Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030 • Hacker News Board

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#201

Post by jopsen » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 5:58 PM UTC

PopeDotNinja wrote: post #26

I went to Denmark last year and spent two weeks driving all over the countryside, and likely would have been difficult to reach with an electric car. Many of the places I visited would not have been accessible via public transit. I'm curious how future generations will reach remote places as we move away from fossil fuels. BTW, I loved Denmark :)

The local news is reporting the plan is to stop sales of diesel cars.

Not gasoline...

Regardless, if we force the market, electric cars will catch up. But bans probably won't do the trick, I bet it'll take incentives in terms of higher taxes on gasoline and lower on electric cars.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#202

Post by philipkglass » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:00 PM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #181

ciconia wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Switching from a 10yr old ICE hatchback to a new one can easily save you $500 pa. Going from a new "efficient" ICE to an electric will save you a fraction of that. Not true. From personal experience driving an electric costs one fifth the cost of fuel per km. That's an enormous saving.

A Prius gets around 55 mpg, which with gas at 3.25/gal and electricity at 0.11/kWh means a Chevy Bolt, for example, costs just a little over half what the electric does, per mile. The electric also has a significantly higher capital cost and depreciation rate. I wouldn't be at all surprised if over, say, five years, the Prius has a cheaper TCO.

This is sensitive to local costs of both fuel and electricity. In my part of Washington state I last paid $3.43 per gallon of gasoline but residential electricity is about 6.5 cents per kWh.

It looks like in Denmark electricity prices were 0.30 EUR (0.35 USD) per kWh in the second half of 2017, while gasoline prices are currently 12.26 DKK per liter (7.15 USD per US gallon).

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#203

Post by jopsen » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:04 PM UTC

ptaipale wrote: post #187

woobar wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that people hold on to cars longer and buy used more And yet the average age of the car in Denmark is 8.9 years [1]. For comparison Germany is at 9.3 year, and US is at 11.6 years [2] [1] http://www.aut.fi/en/statistics/international_statistics/ave... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/261881/average-age-of-li...

The two sources is different, so it might be good to be wary about comparing them. Could be right though. But anyway, these average ages may be due to little used old cars being taken out of registry, to avoid annual fixed taxes? This has not much impact on the average age of cars used in daily traffic. FWIW, I'm from Finland, also with a history of high car purchase taxes, and the average in above data is almost 12…

No, I think they did lower it to 180% last year..

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#204

Post by dsfyu404ed » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:04 PM UTC

ska wrote: post #199

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You may not be able to drive your ICE car to the track though, might have to trailer it. Owning vehicle you have to trailer to the track is kind of like owning guns and using them to hunt in England. Yeah you can do it but all the red tape and cost results in practically only the landed gentry being able to justify such a costly hobby. That's really not the same.

I don't think that's a fair comparison. A lot of track vehicles used today are dedicated, and not necessarily expensive. Fundamentally there are difficult compromises to make a vehicle behave well on the street and track, after all - you can often be cheaper overall to have a daily driver and a track car/bike, and make fewer compromises. Also spend less of your time changing tires :)

Most automotive enthusiasts don't have track vehicles, most have street-able vehicles they take to the track (or whatever their preferred event is). This is even more true for 4x4s and drag racing.

Saying "well having a vehicle you trailer to the event is cheaper" assumes a baseline amount of money being spent that is more than most people have to dedicate to the hobby. That cuts out the entire low end of the hobby.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#205

Post by farrisbris » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:04 PM UTC

jimmaswell wrote: post #97

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See, now I take the opposite view. Denmark may have some fairly onerous taxes, but that seems to be more than made up for by the quality of life, healthcare, education and so on. I have two good friends who moved from UK to Denmark, both high earners with families, neither would consider returning to the UK for a millisecond. As UK austerity continues and Brexit nears I'm thinking of it myself. The USA's ridiculously…

Is a tax a subsidy if you personally find it too low? I find it completely worthwhile "subsidizing" personal vehicles. Everything else just feels oppressive in comparison (barring scenarios like bicycling being faster than the gridlock in Manhattan). Quality of life seems much better to me not being forced into transit or having to bike everywhere, so it makes sense to me for the government to invest in it. How big w…

Subsidizing personal vehicles sounds completely insane and irresponsible to me.

The problem is that everyone ends up with their own vehicle and this gridlocks any road in/out of a city. Which ~big city in the world does not have trafic problems? And what is the average passenger count in those cars. One bus can replace MANY cars. But for some reason i cannot comprehend taking the bus or train seems oppressive to some people. I get this is not an option everywhere but where i live it most definatly is and people still complain about the tolls drivers have to pay to commute into the city and refuse to take the bus/train.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#206

Post by radicalbyte » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:05 PM UTC

IB885588 wrote: post #128

IB885588 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the Life cycle analysis I've seen (don't have the sources handy) have shown that the vast majority of an ICE's car's impact is from the fuel that is burned and not from production, usually around 80% driving and less than 20% production.

If you look at page 29 of this LCA by Audi, you can see that they show an ICE car's impact at about 20% manufacturing, 80% usage, and around 1% recycling at the end of life: https://www.audi.com/content/dam/com/EN/corporate-responsibi...

When the factories and steel production run on green power that 20% will drop very low.

The problem is that the fossil fuel lobby has been exceptionally successful in putting the transition back by 30 years. Had they expended the same energy pivoting to green power then we'd be having a totally different discussion now.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#207

Post by woobar » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:06 PM UTC

ptaipale wrote: post #187

woobar wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that people hold on to cars longer and buy used more And yet the average age of the car in Denmark is 8.9 years [1]. For comparison Germany is at 9.3 year, and US is at 11.6 years [2] [1] http://www.aut.fi/en/statistics/international_statistics/ave... [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/261881/average-age-of-li...

The two sources is different, so it might be good to be wary about comparing them. Could be right though. But anyway, these average ages may be due to little used old cars being taken out of registry, to avoid annual fixed taxes? This has not much impact on the average age of cars used in daily traffic. FWIW, I'm from Finland, also with a history of high car purchase taxes, and the average in above data is almost 12…

It is the same source for Denmark and Germany. Since US is not a part of EU, so I had to come with a different source.

As for your other argument - both reports count "vehicles in use" (ACEA) or "vehicles in operation" (US)

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#208

Post by NeedMoreTea » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:07 PM UTC

xxs wrote: post #175

DerJacques wrote: post #2

While the promise sounds great, it's important to note that no law has actually been passed. Also, incentives to increase sales of electric vehicles are yet to be announced. Denmark's Scandinavian neighbour Norway is on the other side of the spectrum. Heavy subsidisation has caused every 2nd (!) car sold to be electric ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-environment-norway-autos/... ).

Isn't it ironic that most of welfare and subsidies actually come from the oil. Stuff like 25km of under sea tunnel leading to a town with sub 2k population is quite a common sight there. While Norway is an amazing country in many aspects, the amount of oil owned by a state company puts it in a rather unique position.

Is it ironic?

Creating a national investment fund from the oil bonus seems a far better choice than continuing as usual, or using it to pay for tax cuts (1980's UK).

When the oil runs out, or is considered too damaging to use any more, the infrastructure will still be there, and so will the fund.

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#209

Post by Symbiote » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:08 PM UTC

seanalltogether wrote: post #5

Instead of governments announcing bans (I believe france announced a future ban a couple months back), I would rather see these governments committing to only purchasing electric vehicles for all government fleets. Why not put your money were your mouth is and help pump money into the industry via purchasing orders, rather then simply announcing a ban?

For one example [1], Copenhagen is converting the buses and harbour ferries to electric. Already, many of the busiest or most-central routes use LPG or hybrid buses.

Many of the city's other vehicles are electric, for example the vehicles used for collecting litter or moving the workmen who do minor repairs.

That isn't the national government though. I don't know what cars they use.

I don't want to link to the kind of newspapers that report on European royal families, but the crown prince of Denmark takes his children to school/nursery by bicycle. (Last time I saw them, the oldest was riding her own bike.)

[1] https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/copenaghen-purc...

Re: Denmark to ban petrol and diesel car sales by 2030

#210

Post by martin_bech » Wed, Oct 03, 2018, 6:11 PM UTC

daveFNbuck wrote: post #173

martin_bech wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but thats 20% of the 150% so more like 30%. As the system is now, it will be 40% of the 150% by january.

So you're saying the taxes on a 65.200 USD car will increase by 30.000 USD, with only 8.000 USD in discounts to offset the increase?

yes..