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China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#21

Post by crdb »

victorhooi wrote: post #20
crdb wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The factory workers are as unlikely to be "out of work" as the female population post-the power loom replacing their daily work as thread spinners. Manufacturing is already moving out of China and into cheaper countries. No economy is truly a zero sum game and China is no different. In 2 generations - even if there are some troubled waters in between - these factory workers' children will be white collar workers or e…

Have you taken a look at Japan recently? They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards , and shrinking. That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)

Would you say the average Japanese today is worse off than in say, 1948?

This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#22

Post by qyv »

nugget wrote: post #3

If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they…

Perhaps the technological singularity that we end up facing is not one of AI but one of nation-scale automation?

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#23

Post by NicoJuicy »

bduerst wrote: post #4
nugget wrote: post #3

If you think structural unemployment due to automation will be a problem in the US, just wait until 500 million Chinese factory workers are put out of work. A generation ago they may have been content to remain in poverty and ignorance but now, like the sans-culottes of 18th century Paris, they know what else is out there. There's a reason many wealthy Chinese desperately want to expatriate and it's not because they…

China has had a rising middle class for a while now, and just like with the agricultural automation brought on by the combustion engine, their manufacturing laborers will shift into service, skilled, technical, and professional positions.

So 500 million unemployed people will suddenly become skilled, technical and professional without education? I don't think so.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#25

Post by knz42 »

Have the workers own the robots, not the elite of company executives. Then redistribute the profits made by the robots to their new owners.

The idea of having the workers own the means of production is hardly new, it's just not very popular in the West. Not surprising that the NYTimes missed mentioning that entirely. It would be deliciously ironic if socialist China was the nation that would show the rest of the world how to deal with pervasive automation socially and economically.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#26

Post by LoSboccacc »

harigov wrote: post #12
DickingAround wrote: post #2

It's going to be really weird if China's ruling 'socialist' party ends up being forced to become an actual neo-socialism with things like a guaranteed stipend because there are not enough actual jobs to do... This whole automation revolution has really just begun to highlight the old problem that many people don't own any of the things that generate the fabulous, effort-free wealth. But now instead of people missing…

The body/mind they expected to be able to rent out has literally no value as an asset. Agreed. I wonder if the concept of job makes sense anymore.

Job will still make sense for a while, but as society we need to prepare better for the future.

The world is changing and we're still debating if our youth should get less education and benefits or if we should let in more immigrant so we can compete on labor prices on the global market. That's so short sighted!

That train left long ago, and it was pointless to try to board anyway. If the ruling elite would stop for a second being such assholes toward anyone, treating everybody not up the chain as 'resources', maybe they could focus to be competitive in the world of tomorrow.

Most unskilled/unqualified job will just vanish overnight at some point in the near future, and then what? we're still under-educating our youths. industrial automation, robotics and artificial-x will be the field that will drive innovation in the next 20 years.

if your country is still not pushing for them to be in the curriculum of everyone, prepare to be facing loads unemployment problems down the road. avoidable problems, dare I say.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#27

Post by muddyrivers »

functional_test wrote: post #6
bduerst wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has had a rising middle class for a while now, and just like with the agricultural automation brought on by the combustion engine, their manufacturing laborers will shift into service, skilled, technical, and professional positions.

Did you actually read the article? Here's the most relevant quote: > The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained une…

I think this statement is not completely accurate.

First, it doesn't factor in the expansion of higher education in the last 20 years. I don't have the statistics at hand, so I will just use my hometown as an example. Exactly 20 years ago, ~120 high school students from my hometown were enrolled into colleges (including both 4- and 3-years colleges). This year, approximately ~1400 will enter colleges this fall semester. That is more than 10 times. Note the total number of people of ~18 years old hasn't been increased. On the contrary, I think it is decreased, as a result of one-child policy.

Second, I think it has become common that countries, including USA, have been struggling to create enough white-collar jobs. I have both current and ex- colleagues who graduated from Ivy Leagues and are/working in customer service, support, marketing associates, etc. What they majored in colleges, like English, Classics, Psychology, etc. really doesn't help them much on looking for their first or second jobs. It is similar in China, but I wouldn't say it is worse or better there.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#28

Post by cbd1984 »

knz42 wrote: post #25

Have the workers own the robots, not the elite of company executives. Then redistribute the profits made by the robots to their new owners. The idea of having the workers own the means of production is hardly new, it's just not very popular in the West. Not surprising that the NYTimes missed mentioning that entirely. It would be deliciously ironic if socialist China was the nation that would show the rest of the worl…

> Have the workers own the robots

How do you prevent them from getting bought out?

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#29

Post by anabis »

knz42 wrote: post #25

Have the workers own the robots, not the elite of company executives. Then redistribute the profits made by the robots to their new owners. The idea of having the workers own the means of production is hardly new, it's just not very popular in the West. Not surprising that the NYTimes missed mentioning that entirely. It would be deliciously ironic if socialist China was the nation that would show the rest of the worl…

> Have the workers own the robots I am pretty sure that workers are free to buy publically traded stock.

I also would probably not invest if I were in their position.

Re: China’s Troubling Robot Revolution

#30

Post by EGreg »

anabis wrote: post #29
knz42 wrote: post #25

Have the workers own the robots, not the elite of company executives. Then redistribute the profits made by the robots to their new owners. The idea of having the workers own the means of production is hardly new, it's just not very popular in the West. Not surprising that the NYTimes missed mentioning that entirely. It would be deliciously ironic if socialist China was the nation that would show the rest of the worl…

> Have the workers own the robots I am pretty sure that workers are free to buy publically traded stock. I also would probably not invest if I were in their position.

That was Karl Marx's whole solution. Make the workers own the factories.

We have a better way of socializing wealth. It's called the public stock market. Workers can buy shares of any corporation on it, not just their own, and they are protected by regulations.

Having said that, I think that we should tax the machines. We are building a cage for ourselves with machines empowering organizations to monitor and control us better. Like China making a rating for every citizen. Organizations aren't people and they use people to perpetuate themselves - those people who have other ideas (like "enviroentalism" or "concern for the elderly") have to acquiesce to the corporation's interests first. And with machines, the corporations will pursue profits ahead of loyalty to workers.

My point is, we should use our democratic governments to tax the corporations for benefiting from automation, and redistribute the money to the population as unconditional basic income. As machines replace people I won't need those taxi drivers and mcdonalds workers to do anything for me. I want them to have a check coming so they can educate themselves or just go consume things they need.

It would also be nice if countries would quit being in the mindset that every generation must be more numerous than the last - social security will be taken care of by increased automation, while overpopulation is not something you can take care of that easily.

Want everyone to be richer and better off? Have less kids.

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