Earlier quoted context omitted.
... if I mention that very obvious deflationary fixed supply asset I will get downvoted into oblivion on Hacker News.
I think its inflationary actually (beyond the current speculation). Consider that the miners will always produce a selling pressure on cryptocurrency (because equipment+electricity+labor costs), it stands to reason that cryptocurrencies will always have more sellers than buyers (again no new speculatary buyers for store of value, just pure currency as it was intended initially). This constant selling pressure will ad…
The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
201–210 of 223 posts
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#202I'm not familiar with a world where interest rates and inflation aren't low. What should I expect?
For starters, the present value of all long-lived assets will come down -- stocks, bonds, real estate, you name it. As Warren Buffett explains: "[Interest rates] act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter: The higher the rate, the greater the downward pull. That's because the rates of return that investors need from any kind of investment are directly tied to the risk-free rate that they can earn from…
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree completely. Everything I buy has gotten much, much more expensive, food, housing, transportation etc. Not 2%/yr more like >5%/yr. The CPI is rigged. Probably in favor of those who must payout relative to it.
Going from "I see higher inflation" to "a nationwide measure is rigged" is a big leap.
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just because housing prices in NYC and healthcare costs have risen fast doesn't mean inflation is high. This is why we calculate these numbers using a broad basket of various goods and assets.
Sure, but housing prices (nearly everywhere) have risen fast and healthcare costs (nearly everywhere) have risen fast. Education and Child Care have too. The criticism isn't "inflation should be based on NYC rent." The criticism is "the basket of goods weighs nice-to-haves too highly, and important needs like rent/healthcare/education too low". So while inflation (as officially defined by the consumer price index) is…
If you are going say "but the CPI does measure things that way" you are right. It has been well observed that the CPI had been looking more and more like a cost of living index for years (eg, the hedonics changes). This is why the GDP deflator is used more often to gauge inflation now, except it only come out quarterly with the GDP figures.
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
For starters, the present value of all long-lived assets will come down -- stocks, bonds, real estate, you name it. As Warren Buffett explains: "[Interest rates] act on financial valuations the way gravity acts on matter: The higher the rate, the greater the downward pull. That's because the rates of return that investors need from any kind of investment are directly tied to the risk-free rate that they can earn from…
> the present value of all long-lived assets will come down That's not true for at least the last two asset bubbles. Interest rates were 4-5% leading up to '07 housing bubble and 5-6% leading up to '00 stock market bubble. Inflation was mostly higher than now, in the 2-4% range.
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
I recall a time of nearly 20% interest rates here in Australia a few decades ago. As far as I can remember, it was all just business as normal for most people. It all comes down to just how much debt you own. If I recall, people who were highly leveraged or had negatively geared property were hit the hardest. People with actual savings in the bank were actually happy with their interest returns being so high. Househo…
You missed it. It's subtle but it's a really, really big effect worth understanding. You really wanted to have as much debt as you could service without going bankrupt. Australia had a massive redistribution of wealth from savers to borrowers. As long as you didn't become insolvent the more debt you had invested the richer you got. Borrow $100k as long as your salary kept going up so you could make the payments every…
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
You missed it. It's subtle but it's a really, really big effect worth understanding. You really wanted to have as much debt as you could service without going bankrupt. Australia had a massive redistribution of wealth from savers to borrowers. As long as you didn't become insolvent the more debt you had invested the richer you got. Borrow $100k as long as your salary kept going up so you could make the payments every…
> You really wanted to have as much debt as you could service without going bankrupt. This is an interesting thought. I have mostly heard this advice for corporate. Companies are encouraged to take on as much leverage as they can without affecting their bottom line. But I never thought it can be applied to personal saving and market crashes too. I had couple of questions - how do you calculate debt or leverage at per…
> how do you calculate debt or leverage at personal level?
Can you make the payments? Chances of not making them next year etc. So much personally specific stuff in that there can be no rule of thumb. Is your job secure? Will your wages go up? How is your risk appetite? Why do you want more money - what do you want to spend it on, when, etc.
> wouldn't the savings increase as well?
You have $100k, you buy US Govt. Bonds with a 10 year term and an expectation of low inflation. Inflation rips (surprise!), your 100k buys a lot less stuff in 10 years time. The 5% coupon doesn't cushion that blow much. If the inflation is anticipated then you would have a very high yield on 10 year us govt bonds and there is no redistribution of wealth between borrowers and lenders. You get back a sum of money that buys a similar amount of stuff.
I've just described the simplest case with fixed coupon long term bonds, you can make it more complex with variable interest rate accounts or whatever and you'll see unanticipated inflation always is a redistribution to borrowers from lenders. "Pay off your loan with worthless currency." "Remember when you could get a beer for under $100?" Sounds ridiculous now, right? $10 beers used to be equally ridiculous.
>Should you look to increase your leverage in times of high interest or a low one?
No easy answer. Depends on your circumstances and preferences. If you do increase your leverage, can make the payments and your investment is an inflation hedge, unanticipated inflation is a win for you if that's what you want. There is additional risk involved, obviously. Putting money in the bank is almost certainly a losing proposition. In addition to the redistribution to borrowers the increased interest payments are taxed so you're going backwards. think 2% real interest 10% inflation for a bank interest rate of 12%. Well you're taxed on all %12. So some part of that 10% to compensate for inflation goes to the taxman and you're losing purchasing power of your capital.
> And lastly, how do you find assets which aren't hit by inflation?
Most assets are some kind of hedge against inflation. NOT bonds, obviously. But equities will likely be so, gold, real estate, antiques & jewellery. Think of an asset's price as a percentage of the average annual salary. If inflation rips will that percentage of salary change? Much? Why? With bonds the answer is yes and the reasons are pretty straight forward. With housing, rent is likely to be a fairly fixed percentage of salary, salaries double in nominal terms, rent will likely do the same. (But do consider what else is going on in an economy when inflation takes off, will the plant shut down making that place a slum? Likely it's more subtle than that). Buying an equity of a company that has sales, will their sale prices keep pace with inflation? You'd imagine McDonalds would, for example. Will their sales qty drop in an economy with high inflation is also worth considering and is a trickier question to get right. I'm partial to S&P500 index tracking funds, they're popular nowadays too. Obviously equities can crash in value over the short to medium term.
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#208I'm not familiar with a world where interest rates and inflation aren't low. What should I expect?
The average savings account interests are currently around 0.02% APY. Those kinds of numbers make savings accounts meaningless--people just use them as a second account to help their budgeting. CDs are not much better, at 2.5% for a 5-year.
Compare that to 8% APY for savings accounts and 12% APY 5-year CDs in the 1980s, and you'll understand why they exist at all. People actually had a reason to chose interest-bearing savings accounts.
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the US around 65% of households own their home. A collapse of the housing market would be catastrophic for their finances. I'm sure this is true of other countries as well. You might argue that many people don't actually own their home since they still have a large mortgage, but this just makes the situation worse: now you have a mortgage that's more than your house is worth.
It wouldn't make any difference to those who own their homes outright, unless they were planning on trading up, in which case is it would be a positive, or down, a negative. Those who overleveraged could indeed find themselves in difficulty, however I fully expect they will get bailed out by the very people they priced out of the market by overbidding.
Re: The Era of Very Low Inflation and Interest Rates May Be Near an End
#210But I just do NOT believe things are going to change. Guess we will see.