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Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

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Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#201

Post by MattRix »

forgotpwtomain wrote: post #178
dmix wrote: post #120

Tesla recently announced they are ramping up their Model 3 production even more than what some people thought was already optimistic numbers: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-27/tesla-mod... > For Musk to hit all of his targets, Tesla would need to build about 430,000 Model 3s by the end of next year. That’s more than all of the electric cars sold planet-wide last year. > Even if half of the Model 3 in…

> environment as well It's not going to do anything great for the environment and we've been over this on previous Tesla threads (years ago). Driving electric cars instead of hybrids in areas where the electricity is primarily derived from unclean sources is not better than hybrids for the environment.

Not better in the short term, but still better in the long term, as it leads to greater adoption of electric cars, etc.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#202

Post by mikeash »

vkou wrote: post #174
mikeash wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a pretty decent market for used Model Ss out there. It's not huge, since Model Ss of sufficient age don't exist in great numbers, but it's not too bad. I've been looking at cheaper used EVs for a second car. There are lots of used LEAFs out there, some Smart EDs, and a couple of Focus Electrics, which look really nice if you don't mind the short range, but aren't very popular at all. These cars seem to drop i…

One of the reasons for why there are so many used LEAFs on the market, is that a lot of EV early adopters sold their Leaf to buy a Tesla. If you wanted an EV, and could afford it, the specs on the Model S are much better. This is not really great news for the low-end EV market, though - if the average person isn't interested in a midly used Keep in mind that after years of making cars, Tesla is still struggling with…

> This is not really great news for the low-end EV market, though - if the average person isn't interested in a midly used I don't understand this. The Personally, I've stopped looking at the far superior.

Tesla has no trouble selling Model Ss and Xs today even though they start at $68,000 and go up well into the 100s. They have a metaphorical line out the door for the Model 3. Tesla is struggling with quality control and such, and it could come back to bite them down the road, but it's not making it hard for them to find customers now.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#203

Post by elihu »

mikeash wrote: post #118
timr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the reason GM "doesn't care" about the Volt (I'm exaggerating here; they obviously care a little bit ) is because they're rational: electric cars are not popular with mass-market consumers, and it's far from clear that they're going to become popular. GM is investing in what sells, and right now (i.e. for the last decade or two), that's SUVs and light trucks. Which doesn't bode well for Tesla, at least in t…

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

> GM is investing in what sells today. Tesla is investing in what might sell in a decade or two.

It seems to me that the Bolt and Model 3 should be pretty similar in terms of cost, range, and price. The main difference is the Tesla brand / visual design and probably more self-driving tech in the Model 3. Am I missing something?

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#204

Post by vvanders »

elihu wrote: post #203
mikeash wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

> GM is investing in what sells today. Tesla is investing in what might sell in a decade or two. It seems to me that the Bolt and Model 3 should be pretty similar in terms of cost, range, and price. The main difference is the Tesla brand / visual design and probably more self-driving tech in the Model 3. Am I missing something?

Superchargers.

I regularly make a ~300mi roundtrip with our Tesla, I wouldn't own one today if that wasn't possible.

[edit]

Before anyone brings up ChaDeMo(I have the adapter), SAE combo neither are nearly as fast(120kW) in real-world use and have nearly as much market penetration.

The super-charger network is also something that's planned and built-out with the intention of being to make the major arterials rather than having a patchwork of various companies providing chargers.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#205

Post by jd20 »

dmix wrote: post #120

Tesla recently announced they are ramping up their Model 3 production even more than what some people thought was already optimistic numbers: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-27/tesla-mod... > For Musk to hit all of his targets, Tesla would need to build about 430,000 Model 3s by the end of next year. That’s more than all of the electric cars sold planet-wide last year. > Even if half of the Model 3 in…

One thing I've wondered about this: exactly what data is Tesla able to collect from the vehicles on the road? I've not found this on their website, nor any way to opt-out of data collection. For a vehicle with an always-on camera and cellular connection that can't be shut off, you'd think more people would be concerned about this.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#206

Post by chronicx0 »

flexie wrote: post #191
hueving wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla. I think Tesla will sell millions of Model 3. Which other car is 400,000 people waiting patiently to buy for two years, even putting down a $1,000 deposit? Tesla is doing to traditional car manufacturers what Apple did to Nokia.

> I can't think of any product I'd rather have than a Tesla.

Jesus Christ, you really bought into the Tesla hype.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#207

Post by mikeash »

elihu wrote: post #203
mikeash wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

> GM is investing in what sells today. Tesla is investing in what might sell in a decade or two. It seems to me that the Bolt and Model 3 should be pretty similar in terms of cost, range, and price. The main difference is the Tesla brand / visual design and probably more self-driving tech in the Model 3. Am I missing something?

The Bolt can't really make road trips because the fast charging network it can use is pretty bad. (That's in the US. Supposedly Europe is a lot better in this respect.) Even where the facilities exist, the Bolt's charging rate is about half of what Tesla can do.

The self-driving/driver-assistance tech gulf is pretty big. The Bolt is fairly basic, while the Model 3 will have at least Tesla's Autopilot 2 hardware, which they say will be sufficient for full self-driving once the software is done. Even if that doesn't work out, it'll have excellent traffic-aware cruise control and lane keeping at the least.

I'd say the brand is also fairly important. Not (just) because Tesla is "cool," but because Tesla is committed. Supposedly GM is planning for something like 50,000 Bolts per year, so it seems like yet another car where dealers will try to steer you to a nice pickup truck or something instead, and finding someone willing to service it could be tough.

Putting it all together, and it seems like GM is putting their toe in the water, while Tesla is balls-to-the-wall (forgive the mixed metaphor).

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#208

Post by philmcc »

wfunction wrote: post #167
hueving wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

> Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything. I feel this is going to be the killer for them.

I disagree. The backlog will be so long, that there will almost certainly be someone who will pay for your spot in line.

The same thing happened with the S and the X. "Flipping" a 3 won't be difficult.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#209

Post by mikeash »

vvanders wrote: post #204
elihu wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> GM is investing in what sells today. Tesla is investing in what might sell in a decade or two. It seems to me that the Bolt and Model 3 should be pretty similar in terms of cost, range, and price. The main difference is the Tesla brand / visual design and probably more self-driving tech in the Model 3. Am I missing something?

Superchargers. I regularly make a ~300mi roundtrip with our Tesla, I wouldn't own one today if that wasn't possible. [edit] Before anyone brings up ChaDeMo(I have the adapter), SAE combo neither are nearly as fast(120kW) in real-world use and have nearly as much market penetration. The super-charger network is also something that's planned and built-out with the intention of being to make the major arterials rather t…

Non-Tesla fast charging stations also tend to be broken a lot, and are installed in small numbers, often single units. It's tough to plan a trip where you need a charge at a particular location when you could be screwed if a single spot is occupied or out of order. Most Tesla locations are 6 spots or more, and they're much better about fixing them when they break.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#210

Post by slg »

Matt3o12_ wrote: post #171
hueving wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or withdrawals from people. The deposits are non-committal so people can cancel without losing anything.

Well, they lost access to $1,000 until they cancel (plus 3-6 weeks, since it can allegedly take Tesla this long to refund the money). I don't think 400,000 have just $1,000 to spare for a really anything they will just cancel. The $1,000 mean that the person who reserved it really wanted the car and is unlikely to just refund it unless they have a very good reason to do so.

I think the commitment of $1000 is overblown. What is the actual opportunity cost here? Maybe $50-$150 depending on the interest rate and time frame you want to use for your estimates. That is nothing in the scale of a car purchase and it buys you the right to receive the car several months quicker. Relatively speaking it is like someone paying $10 to have a new laptop shipped to them overnight instead of by ground except the shipping has been prepurchased a year before the laptop.

If you aren't the type of person who can find a spare $1000, you also probably shouldn't be the type of person who spends $30,000 on a car.

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