Is the Lean Startup Dead? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#201

Post by edanm » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:15 PM UTC

reaperducer wrote: post #76

edanm wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By that definition many unicorns that are seen as prototypes of successful startups would never have been startups. I don't think that's true? Which unicorns are not companies that were pursuing high-growth, or that were trying to build a unique product business model? > I think you have been tricked by YC and other VCs to accept this definition of 'built from the start for hyper-growth'. I haven't been tricked int…

Which unicorns are not companies that were pursuing high-growth, or that were trying to build a unique product business model? Apple? HP? Pretty much every Silicon Valley company that started with one or two guys in in a garage? The definitions of "startup" and "unicorn" seem to be forever evolving. But at one time, both Apple and HP would qualify.

> Apple? HP? Pretty much every Silicon Valley company that started with one or two guys in in a garage?

I mean, Steve Blank's definition as semi-quoted by me included "or were trying to build a unique product business model". I think it's safe to say that Apple was trying to build a unique product business model, as was HP.

In any case, a new law firm is a new company. So were Apple and Facebook. I think it makes sense to differentiate between them, and Steve Blank's definition seems to be the best to me (it focuses on what actually makes all the difference - the amount of foreknowledge you have on the market fit of your product).

> The definitions of "startup" and "unicorn" seem to be forever evolving.

Unicorn is actually a pretty well-defined term in this context. And it's really new, too, something like 5-8 years old if I remember correctly. A private company with a valuation of more than 1 billion dollars..

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#202

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:34 PM UTC

nazgulnarsil wrote: post #195

nostrademons wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to share?

Consumables. The big players are brain dead in terms of product innovation which means you get successful small companies entering all the time. Greek yogurt, deodorant, energy bars (Hi! I'm the cofounder of Mealsquares!), coffee, you name it. Tech founders don't want to touch this stuff.

[deleted]

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#203

Post by tmountain » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:34 PM UTC

nostrademons wrote: post #170

I think the problem with Lean today is that everybody knows about it. Starting a startup in 2002-2005 was hard , just the mechanics of it. Incorporating took several thousand dollars of lawyer time; there was no Clerky, and online LLC-generators were largely unknown. Accepting payments meant getting a merchant account with a CC; no Stripe, Square, or other payment processors. Payroll meant dealing with ADP or PayChex…

Just OOC, what do you recommend as an alternative to ADP for payroll? Didn't know about Clerky. Very cool.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#204

Post by edanm » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:40 PM UTC

JangoSteve wrote: post #172

edanm wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By that definition many unicorns that are seen as prototypes of successful startups would never have been startups. I don't think that's true? Which unicorns are not companies that were pursuing high-growth, or that were trying to build a unique product business model? > I think you have been tricked by YC and other VCs to accept this definition of 'built from the start for hyper-growth'. I haven't been tricked int…

I think you both are arguing two different things. You seem to be saying that there are a lot of businesses, which will never be startups. While that's true, they seem to be saying that being a startup is not an immutable trait of a company, but rather a phase, and that any side project or solo business could enter the startup phase at any time. Sure, most people wouldn't consider a law office to be a startup. Most p…

> While that's true, they seem to be saying that being a startup is not an immutable trait of a company, but rather a phase, and that any side project or solo business could enter the startup phase at any time.

I mostly agree with you, but I don't really agree with this idea. I mean, theoretically, yes, it's true - but I still think it makes sense to differentiate between a new restaurant, and someone trying to create a new technology product/company with billion dollar potential.

And this is what investors are looking for, too, which is why only this kind of startup gets VC money.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#205

Post by edanm » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:42 PM UTC

mindcrime wrote: post #63

edanm wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solo entrepreneurs are not starting a startup, not as I (and most people) understand the term. After all, those thousands of "solo entrepreneurs" are starting things like coffee-shops, restaurants, garages, etc. They're examples of entrepreneurship, sure, but not startups. Startups are specifically organizations that are trying to grow very big, or that are looking to try a new business model. The reason the spotligh…

Solo entrepreneurs are not starting a startup, not as I (and most people) understand the term. After all, those thousands of "solo entrepreneurs" are starting things like coffee-shops, restaurants, garages, etc. They're examples of entrepreneurship, sure, but not startups. Solo entrepreneurs absolutely start things besides coffee shops, restaurants, garages, etc. There is nothing inherent in the definition of "startu…

I absolutely didn't mean to single out solo entrepreneurs here - the comment I was replying to talked about solo etnrepreneurs starting thousands of businesses, I was just making the point that most of these are not "startups" the way I think of them (as per the rest of the discussion).

I may have given the mistaken impression that I was bumping on the solo founders bit, but that has nothing to do with it - I just reused the phrase.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#206

Post by edanm » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:44 PM UTC

1ba9115454 wrote: post #38

edanm wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But you're still left with a lot of people building something they hope gets bigger. That fits your definition. Like you said, this is just arguing semantics. That's why I like Steve Blank's definition, which is not about growth (see my other comment on this thread for more). I would say that "hoping it gets bigger" is not enough - every business owner hopes their business gets bigger. Most of them don't realistica…

> and so many ideas/lessons from the startup world don't really apply to them I'm interested, which wouldn't apply? I mean just a couple of examples.

Well the obvious example is anything related to VC fundraising. Almost all startups (as per Steve Blank / pg) will at some point require venture capital. Most other businesses have no way of raising venture capital, instead having to to rely on other means of fundraising, like a bank loan.

Other things are more domain-specific - I know lots of lessons in my own field (professional services), some of which apply equally to startups, some of which don't at all.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#207

Post by danschumann » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:46 PM UTC

I think it's saturated. Lean goes best with the easy to execute ideas--where a viable product is possible in days or months. Take an animation software program designed for professional artists: it's not possible with only a few features, because it wouldn't be competitive with existing products. You need such a large array of polished features to have any staying power. Let's also say you want to make a product with better core functionality which can't be done with 3rd party add-ons or working with existing software. There's still a lot of opportunity for people willing to work on something for several years before releasing, as long as they aren't taking gambles with their primary value proposition. (Would hate to be wrong after spending that much time) There are still untapped niches where lean works, though, I bet, if that's your calling. My backup, if I'm making a product that people don't use, is to be my own customer, and open an animation shop which uses the software to make animations to sell to people. So if you're not going lean, go for a product you will use (and obviously a product that is useable by only one person[not a social network]) to make money, if people don't buy the product itself. (Ie, if you're making software that makes it easier to host websites, make sure it's software that you would personally use in the case that you can't sell the software, but can still sell the hosting)

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#208

Post by nostrademons » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:47 PM UTC

tmountain wrote: post #203

nostrademons wrote: post #170

I think the problem with Lean today is that everybody knows about it. Starting a startup in 2002-2005 was hard , just the mechanics of it. Incorporating took several thousand dollars of lawyer time; there was no Clerky, and online LLC-generators were largely unknown. Accepting payments meant getting a merchant account with a CC; no Stripe, Square, or other payment processors. Payroll meant dealing with ADP or PayChex…

Just OOC, what do you recommend as an alternative to ADP for payroll? Didn't know about Clerky. Very cool.

Gusto is excellent these days. There are a few other entrants that I'm not terribly familiar with; the market opened up a lot around 2012 or so.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#209

Post by shanebrunette » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:48 PM UTC

pjlegato wrote: post #157

dasil003 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a common pattern with all good ideas. You start with some hard-won ideas and principles that make a lot of sense. The ideas resonate and so they get picked up by a broader and broader set of people. Before long you have second and third tier advocates who are heavy on the Dunning-Kruger effect and short on actual insight. Now you have tons of straw-men for wannabe thought-leaders to rip apart mercilessly. I d…

There should be a name for this pattern, so we can easily refer to it in the future. As you say, it's quite common in business. The Diluted Insight Effect?

Chinese whispers.

Re: Is the Lean Startup Dead?

#210

Post by sologoub » Wed, Sep 05, 2018, 9:53 PM UTC

bborud wrote: post #162

A movement fueled by a book promoter with no notable track record of success for what he is preaching? Yeah, it was a fad. To be fair, Ries stole a lot of nice bits from different schools of thought. There's stuff his books that actually works. But you would have to be soft in the head to think that his book represented wisdom. In fact, wisdom does not come from a book – it comes from reading a lot of books, making a…

Ries did co-found a company in 2004 and that company is still around (14 years later). It’s not a unicorn, but it’s not dead either: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/imvu

Many good methodologies can develop a cult-like following, not just in tech. The “Innovator's Dilemma” was largely that for business schools and MBAs. It doesn’t mean that you cannot apply the ideas postulated, but nothing is a panacea.