On the Pricing of Apple Watch • Hacker News Board

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#21

Post by djrogers » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:10 PM UTC

gjoeworm wrote: post #2

I think his $5k estimate is much stronger than his $20k estimate. An Apple Editions is not a Patek Phillippe. There is a dramatically different replacement cycle which means that any attempt to cut and paste lux strategies is going to either fail entirely, or narrow the market so thoroughly as to be indistinguishable from failure.

The $20k estimate is for an edition watch with a gold link bracelet, which would presumably outlive the watch itself. Without the gold bracelet his estimate is a $10k starting point, which seems crazy but China.

I'd also expect one of two things to surface here - either the watch forever remains so incredibly lightweight in what it can do without the phone that upgrades are less necessary, or there will be an upgrade program for the expensive watches.

If there's an upgrade program (i.e. replace the S1 with S2/3/4 and upgrade the battery yearly) then I'd actually expect these gen1 edition watches to become quite the collector's items - especially a few years from now when there are only a handful of gen1s around but far more gen2/3/4 watches.

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#22

Post by Shivetya » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:12 PM UTC

jljljl wrote: post #19

CJefferson wrote: post #5

There is one massive different with usual watches. Expensive watches are often sold under the idea you will never have to buy another watch, and neither will your children, or your children's children. I will reasonably surprised if any new Apple Watch hasn't been made forcibly obsolete by Apple within 5 years or so, and shocked if it is still functional in 10. Furthermore (and more worrying perhaps for people paying…

There is speculation in some circles that Apple will offer a servicing program, in which the S1 could be removed and replaced with the next generation SoC for the Apple watches. Also just me speculating here: For the high end watches, it might be reasonable for Apple to include some number of SoC upgrades as part of their package.

which would be highly unlikely because when has Apple ever done that for its current consumer items? The iPod, iPad, and iPhone, have all been user pays the cost to replace when a new model drops.

I think some people are just trying to justify an expensive purchase they have already decided to buy. If it was a wholly stand alone device I might under stand its pricing but as it stands now I do not.

If the article prices are to be believe then this is pure pretentious pricing, going for the vain and honestly after owning Apple products for so long boy have I met some of the most vain people on Earth. (the number of gold colored phones that sold is amazing/depressing)

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#23

Post by eof » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:14 PM UTC

radley wrote: post #13

A $20k (or even $5k) gold Apple watch will be a litmus test for me - anyone I encounter will automatically be someone I wouldn't do business with. The idea of a gold Apple watch is akin to gold-plated cars / guns for drug dealers. The only value it adds it to show you have money. The fact that Apple would even consider it only demonstrate the corrosion of values and vision to me.

basically everything in traditional business atire is just demonstration of wealth if you really dig into it.

what about the other ten thousand solid/plated gold watches? rolex watches containing gold are probably all over wrists of people you would be happy to do business with.

don't get me wrong.. 5k for an iwatch is ridiculous

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#24

Post by jljljl » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:15 PM UTC

jljljl wrote: post #19

CJefferson wrote: post #5

There is one massive different with usual watches. Expensive watches are often sold under the idea you will never have to buy another watch, and neither will your children, or your children's children. I will reasonably surprised if any new Apple Watch hasn't been made forcibly obsolete by Apple within 5 years or so, and shocked if it is still functional in 10. Furthermore (and more worrying perhaps for people paying…

There is speculation in some circles that Apple will offer a servicing program, in which the S1 could be removed and replaced with the next generation SoC for the Apple watches. Also just me speculating here: For the high end watches, it might be reasonable for Apple to include some number of SoC upgrades as part of their package.

@Shivetya: All other Apple products have been priced appropriately given the lack of upgrading or service available for the product. Additionally, Watches are an entirely different product category from consumer electronics, and they carry different expectations on pricing + product longevity.

I have no plans to purchase an Edition, nor do I have any clue about how Apple plans to sell them. I'm just trying to provide insight into how Apple might make this work.

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#25

Post by jmsdnns » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:16 PM UTC

nicpottier wrote: post #7

CJefferson wrote: post #5

There is one massive different with usual watches. Expensive watches are often sold under the idea you will never have to buy another watch, and neither will your children, or your children's children. I will reasonably surprised if any new Apple Watch hasn't been made forcibly obsolete by Apple within 5 years or so, and shocked if it is still functional in 10. Furthermore (and more worrying perhaps for people paying…

Yes, exactly, this seems so obvious that I don't understand why Gruber is ignoring it. The iWatch will be obsolete in 24 months at most (less if you are the type who values status and want a "$20,000" watch as the next model will probably come out 12-18 months later) Maybe there are enough uber-rich people that are ok buying $20,000 watches every year, but that seems like a really, really small market. Then again, ma…

Phones were once something you bought once and rarely bought again, but that changed and now we all buy new phones once every 2'ish years.

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#26

Post by puranjay » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:18 PM UTC

CJefferson wrote: post #5

There is one massive different with usual watches. Expensive watches are often sold under the idea you will never have to buy another watch, and neither will your children, or your children's children. I will reasonably surprised if any new Apple Watch hasn't been made forcibly obsolete by Apple within 5 years or so, and shocked if it is still functional in 10. Furthermore (and more worrying perhaps for people paying…

I'm absolutely amazed that Gruber and the smart folks who read him have missed this.

My dad has a Rolex. It belonged to his dad. My eldest brother will likely inherit it one day.

That Rolex is a family heirloom. It's style is timeless (sorry) and it isn't going to run out of RAM or processing power anytime soon.

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#27

Post by puranjay » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:19 PM UTC

radley wrote: post #16

CJefferson wrote: post #5

There is one massive different with usual watches. Expensive watches are often sold under the idea you will never have to buy another watch, and neither will your children, or your children's children. I will reasonably surprised if any new Apple Watch hasn't been made forcibly obsolete by Apple within 5 years or so, and shocked if it is still functional in 10. Furthermore (and more worrying perhaps for people paying…

The idea he presented previously is that you'd be able to go in to Apple and upgrade the tech innards of your fancy gold iWatch when new, faster, more awesome bits are released.

That's a bold bet on the form factor itself. What's the guarantee that Apple won't launch a round face watch in the 3rd iteration?

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#28

Post by radley » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:20 PM UTC

eof wrote: post #23

radley wrote: post #13

A $20k (or even $5k) gold Apple watch will be a litmus test for me - anyone I encounter will automatically be someone I wouldn't do business with. The idea of a gold Apple watch is akin to gold-plated cars / guns for drug dealers. The only value it adds it to show you have money. The fact that Apple would even consider it only demonstrate the corrosion of values and vision to me.

basically everything in traditional business atire is just demonstration of wealth if you really dig into it. what about the other ten thousand solid/plated gold watches? rolex watches containing gold are probably all over wrists of people you would be happy to do business with. don't get me wrong.. 5k for an iwatch is ridiculous

I have no problem with expensive goods, even gold watches. It's the part of "slap some gold on my Apple device" that is counter-intuitive.

There's no way Steve Jobs thought "what we're really missing is a gold version". It's not zen. It's gaudy.

The few extremely-successful people I've met that have impressed me have been very low key. Can you imagine PG wearing a gold iWatch???

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#29

Post by ssharp » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:21 PM UTC

CJefferson wrote: post #5

There is one massive different with usual watches. Expensive watches are often sold under the idea you will never have to buy another watch, and neither will your children, or your children's children. I will reasonably surprised if any new Apple Watch hasn't been made forcibly obsolete by Apple within 5 years or so, and shocked if it is still functional in 10. Furthermore (and more worrying perhaps for people paying…

I was thinking about how long an Apple Watch could take to become obsolete, given how quickly electronics, and particularly mobile electronics, become obsolete.

I kept coming back to the idea that these things could last quite some time, possibly a very long time. The watch shouldn't need to do substantial processing, only has a limited number of pixels to push and shouldn't rely on substantial processing like graphics, crunching data, decoding a/v, and other things we push our smartphones to do.

It seems like if Apple launches with good enough hardware, that software updates can keep the watch hardware relevant for many times longer than software updates can keep phones relevant.

Re: On the Pricing of Apple Watch

#30

Post by puranjay » Fri, Feb 20, 2015, 6:23 PM UTC

eof wrote: post #23

radley wrote: post #13

A $20k (or even $5k) gold Apple watch will be a litmus test for me - anyone I encounter will automatically be someone I wouldn't do business with. The idea of a gold Apple watch is akin to gold-plated cars / guns for drug dealers. The only value it adds it to show you have money. The fact that Apple would even consider it only demonstrate the corrosion of values and vision to me.

basically everything in traditional business atire is just demonstration of wealth if you really dig into it. what about the other ten thousand solid/plated gold watches? rolex watches containing gold are probably all over wrists of people you would be happy to do business with. don't get me wrong.. 5k for an iwatch is ridiculous

The $20k you pay for a Rolex is not for the watch. It's for the craftsmanship and the value of "legacy". A Rolex watch stays in the family. It gets passed around from generation to generation. My grandad had one. He gave it to my dad, who will give it to my brother, and so on.

Not really the same thing at all. Different value notions completely.