Earlier quoted context omitted.
Systems like Ceph are great replacements for RAID. Instead of matching a handful of drives together in a set, each drive is a member of thousands of Placement Groups. When a drive fails, all the placement groups that a drive belongs to must be rebuilt, but this is spread over all the drives in your system, and not just a small subset. So if you have a 100 drive cluster, each drive does on average 1/100 of the work to…
A Drive still needs 15 hours to rebuild though, so still the same amount of work. You just have more redundancy with Ceph, and don't have the ticking time bomb of losing an entire array if you don't complete the rebuild before another drive in the array goes. Also, does Ceph distribute it's objects so that two drives don't contain the same set of objects? I.E. it's probabilistically impossible that a number of drives…
And yes, in the clusters I've built I've always calculated what the chances are that X simultaneous drive failures will take out any data, and it's always been astronomically low.