Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn • Hacker News Board

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#21

Post by btilly » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 7:43 AM UTC

codexon wrote: post #19

btilly wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re-read the article. The people who considered themselves "lucky" turned out to be more observant, and therefore would encounter unexpected opportunities. The people who considered themselves "unlucky" would miss glaring opportunities that should have been staring them in the face. If opportunities keep on dropping in your lap but not in others, after a while you're likely to feel lucky. If opportunities keep on not…

That is easily an artifact of verification bias. There was no effort in trying to introduce events that would be negative if aggressively pursued such as a Nigerian 411 or lottery scam. You certainly aren't lucky if you noticed one of these and decided it was a nice opportunity.

The perception is definitely verification bias. However there was an effort to train "unlucky" people to be more "lucky", and there was evidence that this really improved their lives. So while there are cases that it will cause them to fall for scams, on the whole it seems to be a good change.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#22

Post by codexon » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 8:07 AM UTC

btilly wrote: post #21

codexon wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is easily an artifact of verification bias. There was no effort in trying to introduce events that would be negative if aggressively pursued such as a Nigerian 411 or lottery scam. You certainly aren't lucky if you noticed one of these and decided it was a nice opportunity.

The perception is definitely verification bias. However there was an effort to train "unlucky" people to be more "lucky", and there was evidence that this really improved their lives. So while there are cases that it will cause them to fall for scams, on the whole it seems to be a good change.

The "training" wasn't actually luck, it was a training of attitude.

Sure it may have improved their lives, but attributing this to luck is as much of a mistake as saying that learning to prospect for gold is increasing my luck at getting rich.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#23

Post by nearestneighbor » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 8:26 AM UTC

I read an article about this once. Here's the gist of it: if you want to be lucky, you should gamble, etc. only when the entropy levels are higher than usual.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#24

Post by chanux » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 8:46 AM UTC

Yay! I was right there's nothing called luck.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#25

Post by donaq » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 9:01 AM UTC

Dammit, where's Eliezer Yudkowsky when you need him. I'm pretty sure he'll have an interesting take on this.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#26

Post by MikeHawk » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 9:04 AM UTC

The moral is that luck is a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's just a mindset.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#27

Post by cojadate » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 9:38 AM UTC

codexon wrote: post #7

He has convolved luck with happiness. If someone believes he is happy, he is happy. If someone believes he is the lucky, he is not necessarily lucky. Seeing the world rose colored glasses does not make you any luckier, it makes you happier. By only asking for those that self-identified as lucky or unlucky, he has failed to isolate the variable of happiness. Here is an excerpt from the book which points out the author…

The article was saying that luck was down to mindset, not psychic ability!

Richard Wiseman's claims are in no way affected by the experiment you just mentioned, because games of pure chance are not affected by mindset. Most of life is affected by mindset.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#28

Post by cojadate » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 9:42 AM UTC

codexon wrote: post #19

btilly wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Re-read the article. The people who considered themselves "lucky" turned out to be more observant, and therefore would encounter unexpected opportunities. The people who considered themselves "unlucky" would miss glaring opportunities that should have been staring them in the face. If opportunities keep on dropping in your lap but not in others, after a while you're likely to feel lucky. If opportunities keep on not…

That is easily an artifact of verification bias. There was no effort in trying to introduce events that would be negative if aggressively pursued such as a Nigerian 411 or lottery scam. You certainly aren't lucky if you noticed one of these and decided it was a nice opportunity.

You conflate two separate things there – 'noticing' and 'deciding it was a nice opportunity'.

The article claimed that noticing opportunities was a characteristic of lucky people. It did not say that lucky people were any more likely to be more risk-taking or credulous than other people.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#29

Post by cojadate » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 9:45 AM UTC

modelic3 wrote: post #6

ccarpenterg wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is more about anxiety than luck. It seems the 'unlucky' volunteers had a higher level of anxiety and thus a decreased ability to detect opportunities. Anxiety and stress can interfere in many activities.

Totally true. Anxiety saps all kinds of brain power.

I'm not so sure. I've found a certain level of anxiety can make me perform better at things. Complacency can be dangerous too in my experience.

Re: Be lucky - it's an easy skill to learn

#30

Post by Mz » Tue, Oct 13, 2009, 10:00 AM UTC

I am someone who seems to often have phenomenal "good luck". My subjective experience is that it also relates to how you treat other people. Just being consistently polite and having good boundaries opens up opportunities in a big way -- often to a degree that astonishes me.