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Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

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Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#201

Post by AnthonyMouse »

xkjkls wrote: post #151
slg wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's products allow for decentralized power. A Tesla solar panel feeds into a Tesla battery which powers your Tesla car and the rest of your house. That all works without Tesla building power plants or transmission lines.

Solar is generally moving away from decentralized consumer Solar to more industrial levels given the decreased maintenance burden. Why do we believe Tesla is on the right side of this?

I don't know if it's fair to say that it's moving away from decentralized installations. There were a lot of subsidies for home solar when solar wasn't competitive on its own. Now the subsidies are gone but the panels cost less.

In the new context a large solar installation connected to the grid is more cost effective if you need a grid for nighttime. The real question is whether batteries will make it so you don't need that. They're currently too expensive for that, but they're also declining in price. So if batteries get cheap enough that you can run your home from local panels and batteries without needing the grid, the cost of needing to keep the grid when you could otherwise not have it anymore makes the centralization lose its cost advantage.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#202

Post by 300bps »

ninth_ant wrote: post #199
40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

What you describe would be the “bull case” dozens of billions in valuation ago. Right now we are quite disconnected from that, in my analysis. To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) and do an Amazon-like turnaround of losses into profitability. Anything short of that, their valuation is ludicrous.

Tesla is not just a car manufacturer though right? They are a solar company and battery company too. They could conceivably have astronomical growth in both of those segments.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#203

Post by sf_rob »

primrose wrote: post #181
throwaway5752 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GM? Bolt is a great car and GM has enormous production capability. Well aware of the difference in sales figures, but having driven both, I prefer it to the Model S. I think battery tech will end up deciding the market, though, and GM would have to pivot harder that I think they are able to in order to beat Tesla. I am very curious about their internal R&D pipeline for the Maxwell technology.

Why do you prefer the Bolt? From my perspective the Bolt is: -Ugly -Less safe -Slower -Doesn't drive itself, or will be capable in the future Worst of all the Bolt's infotainment system is horrible. https://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/englis...

>Worst of all the Bolt's infotainment system is horrible.

It has Carplay/Android Auto; you'd never look at that UI if you didn't want to.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#204

Post by rodgerd »

ninth_ant wrote: post #199
40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

What you describe would be the “bull case” dozens of billions in valuation ago. Right now we are quite disconnected from that, in my analysis. To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) and do an Amazon-like turnaround of losses into profitability. Anything short of that, their valuation is ludicrous.

They would have to do substantially better than Amazon, who lost far less money before becoming profitable.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#205

Post by wilg »

slfnflctd wrote: post #184
irjustin wrote: post #3

Congrats to the whole Tesla team + SpaceX. Crushing things. It's taken a long time, but it's all starting to pay off.

I think they should buy this company [0] and sell the vehicle at cost (temporarily) to capture the lowest end of the market, too. [Only half kidding, I was sad to see this happen and couldn't find anywhere else to post about it in my limited free time.] [0] https://www.treehugger.com/bikes/want-buy-high-tech-low-carb...

How profoundly silly!

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#206

Post by taneq »

m463 wrote: post #188
slg wrote: post #25

I have been a longtime bull, but their stock value is now up over 140% in the last 3 months and I can't say I fully understand why.

I think the cybertruck announcement caught the attention of a lot of "normal" people. I remember years ago reading that although the "please don't squeeze the charmin" commercials were annoying, people remembered the name. Maybe a really weird truck announcement works the same. Or it could be that "normal" people are starting to see model 3s showing up (outside of california for once)

I'd never seen that before and it's brilliant. Advertising isn't meant to be unobtrusive and transparent like software. It needs to be attention-grabbing and memorable in order to work.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#207

Post by natmaka »

xkjkls wrote: post #151
slg wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's products allow for decentralized power. A Tesla solar panel feeds into a Tesla battery which powers your Tesla car and the rest of your house. That all works without Tesla building power plants or transmission lines.

Solar is generally moving away from decentralized consumer Solar to more industrial levels given the decreased maintenance burden. Why do we believe Tesla is on the right side of this?

In many nations solar power is subsidized, more often than not in an administratively burdening way (paperwork!), and subsidies/regulation were frequently modified, discouraging the average citizen. A prominent case is France. This is IMHO at least partly crony capitalism at work. However it is only temporary and doesn't magically suppress benefits tied to local production.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#208

Post by taneq »

primrose wrote: post #185
xkjkls wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it? They still lost close to $800 million this last year. And the company is growing slower than it ever was.

If they have a full year of profitability will you agree?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/29/business/tesla-earnings/i... Like this, you mean?

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#209

Post by taneq »

slfnflctd wrote: post #184
irjustin wrote: post #3

Congrats to the whole Tesla team + SpaceX. Crushing things. It's taken a long time, but it's all starting to pay off.

I think they should buy this company [0] and sell the vehicle at cost (temporarily) to capture the lowest end of the market, too. [Only half kidding, I was sad to see this happen and couldn't find anywhere else to post about it in my limited free time.] [0] https://www.treehugger.com/bikes/want-buy-high-tech-low-carb...

Tesla's entire schtick is that they sell good cars that happen to be electric, instead of the deliberately wacky science project offerings that most companies try to sell.

Those things basically look like a rehash of the Twike, which has been around since the 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twike

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#210

Post by leoh »

taneq wrote: post #209
slfnflctd wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they should buy this company [0] and sell the vehicle at cost (temporarily) to capture the lowest end of the market, too. [Only half kidding, I was sad to see this happen and couldn't find anywhere else to post about it in my limited free time.] [0] https://www.treehugger.com/bikes/want-buy-high-tech-low-carb...

Tesla's entire schtick is that they sell good cars that happen to be electric, instead of the deliberately wacky science project offerings that most companies try to sell. Those things basically look like a rehash of the Twike, which has been around since the 80s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twike

Sure, but if you could convince people to drive around in wacky science project offerings, it would be a hell of a lot cheaper, better for the environment, safer, and healthier.
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