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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

bloomberg.com

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#201

Post by colordrops »

azeotropic wrote: post #71
stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

America is not the Bay Area. Those short trips are across town to pick up the kids at school or take them to sports or go grocery shopping or other errands. In the snow. Uphill. Both ways. Nobody is going to use a scooter or an e-bike for that. If someone made an electric minivan, sure, that might soak up most of those trips, but for some reason nobody makes one.

The Model X is sort of an electric minivan, though an expensive one. Cheaper ones are coming. The Pacifica hybrid can get 30 or 40 miles on pure electric.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#202

Post by fh973 »

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

Serious question: what are the "obvious benefits" (from the consumer perspective)?

I can just think of insane acceleration (which is irrelevant for actual use).

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#203

Post by adrianN »

stephengillie wrote: post #162
Zanni wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range will solve this issue. For 18 months I charged my Tesla at Whole Foods, Target, etc, at a paltry 20mph charge rate. When my commute was 40+ miles round trip, that meant I had to charge a couple of times a week for multiple hours. Very frustrating. But when I got my weekly miles under my max range (180 miles) and started using a near-ish high-speed charger, I'd just catch a movie once a week, and my car would be…

My Camry Hybrid can have 500+ miles of range recharged in a few minutes. That's the "killer app" that electric has to beat, one way or another. Spending multiple hours recharging is like driving 30mph on the freeway.

Once it becomes easy to charge your car overnight, e.g. because every street lamp is a charging station, I don't think the charging time matters very much anymore.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#204

Post by adrianN »

yegle wrote: post #90
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

Did government pass laws to force migrating to digital camera back then?

Did film cameras produce toxic fumes that kill thousands every year?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#205

Post by kart23 »

p1mrx wrote: post #26

I'm currently attempting to install an EV charger in my condo carport. The first step was to exchange parking spaces with another owner, in order to get physically close enough to run conduit from my panel. However, I found the property laws surrounding the modification of assigned parking spaces to be pretty murky. It'd be nice if there were a state/nation-wide effort to clarify this sort of transaction, because lot…

The question is not who will let you, but who will stop you.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#206

Post by cft »

fh973 wrote: post #202
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

Serious question: what are the "obvious benefits" (from the consumer perspective)? I can just think of insane acceleration (which is irrelevant for actual use).

None now, but I can envision that vehicle simplicity relative to the gas powered one (simpler engine and no transmission) will eventually mean lower price and lower repair costs.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#207

Post by bradgessler »

fh973 wrote: post #202
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

Serious question: what are the "obvious benefits" (from the consumer perspective)? I can just think of insane acceleration (which is irrelevant for actual use).

Lower maintenance requirements and costs.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#208

Post by kart23 »

Entangled wrote: post #60

Wake me up when I can get an electric two-seater like this [1] or this [2] for under ten grand. No A/C, no windows, no nothing, just a cool buggy to run errands and cruise all day in sunny Florida. https://i.imgur.com/gQDPqOn.jpg https://i.imgur.com/tCXxiRm.jpg

That would be kinda fun as a project. Buy a tesla battery/motor from a salvage, and put it into a miata or other kit car.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#209

Post by adrianN »

stellar678 wrote: post #35

They neglected a huge part of the coming electric vehicle picture: lightweight, slow-speed electric vehicles. Almost 60% of US car trips are 5 miles or shorter. (2017 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/ae/work/Job63697.html , 2009 ref: https://nhts.ornl.gov/tables09/fatcat/2009/vt_TRPMILES.html ) Scooters, e-bikes, and electric cargo bikes (not to mention the human-powered versions!) will soak up an enormous portion…

Not if the car lobby can help it. Think of the jobs!

Case in point: E-Bikes in Germany. You can either buy an e-assist bike that is allowed on bike paths and doesn't cost tax. Those are limited to 200W and 25km/h. That means you still impede traffic in 30km/h zones where people typically drive 35-40. Or you can spend more and get an S-Pedelec. That costs tax, isn't allowed on bike paths, and needs a driver's license. It can go 45km/h, meaning that you still impede traffic on normal 50km/h streets where people usually drive 55-60. All other electric vehicles, scooters, longboards and the like are either illegal or limited to slow speeds (12km/h I think?).

To me it seems fairly obvious to me that these regulations were made to prevent competition with cars. The rules for S-Pedelecs are the same as for small motorcycles, the previous big competitor to cars in cities.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#210

Post by l0b0 »

fh973 wrote: post #202
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

Serious question: what are the "obvious benefits" (from the consumer perspective)? I can just think of insane acceleration (which is irrelevant for actual use).

Right-now benefits: Dirt cheap to charge (especially in countries where fossil fuel isn't subsidised). Cheaper taxes in several countries. Not contributing tons of CO2 and various toxins to the environment every year. Less dependency on a secondary energy distribution network.

Possible benefits: Simpler engines should lead to lower production costs, more reliability and simpler, cheaper repairs.

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