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50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

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Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#201

Post by logicallee »

nostromo wrote: post #26

I wonder if this will be like H1N1. At first we only identified extreme cases and we had these terrifying reported fatality rates. Then we identify more and more mild or asymptomatic cases and the rates drop and drop. We’ve already seen how CFR was reported as 3 or 4%. Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower. H1N1 was ident…

>Then on the cruise ship full of people over 60 it’s 0.7%. If there are lots of mild or asymptomatic cases it will likely be much lower.

Here is a comedy show lambasting Donald Trump for saying he had a hunch this was the case:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNfmTMdoao0

Donald Trump's gut probably saved thousands of Americans through closing the borders early (this is a talking point he repeats again and again and I haven't seen anyone argue with this - so I accept that if any other President had been in office that President wouldn't have closed the borders from highly hit areas so early - an unprecedented action - and hundreds, or thousands of Americans would be dead. Since it is unrefuted I accept Trump's assertion that U.S. has a huge number of tourists and ordinarily would have been harder-hit.)

However: not sure how I feel about being led by a gut rather than experts.

I debated whether to submit this but I will do this to judge for myself HN replies and voting on my comment.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#202

Post by globular-toast »

xupybd wrote: post #3

That sounds like the perfect way for a disease to spread. Do nothing to most.

Do nothing to everyone. The virus doesn't benefit from killing its host. Quite the opposite, in fact. Successful viruses keep their hosts alive. Think influenza, rhinovirus, herpes etc. Viruses that kill tend to be ones that crossed the species barrier (ie. we're not the original hosts).

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#203

Post by sWW26 »

ksec wrote: post #197
lgats wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How are the South Korean's coming up with such few positives if the disease is presumably spreading among the 70% with no symptoms?

They wore medical grade mask in the first place. Hygiene and cautious about it. They stopped and block visits from China ( or any where else with COVID ) very early on. Instead of acting everything is going to be great despite all the warnings, they were mindful and kept social gathering to minimal. ( Comparatively speaking ). Citizens were also proactively reporting if they were having symptoms, and government are t…

Where did you get the information that they've blocked people traveling from anywhere with Covid. You can still turn up now from Europe and be let in, they just ask you to install an app and report your health status daily.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#204

Post by rwmurrayVT »

torpidor wrote: post #92
lend000 wrote: post #63

I'm not a confirmed case, but I'm a 90% sure case based on symptoms and symptoms of people I have been in close contact with, and so far the experience has been relatively mild, in the literal sense. The primary discomfort has likely been the anxiety of how the tightness in my chest might progress (which ironically can also cause chest tightness). I'm in a low risk group. I had lethargy and high fever the first day o…

Similarly, I'm not a confirmed case but I've been isolation since Friday just out of general precaution, and I developed a mild chest tightness while here. I was sure it wasn't covid because I didn't have a fever, but just a few hours ago I checked again and I have a borderline one (99.4). Then my girlfriend got an email that someone tested positive from the same floor in her office. I don't qualify for a test and my…

I am inclined to believe I am in the same boat. I have had a somewhat sore throat in the morning. I am producing a slight amount of phlegm with a light cough. I don't have a thermometer and they're unreasonably expensive locally/amazon. My chest feels fairly tight.

I don't know if it's allergies or what, but every one on my office floor is coughing. We're all fairly young so I can't help but believe they're all also infected and just rolling along.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#205

Post by smichel17 »

GreaterFool wrote: post #124

Here’s another question: isolation... and then what? Sit at home until 2021 when we maybe have a vaccine? I don’t see how we make this virus disappear so while I can see how people staying at home can stop the spread, what happens when they leave? Back to square one? Maybe UK approach is better. Maybe we should infect young people deliberately. Here’s Netflix, some books, some video games, some virus, stay at home fo…

Isolation is too slow the spread. Let the currently sick people get treated, then let the next wave of people catch the virus, once the hospitals have more capacity again. The virus is not that dangerous (under 1% fatality) as long as the healthcare system does not collapse.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#206

Post by himinlomax »

kevingadd wrote: post #116
GreaterFool wrote: post #115

I keep hearing “masks are useless”. If every person who has any cough or any chest tightness or any sore throat, however mild, put on a mask, wouldn’t that stop the spread? I live in Japan. It started here earlier but didn’t explode. Nothing is closed. Business as usual. everyone wears masks. Most cases in Hokkaido. Maybe because it is much colder there and easy to overexposed and tax the immune system.

I think some of the logic behind "masks are useless" is that if people believe masks will prevent it, they'll get too reckless about going out as long as they have a mask. Sadly many people wear masks incorrectly and other people will wear masks that don't actually block viral particulates while out there acting more dangerously than otherwise, spreading disease. IIRC anything below N95 isn't going to do much, and fr…

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-...

"Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired"

"To help manage the shortage, the authorities sent a message that made them untrustworthy."

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#207

Post by Mumps »

jansan wrote: post #174
he_is_legend wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a huge shortage of masks in the west - even hospitals are running out.

And that is the only reason for the claim that masks are useless. Of course they are not useless, Chinese aren't idiots.

Oh come on.

A) nobody is making that claim - you are.

So don't turn this into some weird non-fact-based appeal to emotions. The claim that they are useless is because the evidence does not support them. They ARE useful in clinical settings, and heavily required there.

B) there is no evidence for their success:

1) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344 "implementing simple hygiene measures" was vastly more effective." "Although there is a perception that the wearing of facemasks may be beneficial, there is in fact very little evidence of widespread benefit from their use outside of these clinical setting." "routine surgical masks for the public are not an effective protection against viruses or bacteria carried in the air"

2)research study, particularly on leakage: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3306645/

3) efficiacy in Beijin: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5969371/ (again largely leakage)

4) efficacy in 22micron particulate: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3470452 (again leakage. but depends on particulate size)

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#208

Post by atomi »

mantap wrote: post #199
jansan wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is the only reason for the claim that masks are useless. Of course they are not useless, Chinese aren't idiots.

It's a white lie by the media. If they told the truth to the public then they fear it would deprive hospitals of masks and cause worse outcomes for society.

They're obviously not useless. They do keep spittle down. But every person in public would have to wear them in the off chance they're asymptomatic carriers.

And a virus will still penetrate most masks through the sides where air is mainly being pulled in from. So there is more nuance than just "masks are useless"

I guess you can wear them. But given the choice I'd rather have immunity. And I think we should focus more on that.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#209

Post by rickyc091 »

GreaterFool wrote: post #115

I keep hearing “masks are useless”. If every person who has any cough or any chest tightness or any sore throat, however mild, put on a mask, wouldn’t that stop the spread? I live in Japan. It started here earlier but didn’t explode. Nothing is closed. Business as usual. everyone wears masks. Most cases in Hokkaido. Maybe because it is much colder there and easy to overexposed and tax the immune system.

It's useless in the sense that you can still contract the virus with a mask. Let's say they are using the surgeon's mask, someone can sneeze and it can get in through the side. The n95 has a better seal so that can prevent it, but what if someone sneezes and it gets into your eye. I would say some protection is better than nothing, but don't assume you will be protected from coronavirus 100%.

Re: 50% – 75% of cases of Covid-19 are asymptomatic

#210

Post by jaclaz »

bsaul wrote: post #137
easytiger wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Italy did everything wrong. They basically turned hospitals into covid19 infection parties.

do you have sources for that ? i'm extremely interested in understanding why italy seems to be suffering that much compared to other countries. If it's just a matter of being the first, or if it's also something specific to them.

As a side note - and JFYI - Italy's situation is very nuanced, as you can see on this map (divided by region):

http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

In the North (and particularly in Lombardy) the situation is dramatic, in the center and in the south it is not (yet) that bad.

Basically the lock-down (started on national level on the 10 th of March) seemingly - and for the moment - managed to work to reduce the spread of the infection in other regions.

The previous lock-down (limited to some cities/provinces of the north) was only a couple days before and evidently too late to be effective.

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