scale for jobless claims. [1] 4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment s…

>4. This does not account for the countless gig workers that are part of the modern economy that likely did not file for unemployment since they were not covered prior to the passing of the senate bill last night.

You (and others) are probably aware, but worth pointing out that these people still can not currently file for unemployment benefits until the house passes the bill, the senate approves any house amendments to the bill, and the president signs the bill.

The house isn't voting on this until tomorrow at the earliest, so there's still a ways to go.

There's probably others as well that have had their pay reduced, that are waiting to see what's going to be passed before filing for benefits. Anecdotally I know of some software engineers in this boat.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#210

Post by sixothree »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #150
toomuchtodo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine those less at risk will eventually give up on confinement and continue on with their lives, forcing those at risk (risk factors, 60+, immunocompromised) to remain confined voluntarily or risk a greater chance of death by venturing out. Those not at risk (younger and healthier) will be prioritized for triage and ventilator access if they do get sick. You can't expect people to shelter in place indefinitely,…

I think the next couple of weeks are going to be eye opening - we're going to get a lot of reports of deaths, even of the young and healthy, which we're already seeing. That should steel the collective resolve to last a while here. People are talking of lifting the restrictions and our collective endurance and things have barely gotten going. It's really complaining about the length of the red light when it's just tu…

Everything suggests this is taking a dark turn in the coming days. I'm doing my best to stay safe.
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