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Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

businessinsider.com

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Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#21

Post by wuliwong »

Circumstances wrote: post #4

Evan Spiegel might have a point in regard to Facebook "imploding" respectively declining in the medium term, although I would have not placed VC sponsored Ad-Money at the top reason. Personally, I rather see a decrease of "traditional" user engagement as a growing risk for Facebook. I have the feeling that a lot of user attention is currently shifting from Facebook to other services as each FBs user stream seem is be…

Someday Facebook will lose it's position at the top, maybe sooner than later. Nobody knows that answer, not even the Snapchat CEO. While Snapchat is an insanely popular app, it isn't profitable. This is a gigantic, difficult step in the process that they may never take. My bet would be on Snapchat's demise preceding Facebook's.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#22

Post by deepinsand »

ssharp wrote: post #5

Are marketers really putting blind money on Facebook like they do on other forms of offline advertising -- or they did with online advertising during the first dot-com bubble? Or are they putting up money, measuring their CPAs against LTVs and changing advertising tactics when CPAs get too high? There are lots of choices for online advertisements today and a platform will produce profits as long as the platform produ…

My interpretation was that the marketers are very savvy at measuring the efficacy of advertising, but they're benchmarking it against an unknown LTV.

As you mention, Snapchat has no way of measuring their own LTV. If they were to do any Facebook advertising, they'd just be shooting in the dark.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#24

Post by coralreef »

josefresco wrote: post #17

Funny prediction from a CEO of a company with no revenue. At least Facebook has a revenue model to criticize. Evan Spiegel wasn't even 10 years old when Yahoo! was dominate. I wouldn't take this type of meta-business advice from someone with so little experience.

His hypothesis isn't wrong though. It may be more productive to attack his rationale than his experience.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#25

Post by wuliwong »

nakedrobot2 wrote: post #6

This is exactly what the Oculus acquisition is all about and it was a genius move.

Not to mention Instagram and WhatsApp. Not the same kind of hardware tech, but certainly diversifying. Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp are 3 of maybe the top 5 or so apps out there right now.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#26

Post by higherpurpose »

csmattryder wrote: post #15
nakedrobot2 wrote: post #6

This is exactly what the Oculus acquisition is all about and it was a genius move.

Yep, I can see FB staying in the tech game long after their core product has lost interest, due to them buying into emerging technologies. Yahoo tried it with their Tumblr acquisition (and others), but they seem to buy companies at their peak, rather during their early growth stages.

Or maybe they'll run Oculus into the ground, too, much like Yahoo did with dozens of companies it bought for a lot of money, too (Flickr would be one of the more known examples).

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#27

Post by wuliwong »

Kudos to a lot of people in this discussion who have noted that they do not have any real numbers to back up their opinions. It is funny, because the CEO of Snapchat had no numbers but didn't let that stop him! I like that their is a higher level of integrity in an HN discussion than a Business Insider article. :)

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#28

Post by lmm »

ssharp wrote: post #5

Are marketers really putting blind money on Facebook like they do on other forms of offline advertising -- or they did with online advertising during the first dot-com bubble? Or are they putting up money, measuring their CPAs against LTVs and changing advertising tactics when CPAs get too high? There are lots of choices for online advertisements today and a platform will produce profits as long as the platform produ…

When I worked in the Facebook advertising space we were definitely tracking "engagement" with our clients' ads. But this was often artificial measures like "clicked like" or "downloaded the app"; we did sometimes measure actual revenue (i.e. "clicked the ad and then bought something at the linked store") but this was less common and many ad campaigns simply weren't set up for that kind of response.

So it's not completely blind, but I suspect many companies are paying for "brand awareness" and "user engagement" - the things they can measure, like the drunk looking for his keys under the streetlight - and maybe haven't fully validated that those translate into real revenue.

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#29

Post by ProAm »

zanek wrote: post #20

The top comment on BI said exactly what I was thinking. People are acting like this guy is the Oracle of Omaha when he's flying by the seat of his pants with a auto-deleting photo app. Seriously people ? "Yes, and in his email he seems to believe that his dick pics app is "revolutionizing personal communication". Ok guy."

Well I'd agree but Twitter made it some how (or should I say twttr)

Re: Snapchat CEO predicts Facebook will implode like Yahoo

#30

Post by jim_greco »

It always amazes me the way in which people make up an entire complicated chain of events in their mind to fit their world view. He boils Facebook down to a one note company that could never respond to changes in the market.

Fed stops QE => Tech stocks cool => Less money pours into VC technology => Companies stop buying app install ads => Huge hit in Facebook revenues => Facebook implodes

Ridiculous.

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