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Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

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Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#201

Post by WalterBright »

mcphage wrote: post #184
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cars are a terrible industry to get into. Building cars is massively capital and plant intensive, heavily dependent on supply chain logistics, and the market is already extremely competitive. The entire industry is well on its way to switching to electric and/or self-driving. Selling cars requires a huge dealer network rollout with huge up-front costs for training and spares. Doing it DIY would be insanely expensive,…

> Cars are a terrible industry to get into. Building cars is massively capital and plant intensive, heavily dependent on supply chain logistics, and the market is already extremely competitive. That sounds perfect for Apple, though—they've got tons of capital, excellent at supply chain logistics, and used to thriving in very competitive markets.

Many car startups have been ground to pieces due to it costing more than their investors ever imagined - Tucker, Bricklin, Delorean, etc.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#202

Post by scottmf »

coredog64 wrote: post #190
mrcwinn wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember the "iPhone" being a topic of rumor for literally years. Leaked photos (some more accurate than others) and a steady drip of information. Looking back, it was still a big surprise once the details were known. So, a car? Build a roof, sign some NDAs, and do your best.

I was at On Semiconductor in 2007, and it was an open secret around the office that Apple was getting into the phone business. We knew because management kept touting the fact that we had $4-5 worth of the overall BOM in the iPhone and that was going to be awesome for us.

iPhone was announced Jan 2007

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#203

Post by stevewilhelm »

I don't think Apple would necessarily have to build their own cars from scratch or solve the alternative fuel issue or deliver a self-driving car to have a significant impact on the automobile industry.

For example, I would personally love a Subaru that had its information and entertainment systems designed and built by Apple and licensed to Subaru. It would also be cool if Apple's designers helped with the overall exterior and interior design.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#204

Post by murukesh_s »

baron816 wrote: post #200

I don't like the idea of Apple (or even Google for that matter) making cars. It seems like such a weird space for a company that makes consumer electronics parts to move into. It would be almost as weird as them starting to build houses. And I don't want to buy all my stuff from one company. Either way, I'm skeptical that any company is going to make huge, monopolistic profits from selling autonomous cars. It's somet…

"the last consumer electronic product" - loved that part..

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#205

Post by gomox »

stevewilhelm wrote: post #203

I don't think Apple would necessarily have to build their own cars from scratch or solve the alternative fuel issue or deliver a self-driving car to have a significant impact on the automobile industry. For example, I would personally love a Subaru that had its information and entertainment systems designed and built by Apple and licensed to Subaru. It would also be cool if Apple's designers helped with the overall e…

Ha. If anyone can make a Subaru pretty and user-friendly it's the guys that originally made Unix work as a desktop OS.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#206

Post by manmal »

baron816 wrote: post #200

I don't like the idea of Apple (or even Google for that matter) making cars. It seems like such a weird space for a company that makes consumer electronics parts to move into. It would be almost as weird as them starting to build houses. And I don't want to buy all my stuff from one company. Either way, I'm skeptical that any company is going to make huge, monopolistic profits from selling autonomous cars. It's somet…

Do you believe that we will have robots as shown in movies, now that Moore's law is grinding to a halt?

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#207

Post by dragontamer »

marvin wrote: post #163
dragontamer wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, Tesla has had only one profitable quarter since 2003, its founding. Last quarter, they had 1.4 Billion in cash and had a $280 Million shortfall. In ONE quarter. That's AFTER accounting for the +$350 Million-ish they brought in from the Model 3 pre-orders btw. I don't think they are going to repeat the +350ish thousand preorders at +$1000 cash per anytime soon.

This doesn't give a completely accurate picture of Tesla's financial situation. Tesla has MASSIVE capital expenditures and will continue to have so for years. They could probably become quite profitable on a quarter-to-quarter basis by stopping all new development and manufacturing investments, but this would kill their possibility of becoming a major auto manufacturer. The gross margin on Model S is indeed 25%, and…

I disagree.

Tesla only had to go Model S -> Model 3, just as originally planned, and they'd be much more profitable than today. Model X, despite its 25% margins or so, isn't making money due to manufacturing issues. Its too complicated with its Falcon doors, and doesn't really have an impact from a sales or marketing perspective.

Instead, Tesla spends billions ramping up Model X, only for GM Bolt to release before the Tesla Model 3. BMW and other companies are catching up as well.

Even the Nissan Leaf may release a 200+ mile model before Tesla's Model 3, all because of the delays incurred with the Model X divergence.

I really think the Model X divergence was a mistake. If Model 3 launched just a year earlier with more money in the bank, Tesla would be in a much healthier position.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#208

Post by jimmytidey »

Joeri wrote: post #189
jimmytidey wrote: post #159

Isn't it basically impossible for Apple to surprise us with a driverless car? Surely all of the process to make a driverless car legal would be in public? Surely the production line for any kind of car at all would be almost impossible to organise covertly, all the factory space, tooling etc?

The iphone needed to be fcc certified too, they just announced it 6 months prior to selling it to keep the element of surprise.

Getting a phone certified is surely quite a bit different from an autonomous car ready for consumer use?

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#209

Post by neo2006 »

ZenoArrow wrote: post #196
neo2006 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a naive way to see things. Creating products and advancing technology are two different things and very often the one do not lead to the other. To create that business model based on technologies breakthroughs you need to have "the dare to fail" mindset and be willing to launch multiple fails before succeeding with one product, that's not Apple way of doing things there business model and reputation is based…

It's not naive, you just can't predict the ROI.

What I was calling naive is the fact of seeing innovation and creating products as the same thing, it's not.

Re: Apple R&D Reveals a Pivot Is Coming

#210

Post by tedmiston »

geekery wrote: post #182
beloch wrote: post #37

According to this chart, Apple spent $6B in 2014 and is projected to spend just over $10B in 2016. For comparison, in 2014 Volkswagen spent $13.5B, Samsung spent $13.4B, and Microsoft spent $10.4B. [1] Apple has, historically, not been a big spender when it comes to research, tending to favor short-term, tightly focused research over long-term, curiosity driven research. Over the last few years their research budget…

He's not wrong about the car. Apple filed a patent in October for MONITORING A MOBILE DEVICE EN ROUTE TO DESTINATION (20160112837) along with a handful of other image processing/camera related patents. So maybe they are developing a car, maybe they are just amping up their IP for the impending shift of tides. However, MacRumors mentions an electric car possibility: Project Titan http://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple…

Apple files plenty of IP that never turns into a product.
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