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The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

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Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#201

Post by Reason077 »

amadeusw wrote: post #174
Reason077 wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxis, city buses, UPS trucks, etc, all tend to be busy during the day. They get charged overnight, when grid demand is lower, and take advantage of low off-peak electricity prices. The idea that these things place a “huge strain on the grid” as the poster above suggests just sounds like more made up FUD.

No, the poster above is right. There was an article about this a month ago or so. Anyways, the TLDR is that vehicles need to charge more often than just nightly and not just at the main depot. Transit agencies need to build heavy duty fast charging infrastructure scattered across many locations in the city. This has been so far a large upfront cost which holds transit EV expansion at bay.

If their vehicles need to charge more often than just overnight, then they need to consider whether they are buying the right vehicles for the job.

The examples I mentioned are from London, which has a growing fleet of hundreds of heavy electric vehicles (city buses, UPS trucks, etc). All of these charge exclusively overnight.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#202

Post by Reason077 »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #165
sokoloff wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the 8 year warranty is driven by the federal requirement to warrant emissions systems for 8 years/80K miles. I think that all EV manufacturers are providing at least that level of warranty for battery and electric motor and think that it's likely linked to the federal emissions control warranty requirement. There's a school of thought that past the warranty period, the traction battery is likely going to la…

> when the battery dies, there is likely no economically sound way to replace with a new battery While I can imagine that being a very likely scenario; I can also imagine a future where someone down at the local shopping mall will change the battery out for a Chinese compatible unit while you do your shopping. In the same way the currently do for phone batteries, screens etc. It would be great for standard agencies /…

Exactly. In a decade or two, I can imagine thriving third-party shops specialising in battery upgrades for all popular electric vehicles.

They don't really exist today, because contrary to what anti-EV FUDsters believe, there just aren't many EVs with worn out batteries yet. Perhaps there are a few, but the number of EVs written off in accidents (and thus making donor batteries available) is much, much greater.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#203

Post by xxpor »

Causality1 wrote: post #48
xxpor wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bought a laptop with a replaceable battery, RAM, and HDD this year. A Lenovo T480. Most people don't have to buy a MacBook (outside of iOS dev).

Good choice, since it's the last one which had the feature. The T490 drops support for removable batteries.

>The T490 drops support for removable batteries.

That's seriously disappointing :(

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#204

Post by WorldMaker »

AgloeDreams wrote: post #197
WorldMaker wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota is also probably stuck in a weird version of the sunk costs fallacy at this point, having spent R&D money continuously on hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles since the 1990s. Luckily for them, a good hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is just a good EV with a really weird "refillable battery", so their sunk costs aren't likely to sink the company because the rest of the "drive train" is the roughly the…

Exactly, they were originally acting extremely forward thinking. The one thing they simply did not see coming is the mid-2000's mobile tech revolution. The cost of lithium batteries fell like a rock to where they are today (due to smartphones, etc) and that was simply unforeseeable 20 years ago. What Toyota needs now is a single skateboard platform for both BEV and FCEV and then to simply build the FC models with a d…

To keep weight/handling similar they could probably even fill it with as many batteries as they can subtracting only the full weight of a filled fuel cell (ie, it may not be so much of a "dummy" pack). That might keep HFC EVs in line to be the last surviving PHEV model as ICE retires, which would keep/permanently enshrine Toyota's (Prius) spot in the PHEV hall of fame.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#205

Post by kingnothing »

snarfy wrote: post #103
joe-collins wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a robust charging network is a third dependency. You need to have a garage, or commute to someplace with or near a charger. Down here in San Diego (East County), I don't see a lot of the latter.

You need a garage, and a circuit with 60A capacity. Most houses built today have 200A total capacity, older homes are 100A. At some point the electric grid will need updated.

L2 chargers draw 30A, you only need a 40A circuit for that.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#206

Post by bluGill »

Reason077 wrote: post #202
VBprogrammer wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when the battery dies, there is likely no economically sound way to replace with a new battery While I can imagine that being a very likely scenario; I can also imagine a future where someone down at the local shopping mall will change the battery out for a Chinese compatible unit while you do your shopping. In the same way the currently do for phone batteries, screens etc. It would be great for standard agencies /…

Exactly. In a decade or two, I can imagine thriving third-party shops specialising in battery upgrades for all popular electric vehicles. They don't really exist today, because contrary to what anti-EV FUDsters believe, there just aren't many EVs with worn out batteries yet. Perhaps there are a few, but the number of EVs written off in accidents (and thus making donor batteries available) is much, much greater.

I wouldn't call them thriving. I agree they will exist, but unless the price of batteries come down a lot they won't be cost effective. By the time a car needs a new battery it will already have a lot of other wear and not be worth much. Spending $5000 on a battery for a car worth $3000 after the fix isn't a good deal for most people. (if you keep the car for 10 more years it is, which is why the industry will exist) Of course both dollar values are made up, they are realistic with today's prices but subject to change.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#207

Post by pi-rat »

chrisjc wrote: post #155
pi-rat wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's been debunked here in Norway. The major factor to road wear and tear is and has always been trucks and other heavy vehicles. > - It does not matter how many passenger cars drive on the roads. Only heavy transport wears it down, says Arild Ragnøy at the Norwegian Public Roads Administration. > - All the analyzes I have seen show that all wear and tear comes from the heavy trucks, zero from private cars, says Ha…

> The major factor to road wear and tear is and has always been trucks and other heavy vehicles. What about electric trucks and other heavy vehicles? Or is there little difference since these vehicles would probably have been diesel with a lot of potential torque anyways?

That I do not know, diesel trucks are very torquey, though Elon said that their Semi could probably pull a diesel up a hill in a tug match.

I live in a pretty steep hillside of the town, and the electric garbage truck here handles it like a boss. It's made by Geesinknorba, but I couldn't find any specs.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#208

Post by clouddrover »

michaelt wrote: post #199
clouddrover wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say it would replace the need for a changing network. I do say that in Summer you could get an average of 50 kilometres per day from solar in the Lightyear One (if you live somewhere sunny). That would cover the daily commute of many people. You could go months without plugging in.

The 3.8 mile range figure is from the Experimental Toyota Prius article you linked. I’ve also used my home rooftop solar PV to charge a Hyundai Kona. Unless this “lightyear one” has solar panels the size of six parking spaces, I suspect the reason they claim so much more than Toyota is because it’s BS.

> The 3.8 mile range figure is from the Experimental Toyota Prius article you linked.

Read the article again. You're confusing the small solar panel Toyota has as a current production option with the new experimental solar Prius which has much larger panels.

> I suspect the reason they claim so much more than Toyota is because it’s BS.

Based on what? The fact that the Lightyear One is being developed by members of Solar Team Eindhoven who have won the World Solar Challenge race three times? How many times have you won the World Solar Challenge?

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#209

Post by clouddrover »

Reason077 wrote: post #200
clouddrover wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's warranty is 8 years at 70% original capacity for the Model 3. For the X and S they don't warrant the capacity at all: https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty You'll be getting less range over time as the battery degrades. Eventually you'll have to replace the battery to get the range back.

They don't explicitly state a warranted capacity for the Model S/X, but I've never heard of an S/X battery with more than ~20% degradation that wasn't considered faulty by Tesla. Whatever Tesla's reason is for not stating a specific capacity, it's not to screw over S/X owners, and I'm sure that 30% capacity loss within 8 years would be considered a fault. We don't yet know how they stand up over >8 years of service,…

> I'm sure that 30% capacity loss within 8 years would be considered a fault.

Why are you sure? If it's not under warranty, it's not under warranty. If it's considered a fault then it would be warranted.

Re: The Lithium Mine Buildup Is Outpacing the Electric-Car Boom

#210

Post by neltnerb »

Reason077 wrote: post #201
amadeusw wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the poster above is right. There was an article about this a month ago or so. Anyways, the TLDR is that vehicles need to charge more often than just nightly and not just at the main depot. Transit agencies need to build heavy duty fast charging infrastructure scattered across many locations in the city. This has been so far a large upfront cost which holds transit EV expansion at bay.

If their vehicles need to charge more often than just overnight, then they need to consider whether they are buying the right vehicles for the job. The examples I mentioned are from London, which has a growing fleet of hundreds of heavy electric vehicles (city buses, UPS trucks, etc). All of these charge exclusively overnight.

Why move a heavier battery pack around if you can have a charging station at both ends of your route? Certainly lower weight means lower cost battery packs and overall higher efficiency since you're not dragging around spare energy for most of your day.
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